UFC Fight Night: Covington vs. Buckley
Tampa, USA
14 Dec 2024
Lightweight
VS
52%
Alvarez
48%
Klose
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 1 · 2:48
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Alvarez
This is a genuine toss-up — Alvarez at 52% vs Klose at 48% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.
Key angles
Alvarez has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 19 points.
Alvarez has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.
Risk flags
Alvarez's chin rating of 64 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Klose has a chin rating of 54 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Alvarez
Klose
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'3"+
Height
5'9"
77"+
Reach
70"
33+
Age
38
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Alvarez
Klose
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
60.9
56.0
59.7
Performance Avg
49.7
51
Quality of Victory
32
59
Momentum Score
99
Alvarez
Klose
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
2.1
1.5
57%
Strike Accuracy
51%
6.5
Striking Style Score (/10)
3.5
4 KOs
KO Finishes
2 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
15
Head
1
4
Body
2
1
Leg
4
RangeRange
12Distance7
8Clinch0
0Ground0
Alvarez
Klose
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.2
Sub Attempts / fight
0.1
3.3
Grappling Style Score (/10)
1.9
2.3
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
1.3
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Alvarez
Klose
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
64
54
Moderate
Verdict
KO risk
1
KO/TKO Losses
2
1
Sub Losses
0
Avg R2.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.5 stoppage
5 fights ago
Last KO loss
1 fight ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
11/27 fights
Chin rating based on
13/19 fights
Alvarez
Klose
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
59
99
L · Sub · R2
W · Dec · R3
W · KO · R1
W · KO · R3
W · Sub · R2
Last 5
W · Dec · R3
L · KO · R1
W · Dec · R3
W · KO · R1
W · Dec · R3
Alvarez
Klose
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
88%
20%
4
KO / TKO Wins
2
3
Submission Wins
0
1
Decision Wins
8
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Alvarez
Klose
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
6.5
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
3.5
3.3
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
1.9
2.3
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.3
3.8
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
8.3
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
3.7
2.5
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
7.9
AlvarezKlose
Strike Zones
Alvarez
Attacking
20 landedAbsorbing
7 absorbedKlose
Attacking
7 landedAbsorbing
20 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Alvarez targets the head (75% of attacks) — Klose absorbs 75% of strikes there
🎯Klose targets the legs (57% of attacks) — Alvarez absorbs 57% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Alvarez
RND
Klose
0/0R00/0
Alvarez · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.4WinLossTrend
Klose · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.8WinLossTrend
Alvarez · Last 5
L · Sub · R2
Yaroslav AmosovRating 5Submission
UFC 328: Chimaev vs. Strickland · 2026-05
W · Dec · R3
Vicente LuqueRating 6Decision
UFC Fight Night: Oliveira vs. Gamrot · 2025-10
W · KO · R1
Drakkar KloseRating 6KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Covington vs. Buckley · 2024-12
W · KO · R3
Elves BrenerRating 6.3KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Sandhagen vs. Nurmagomedov · 2024-08
W · Sub · R2
Marc DiakieseRating 5.4Submission
UFC Fight Night: Aspinall vs. Tybura · 2023-07
Klose · Last 5
W · Dec · R3
Edson BarbozaRating 5Decision
UFC 319: Du Plessis vs. Chimaev · 2025-08
L · KO · R1
Joel AlvarezRating 2.8KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Covington vs. Buckley · 2024-12
W · Dec · R3
Joaquim SilvaRating 5.1Decision
UFC 301: Pantoja vs. Erceg · 2024-05
W · KO · R1
Joe SoleckiRating 5.7KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Dariush vs. Tsarukyan · 2023-12
W · Dec · R3
Rafa GarciaRating 5.3Decision
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