UFC 125: Resolution
Las Vegas, USA
1 Jan 2011
Featherweight
VS
97%
Poirier
3%
Grispi
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
Dustin
Dustin Poirier
"The Diamond"
30 – 10
5'9"72" reachSouthpaw37 yrs2-fight slideWell-Rounded
CFR 61
JG
Josh Grispi
"The Fluke"
14 – 5
Well-Rounded4-fight slide37 yrsOrthodox74" reach5'11"
CFR 2

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Poirier

Poirier is a strong favourite at 97% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.

Key angles

The CFR gap of 60 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.

Poirier has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 50 points.

Poirier has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.

Risk flags

Poirier's chin rating of 0 flags durability concerns based on KO history.

Grispi has a chin rating of 62 — a potential KO vulnerability.

Poirier
Grispi
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'9"
Height
+5'11"
72"
Reach
+74"
37
Age
37
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
Poirier
Grispi
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
61.4
1.7
58.2
Performance Avg
0.0
50
Quality of Victory
0
100
Momentum Score
0
Poirier
Grispi
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.7
0.4
54%
Strike Accuracy
49%
6.0
Striking Style Score (/10)
0.0
10 KOs
KO Finishes
0 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
11
Head
4
1
Body
1
2
Leg
0
RangeRange
7Distance3
7Clinch1
0Ground1
Poirier
Grispi
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
2.2
/ 10
0.0
/ 10
1.6
Wrestling Style (/10)
0.0
1.8
Submission Style (/10)
0.0
4
Submission wins
0
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Poirier
Grispi
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
0
62
KO risk
Verdict
Moderate
3
KO/TKO Losses
1
4
Sub Losses
1
Avg R1.3 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R3.0 stoppage
3 fights ago
Last KO loss
2 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
32/40 fights
Chin rating based on
4/19 fights
Poirier
Grispi
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
100
0
2-fight 📉 slide
Current form
4-fight 📉 slide
L · Dec · R5
L · Sub · R5
W · KO · R2
L · KO · R2
W · Sub · R3
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R1
L · KO · R3
L · Dec · R3
Poirier
Grispi
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
64%
0%
10
KO / TKO Wins
0
4
Submission Wins
0
8
Decision Wins
0

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Poirier
Grispi
Striking6.0 / 0.0Volume4.0 / 0.0Grappling2.2 / 0.0Wrestling1.6 / 0.0Submission1.8 / 0.0Pressure6.6 / 0.0
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
6.0
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
0.0
2.2
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
0.0
1.6
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.0
1.8
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
6.6
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
0.0
4.0
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
0.0
Poirier
Strike Zones
Grispi
Poirier
Attacking
11HEAD1BODY2LEGS14 landed
Absorbing
4HEAD1BODY0LEGS5 absorbed
Grispi
Attacking
4HEAD1BODY0LEGS5 landed
Absorbing
11HEAD1BODY2LEGS14 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Poirier targets the head (79% of attacks) — Grispi absorbs 79% of strikes there
🎯Grispi targets the head (80% of attacks) — Poirier absorbs 80% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Poirier
RND
Grispi
0/0R00/0

Poirier · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.1
0104.5W4.5W5.2W6.1W3.9L5.0W6.0L4.5W5.0W5.2W3.5L6.0W5.0W4.5W5.7W1.6L4.9W5.2W6.9W5.1W5.6W2.8L5.4W7.1W6.0W4.2L6.3W3.7L6.9W6.0L6.6L2011-012013-122017-022021-072025-07
WinLossTrend

Grispi · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.6
0106.8L4.0L1.9L5.5L2011-012011-062012-082013-02
WinLossTrend

Poirier · Last 5

L · Dec · R5
Max HollowayRating 6.6
Decision
UFC 318: Holloway vs. Poirier 3 · 2025-07
L · Sub · R5
Islam MakhachevRating 6
Submission
UFC 302: Makhachev vs. Poirier · 2024-06
W · KO · R2
Benoit Saint DenisRating 6.9
KO/TKO
UFC 299: O'Malley vs. Vera 2 · 2024-03
L · KO · R2
Justin GaethjeRating 3.7
KO/TKO
UFC 291: Poirier vs. Gaethje 2 · 2023-07
W · Sub · R3
Michael ChandlerRating 6.3
Submission
UFC 281: Adesanya vs. Pereira · 2022-11

Grispi · Last 4

L · Dec · R3
Andy OgleRating 5.5
Decision
UFC on FUEL TV: Barao vs McDonald · 2013-02
L · Sub · R1
Rani YahyaRating 1.9
Submission
UFC on FOX: Shogun vs Vera · 2012-08
L · KO · R3
George RoopRating 4
KO/TKO
The Ultimate Fighter: Team Lesnar vs Team dos Santos Finale · 2011-06
L · Dec · R3
Dustin PoirierRating 6.8
Decision
UFC 125: Resolution · 2011-01

News & Media

Dustin Poirier · Josh Grispi
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