UFC 224: Nunes vs. Pennington
Rio de Janeiro, Brazil
12 May 2018
Bantamweight
VS
35%
Lineker
65%
Kelleher
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 3 · 3:43
JL
John Lineker
"Hands of Stone"
31 – 9
5'3"67" reachOrthodox35 yrsStriker
CFR 22
Brian
Brian Kelleher
"Boom"
24 – 16
Well-Rounded4-fight slide39 yrsSwitch66" reach5'6"
CFR 41

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Kelleher

Kelleher holds a meaningful edge at 65% per the CFR ratings — but Lineker has real paths to victory.

Key angles

The CFR gap of 19 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.

Striking split: Lineker throws more volume but Kelleher connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.

Risk flags

Kelleher has a chin rating of 0 — a potential KO vulnerability.

Lineker
Kelleher
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'3"
Height
+5'6"
67"+
Reach
66"
35+
Age
39
Orthodox
Stance
Switch
Lineker
Kelleher
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
21.8
40.8
56.0
Performance Avg
44.5
43
Quality of Victory
43
83
Momentum Score
61
Lineker
Kelleher
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
2.4
1.7
42%
Strike Accuracy
44%
6.5
Striking Style Score (/10)
3.4
6 KOs
KO Finishes
2 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
18
Head
14
3
Body
1
0
Leg
0
RangeRange
20Distance14
1Clinch0
0Ground1
Lineker
Kelleher
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
—
Sub Attempts / fight
0.1
1.7
Grappling Style Score (/10)
3.9
1.2
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
2.7
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Lineker
Kelleher
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
82
0
Never stopped
Verdict
KO risk
0
KO/TKO Losses
2
1
Sub Losses
5
—
KO round context
Avg R2.0 stoppage
—
Last KO loss
1 fight ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
16/40 fights
Chin rating based on
17/40 fights
Lineker
Kelleher
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
83
61
Current form
4-fight 📉 slide
L · Dec · R3
W · KO · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R5
Last 5
L · Sub · R1
L · KO · R1
L · Sub · R1
L · Sub · R1
W · Dec · R3
Lineker
Kelleher
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
58%
63%
6
KO / TKO Wins
2
1
Submission Wins
3
5
Decision Wins
3

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Lineker
Kelleher
Striking6.5 / 3.4Volume4.8 / 3.9Grappling1.7 / 3.9Wrestling1.2 / 2.7Submission0.8 / 3.8Pressure6.3 / 5.8
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
6.5
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
3.4
1.7
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
3.9
1.2
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
2.7
0.8
Submission
Submission attack frequency
3.8
6.3
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
5.8
4.8
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
3.9
Lineker
Strike Zones
Kelleher
Lineker
Attacking
18HEAD3BODY0LEGS21 landed
Absorbing
14HEAD1BODY0LEGS15 absorbed
Kelleher
Attacking
14HEAD1BODY0LEGS15 landed
Absorbing
18HEAD3BODY0LEGS21 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Lineker targets the head (86% of attacks) — Kelleher absorbs 86% of strikes there
🎯Kelleher targets the head (93% of attacks) — Lineker absorbs 93% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Lineker
RND
Kelleher
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0

Lineker · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.1
0102.8L4.5W5.2W5.2W5.0W5.5L5.5W4.5W5.0W5.7W5.0W4.5W5.6L5.3W5.8W7.0L2012-052013-102015-092016-122019-04
WinLossTrend

Kelleher · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.1
0105.0W2.3L5.5W4.5W4.0L2.4L5.8W5.2W5.5L5.0W6.2L4.5W4.5W2.8L2.6L2.6L1.7L2017-062018-122021-022023-122024-07
WinLossTrend

Lineker · Last 5

L · Dec · R3
Cory SandhagenRating 7
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Jacare vs. Hermansson · 2019-04
W · KO · R3
Brian KelleherRating 5.8
KO/TKO
UFC 224: Nunes vs. Pennington · 2018-05
W · Dec · R3
Marlon VeraRating 5.3
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Brunson vs. Machida · 2017-10
L · Dec · R3
TJ DillashawRating 5.6
Decision
UFC 207: Nunes vs. Rousey · 2016-12
W · Dec · R5
John DodsonRating 4.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Lineker vs. Dodson · 2016-10

Kelleher · Last 5

L · Sub · R1
Cody GibsonRating 1.7
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Lemos vs. Jandiroba · 2024-07
L · KO · R1
Cody GarbrandtRating 2.6
KO/TKO
UFC 296: Edwards vs. Covington · 2023-12
L · Sub · R1
Mario BautistaRating 2.6
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Tsarukyan vs. Gamrot · 2022-06
L · Sub · R1
Umar NurmagomedovRating 2.8
Submission
UFC 272: Covington vs. Masvidal · 2022-03
W · Dec · R3
Kevin CroomRating 4.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Kattar vs. Chikadze · 2022-01

News & Media

John Lineker · Brian Kelleher
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