UFC 206: Holloway vs. Pettis
Toronto, Canada
10 Dec 2016
Bantamweight
VS
56%
Gagnon
44%
Lopez
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
MG
Mitch Gagnon
12 – 5
5'5"65" reachSouthpaw41 yrs3-fight slideSubmission Hunter
CFR 17
ML
Matthew Lopez
10 – 4
Well-Rounded3-fight slide39 yrsSouthpaw69" reach5'7"
CFR 14

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Gagnon

This is a genuine toss-up — Gagnon at 56% vs Lopez at 44% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.

Key angles

Lopez has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.

Risk flags

Lopez has a chin rating of 42 — a potential KO vulnerability.

Gagnon
Lopez
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'5"
Height
+5'7"
65"
Reach
+69"
41
Age
+39
Southpaw
Stance
Southpaw
Gagnon
Lopez
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
17.4
13.7
48.0
Performance Avg
38.8
47
Quality of Victory
43
38
Momentum Score
33
Gagnon
Lopez
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.0
1.5
46%
Strike Accuracy
60%
1.0
Striking Style Score (/10)
5.7
0 KOs
KO Finishes
1 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
3
Head
6
0
Body
3
1
Leg
0
RangeRange
2Distance5
2Clinch1
0Ground3
Gagnon
Lopez
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.2
Sub Attempts / fight
—
6.6
Grappling Style Score (/10)
1.2
4.6
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
0.8
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Gagnon
Lopez
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
72
42
Never stopped
Verdict
2 consec. KOs
0
KO/TKO Losses
2
2
Sub Losses
1
—
KO round context
Avg R2.5 stoppage
—
Last KO loss
1 fight ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
8/17 fights
Chin rating based on
6/14 fights
Gagnon
Lopez
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
38
33
3-fight 📉 slide
Current form
3-fight 📉 slide
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R3
W · Sub · R1
W · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R2
L · KO · R3
W · KO · R1
W · Dec · R3
Gagnon
Lopez
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
75%
50%
0
KO / TKO Wins
1
3
Submission Wins
0
1
Decision Wins
1

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Gagnon
Lopez
Striking1.0 / 5.7Volume3.0 / 4.7Grappling6.6 / 1.2Wrestling4.6 / 0.8Submission7.5 / 0.0Pressure6.8 / 4.5
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
1.0
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
5.7
6.6
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
1.2
4.6
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.8
7.5
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
6.8
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
4.5
3.0
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
4.7
Gagnon
Strike Zones
Lopez
Gagnon
Attacking
3HEAD0BODY1LEGS4 landed
Absorbing
6HEAD3BODY0LEGS9 absorbed
Lopez
Attacking
6HEAD3BODY0LEGS9 landed
Absorbing
3HEAD0BODY1LEGS4 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Gagnon targets the head (75% of attacks) — Lopez absorbs 75% of strikes there
🎯Lopez targets the head (67% of attacks) — Gagnon absorbs 67% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Gagnon
RND
Lopez
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0

Gagnon · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.8
0104.0L5.0W5.0W4.5W5.0W4.0L5.5L5.5L2012-072013-092014-102016-122019-05
WinLossTrend

Lopez · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.4
0104.4L4.5W5.0W4.0L2.8L5.9L2016-072016-122017-062017-112018-042018-12
WinLossTrend

Gagnon · Last 5

L · Dec · R3
Cole SmithRating 5.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Iaquinta vs. Cowboy · 2019-05
L · Dec · R3
Matthew LopezRating 5.5
Decision
UFC 206: Holloway vs. Pettis · 2016-12
L · Sub · R3
Renan BaraoRating 4
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Machida vs Dollaway · 2014-12
W · Sub · R1
Roman SalazarRating 5
Submission
UFC Fight Night: MacDonald vs Saffiedine · 2014-10
W · Dec · R3
Tim GormanRating 4.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Bisping vs Kennedy · 2014-04

Lopez · Last 5

L · Dec · R3
Brad KatonaRating 5.9
Decision
UFC 231: Holloway vs. Ortega · 2018-12
L · KO · R2
Alejandro PerezRating 2.8
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Poirier vs. Gaethje · 2018-04
L · KO · R3
Raphael AssuncaoRating 4
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Poirier vs. Pettis · 2017-11
W · KO · R1
Johnny EduardoRating 5
KO/TKO
UFC 212: Aldo vs. Holloway · 2017-06
W · Dec · R3
Mitch GagnonRating 4.5
Decision
UFC 206: Holloway vs. Pettis · 2016-12

News & Media

Mitch Gagnon · Matthew Lopez
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