UFC 39: The Warriors Return
Uncasville, USA
27 Sept 2002
Lightweight
VS
55%
Penn
45%
Serra
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
BP
BJ Penn
"The Prodigy"
16 – 14
5'9"70" reachOrthodox47 yrs7-fight slideWell-Rounded
CFR 22
MS
Matt Serra
"The Terra"
11 – 7
Well-Rounded51 yrsOrthodox68" reach5'6"
CFR 18

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Penn

This is a genuine toss-up — Penn at 55% vs Serra at 45% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.

Key angles

Penn has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.

Risk flags

Penn's chin rating of 0 flags durability concerns based on KO history.

Serra has a chin rating of 46 — a potential KO vulnerability.

Penn
Serra
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'9"+
Height
5'6"
70"+
Reach
68"
47+
Age
51
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Penn
Serra
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
22.2
18.2
56.9
Performance Avg
53.3
63
Quality of Victory
56
100
Momentum Score
52
Penn
Serra
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.0
0.7
51%
Strike Accuracy
37%
6.0
Striking Style Score (/10)
3.9
6 KOs
KO Finishes
2 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
5
Head
1
2
Body
0
6
Leg
1
RangeRange
8Distance2
4Clinch0
1Ground0
Penn
Serra
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
—
Sub Attempts / fight
0.2
2.9
Grappling Style Score (/10)
2.5
2.0
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
1.8
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Penn
Serra
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
0
46
2 consec. KOs
Verdict
KO risk
4
KO/TKO Losses
2
1
Sub Losses
0
Avg R3.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R2.5 stoppage
3 fights ago
Last KO loss
3 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
27/30 fights
Chin rating based on
14/18 fights
Penn
Serra
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
100
52
7-fight 📉 slide
Current form
L · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R1
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R2
L · KO · R3
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
W · KO · R1
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R2
W · KO · R1
Penn
Serra
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
83%
43%
6
KO / TKO Wins
2
4
Submission Wins
1
2
Decision Wins
4

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Penn
Serra
Striking6.0 / 3.9Volume1.6 / 5.6Grappling2.9 / 2.5Wrestling2.0 / 1.8Submission3.3 / 1.4Pressure7.3 / 4.5
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
6.0
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
3.9
2.9
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
2.5
2.0
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.8
3.3
Submission
Submission attack frequency
1.4
7.3
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
4.5
1.6
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
5.6
Penn
Strike Zones
Serra
Penn
Attacking
5HEAD2BODY6LEGS13 landed
Absorbing
1HEAD0BODY1LEGS2 absorbed
Serra
Attacking
1HEAD0BODY1LEGS2 landed
Absorbing
5HEAD2BODY6LEGS13 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Penn targets the legs (46% of attacks) — Serra absorbs 46% of strikes there
🎯Serra targets the head (50% of attacks) — Penn absorbs 50% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Penn
RND
Serra
0/0R00/0

Penn · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.8
0105.0W5.0W5.0W5.5L5.2W4.5W5.0W5.5L2.8L5.2W5.1W5.2W3.4L5.4W4.5W5.5L5.5L5.0W5.5L5.5L2.8L3.7L5.5L1.5L6.0L2001-052006-032009-122017-012019-05
WinLossTrend

Serra · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.8
0104.0L4.5W5.0W5.5L5.5L4.5W4.5W5.5L4.5W5.0W2.1L5.5L5.0W5.5L2001-052003-022006-112010-022010-09
WinLossTrend

Penn · Last 5

L · Dec · R3
Clay GuidaRating 6
Decision
UFC 237: Namajunas vs. Andrade · 2019-05
L · Sub · R1
Ryan HallRating 1.5
Submission
UFC 232: Jones vs. Gustafsson 2 · 2018-12
L · Dec · R3
Dennis SiverRating 5.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Chiesa vs. Lee · 2017-06
L · KO · R2
Yair RodriguezRating 3.7
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Rodriguez vs. Penn · 2017-01
L · KO · R3
Frankie EdgarRating 2.8
KO/TKO
The Ultimate Fighter: Team Edgar vs. Team Penn Finale · 2014-07

Serra · Last 5

L · Dec · R3
Chris LytleRating 5.5
Decision
UFC 119: Mir vs Cro Cop · 2010-09
W · KO · R1
Frank TriggRating 5
KO/TKO
UFC 109: Relentless · 2010-02
L · Dec · R3
Matt HughesRating 5.5
Decision
UFC 98: Evans vs Machida · 2009-05
L · KO · R2
Georges St-PierreRating 2.1
KO/TKO
UFC 83: Serra vs St-Pierre 2 · 2008-04
W · KO · R1
Georges St-PierreRating 5
KO/TKO
UFC 69: Shootout · 2007-04

News & Media

BJ Penn · Matt Serra
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