UFC Fight Night: Rozenstruik vs. Almeida
Charlotte, USA
13 May 2023
Welterweight
VS
45%
Rodriguez
55%
Garry
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 1 · 2:57
Daniel
Daniel Rodriguez
"D-Rod"
20 – 5
6'1"74" reachSouthpaw39 yrs3-fight win streakWell-Rounded
CFR 53
Ian
Ian Machado Garry
"The Future"
17 – 1
Well-Rounded2-fight win streak28 yrsOrthodox74" reach6'3"
CFR 65

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Garry

This is a genuine toss-up — Rodriguez at 45% vs Garry at 55% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.

Key angles

The CFR gap of 12 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.

Striking split: Rodriguez throws more volume but Garry connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.

Risk flags

Rodriguez's chin rating of 62 flags durability concerns based on KO history.

Rodriguez
Garry
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'1"
Height
+6'3"
74"
Reach
74"
39
Age
+28
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
Rodriguez
Garry
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
53.3
64.8
50.7
Performance Avg
57.1
37
Quality of Victory
35
70
Momentum Score
100
Rodriguez
Garry
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
2.9
2.0
50%
Strike Accuracy
59%
4.4
Striking Style Score (/10)
4.8
3 KOs
KO Finishes
3 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
2
Head
19
2
Body
4
3
Leg
0
RangeRange
7Distance12
0Clinch0
0Ground11
Rodriguez
Garry
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
2.2
/ 10
1.7
/ 10
1.6
Wrestling Style (/10)
1.2
1.0
Submission Style (/10)
0.0
1
Submission wins
0
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Rodriguez
Garry
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
62
98
Moderate
Verdict
Never stopped
1
KO/TKO Losses
0
1
Sub Losses
0
Avg R1.0 stoppage
KO round context
—
4 fights ago
Last KO loss
—
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
14/25 fights
Chin rating based on
11/18 fights
Rodriguez
Garry
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
70
100
3-fight 🔥 win streak
Current form
2-fight 🔥 win streak
W · Dec · R3
W · KO · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R1
Last 5
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R5
L · Dec · R5
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
Rodriguez
Garry
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
40%
30%
3
KO / TKO Wins
3
1
Submission Wins
0
6
Decision Wins
7

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Rodriguez
Garry
Striking4.4 / 4.8Volume6.2 / 7.4Grappling2.2 / 1.7Wrestling1.6 / 1.2Submission1.0 / 0.0Pressure4.9 / 4.8
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
4.4
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
4.8
2.2
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
1.7
1.6
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.2
1.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
4.9
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
4.8
6.2
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
7.4
Rodriguez
Strike Zones
Garry
Rodriguez
Attacking
2HEAD2BODY3LEGS7 landed
Absorbing
19HEAD4BODY0LEGS23 absorbed
Garry
Attacking
19HEAD4BODY0LEGS23 landed
Absorbing
2HEAD2BODY3LEGS7 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Rodriguez targets the legs (43% of attacks) — Garry absorbs 43% of strikes there
🎯Garry targets the head (83% of attacks) — Rodriguez absorbs 83% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Rodriguez
RND
Garry
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0

Rodriguez · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.0
0105.3W5.3W5.0W5.8L4.5W5.0W4.5W5.3W4.6L3.0L5.8L4.5W6.0W5.1W2020-022021-042022-112025-052025-07
WinLossTrend

Garry · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.7
0105.0W4.5W5.3W5.9W5.9W5.1W5.5W5.3W7.6L6.7W5.6W2021-112023-032024-022025-042025-11
WinLossTrend

Rodriguez · Last 5

W · Dec · R3
Kevin HollandRating 5.1
Decision
UFC 318: Holloway vs. Poirier 3 · 2025-07
W · KO · R3
Santiago PonzinibbioRating 6
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Sandhagen vs. Figueiredo · 2025-05
W · Dec · R3
Alex MoronoRating 4.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Royval vs. Taira · 2024-10
L · Dec · R3
Kelvin GastelumRating 5.8
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Whittaker vs. Aliskerov · 2024-06
L · KO · R1
Ian Machado GarryRating 3
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Rozenstruik vs. Almeida · 2023-05

Garry · Last 5

W · Dec · R3
Belal MuhammadRating 5.6
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Tsarukyan vs. Hooker · 2025-11
W · Dec · R5
Carlos PratesRating 6.7
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Machado Garry vs. Prates · 2025-04
L · Dec · R5
Shavkat RakhmonovRating 7.6
Decision
UFC 310: Pantoja vs. Asakura · 2024-12
W · Dec · R3
Michael PageRating 5.3
Decision
UFC 303: Pereira vs. Prochazka 2 · 2024-06
W · Dec · R3
Geoff NealRating 5.5
Decision
UFC 298: Volkanovski vs. Topuria · 2024-02

News & Media

Daniel Rodriguez · Ian Machado Garry
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