METRICS GUIDE
Every stat on this page, explained
All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.
UFC 206: Holloway vs. Pettis
Toronto, Canada
10 Dec 2016
Bantamweight
VS
56%
Gagnon
44%
Lopez
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
★ Official Result
Matthew LopezwinsDecisionR3 · 5:00
def. Mitch Gagnon · UFC 206: Holloway vs. Pettis
Fight Report
Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result
Prediction vs Result
We predicted
Gagnon
→
Actual result
Lopez wins
Decision · R3
Pre-fight analysis
This is a genuine toss-up — Gagnon at 56% vs Lopez at 44% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.
Risk flags
Lopez has a chin rating of 42 — a potential KO vulnerability.
This Fight — Statistics
Actual stats from this bout
GagnonLopez
0
Sig. Strikes
0
0.0
Strikes / min (SLpM)
0.0
—
Strike Accuracy
—
Gagnon
Lopez
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'5"
Height
+5'7"
65"
Reach
+69"
41
Age
+39
Southpaw
Stance
Southpaw
Gagnon
Lopez
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
17.4
13.7
48.0
Performance Avg
38.8
47
Quality of Victory
43
38
Momentum Score
33
Gagnon
Lopez
Striking
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
1.0
/ 10
5.7
/ 10
6.8
Style: Pressure
4.5
3.0
Style: Volume
4.7
0 KO wins
Finish Rate (strikes)
1 KO wins
Per-minute strike stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Strike targetStrike target
3
Head
6
0
Body
3
1
Leg
0
RangeRange
2Distance5
2Clinch1
0Ground3
Gagnon
Lopez
Grappling
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
6.6
/ 10
1.2
/ 10
4.6
Wrestling Style (/10)
0.8
7.5
Submission Style (/10)
0.0
3
Submission wins
0
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Gagnon
Lopez
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
72
42
Never stopped
Verdict
2 consec. KOs
0
KO/TKO Losses
2
2
Sub Losses
1
—
KO round context
Avg R2.5 stoppage
—
Last KO loss
1 fight ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
8/17 fights
Chin rating based on
6/14 fights
Gagnon
Lopez
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
38
33
3-fight 📉 slide
Current form
3-fight 📉 slide
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R3
W · Sub · R1
W · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R2
L · KO · R3
W · KO · R1
W · Dec · R3
Gagnon
Lopez
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
75%
50%
0
KO / TKO Wins
1
3
Submission Wins
0
1
Decision Wins
1
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Gagnon
Lopez
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
1.0
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
5.7
6.6
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
1.2
4.6
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.8
7.5
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
6.8
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
4.5
3.0
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
4.7
GagnonLopez
Strike Zones
Gagnon
Attacking
4 landedAbsorbing
9 absorbedLopez
Attacking
9 landedAbsorbing
4 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Gagnon targets the head (75% of attacks) — Lopez absorbs 75% of strikes there
🎯Lopez targets the head (67% of attacks) — Gagnon absorbs 67% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Gagnon
RND
Lopez
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0
Gagnon · Last 5
L · Dec · R3
Cole SmithDecision
UFC Fight Night: Iaquinta vs. Cowboy · 2019-05
L · Dec · R3
Matthew LopezDecision
UFC 206: Holloway vs. Pettis · 2016-12
L · Sub · R3
Renan BaraoSubmission
UFC Fight Night: Machida vs Dollaway · 2014-12
W · Sub · R1
Roman SalazarSubmission
UFC Fight Night: MacDonald vs Saffiedine · 2014-10
W · Dec · R3
Tim GormanDecision
UFC Fight Night: Bisping vs Kennedy · 2014-04
Lopez · Last 5
L · Dec · R3
Brad KatonaDecision
UFC 231: Holloway vs. Ortega · 2018-12
L · KO · R2
Alejandro PerezKO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Poirier vs. Gaethje · 2018-04
L · KO · R3
Raphael AssuncaoKO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Poirier vs. Pettis · 2017-11
W · KO · R1
Johnny EduardoKO/TKO
UFC 212: Aldo vs. Holloway · 2017-06
W · Dec · R3
Mitch GagnonDecision
UFC 206: Holloway vs. Pettis · 2016-12