METRICS GUIDE
Every stat on this page, explained
All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.
UFC 39: The Warriors Return
Uncasville, USA
27 Sept 2002
Lightweight
VS
55%
Penn
45%
Serra
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
★ Official Result
BJ PennwinsDecisionR3 · 5:00
def. Matt Serra · UFC 39: The Warriors Return
Fight Report
Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result
Prediction vs Result
We predicted
Penn
→
Actual result
Penn wins
Decision · R3
Pre-fight analysis
This is a genuine toss-up — Penn at 55% vs Serra at 45% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.
Risk flags
Penn's chin rating of 0 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Serra has a chin rating of 46 — a potential KO vulnerability.
This Fight — Statistics
Actual stats from this bout
PennSerra
0
Sig. Strikes
0
0.0
Strikes / min (SLpM)
0.0
—
Strike Accuracy
—
Penn
Serra
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'9"+
Height
5'6"
70"+
Reach
68"
47+
Age
52
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Penn
Serra
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
22.2
18.2
56.9
Performance Avg
53.3
63
Quality of Victory
56
100
Momentum Score
52
Penn
Serra
Striking
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
6.0
/ 10
3.9
/ 10
7.3
Style: Pressure
4.5
1.6
Style: Volume
5.6
6 KO wins
Finish Rate (strikes)
2 KO wins
Per-minute strike stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Strike targetStrike target
5
Head
1
2
Body
0
6
Leg
1
RangeRange
8Distance2
4Clinch0
1Ground0
Penn
Serra
Grappling
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
2.9
/ 10
2.5
/ 10
2.0
Wrestling Style (/10)
1.8
3.3
Submission Style (/10)
1.4
4
Submission wins
1
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Penn
Serra
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
0
46
2 consec. KOs
Verdict
KO risk
4
KO/TKO Losses
2
1
Sub Losses
0
Avg R3.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R2.5 stoppage
3 fights ago
Last KO loss
3 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
27/30 fights
Chin rating based on
14/18 fights
Penn
Serra
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
100
52
7-fight 📉 slide
Current form
L · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R1
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R2
L · KO · R3
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
W · KO · R1
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R2
W · KO · R1
Penn
Serra
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
83%
43%
6
KO / TKO Wins
2
4
Submission Wins
1
2
Decision Wins
4
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Penn
Serra
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
6.0
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
3.9
2.9
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
2.5
2.0
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.8
3.3
Submission
Submission attack frequency
1.4
7.3
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
4.5
1.6
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
5.6
PennSerra
Strike Zones
Penn
Attacking
13 landedAbsorbing
2 absorbedSerra
Attacking
2 landedAbsorbing
13 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Penn targets the legs (46% of attacks) — Serra absorbs 46% of strikes there
🎯Serra targets the head (50% of attacks) — Penn absorbs 50% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Penn
RND
Serra
0/0R00/0
Penn · Last 5
L · Dec · R3
Clay GuidaDecision
UFC 237: Namajunas vs. Andrade · 2019-05
L · Sub · R1
Ryan HallSubmission
UFC 232: Jones vs. Gustafsson 2 · 2018-12
L · Dec · R3
Dennis SiverDecision
UFC Fight Night: Chiesa vs. Lee · 2017-06
L · KO · R2
Yair RodriguezKO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Rodriguez vs. Penn · 2017-01
L · KO · R3
Frankie EdgarKO/TKO
The Ultimate Fighter: Team Edgar vs. Team Penn Finale · 2014-07
Serra · Last 5
L · Dec · R3
Chris LytleDecision
UFC 119: Mir vs Cro Cop · 2010-09
W · KO · R1
Frank TriggKO/TKO
UFC 109: Relentless · 2010-02
L · Dec · R3
Matt HughesDecision
UFC 98: Evans vs Machida · 2009-05
L · KO · R2
Georges St-PierreKO/TKO
UFC 83: Serra vs St-Pierre 2 · 2008-04
W · KO · R1
Georges St-PierreKO/TKO
UFC 69: Shootout · 2007-04