UFC 136: Edgar vs Maynard 3
Houston, USA
8 Oct 2011
Middleweight
VS
51%
Simpson
49%
Schafer
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Simpson
This is a genuine toss-up — Simpson at 51% vs Schafer at 49% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.
Key angles
Schafer has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 22 points.
Striking split: Schafer throws more volume but Simpson connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.
Risk flags
Simpson's chin rating of 52 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Schafer has a chin rating of 28 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Simpson
Schafer
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'0"
Height
+6'3"
73"
Reach
+76"
51
Age
+48
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Simpson
Schafer
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
17.5
16.5
46.0
Performance Avg
46.9
34
Quality of Victory
56
76
Momentum Score
33
Simpson
Schafer
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.0
1.0
49%
Strike Accuracy
41%
4.1
Striking Style Score (/10)
4.0
2 KOs
KO Finishes
1 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
8
Head
4
3
Body
0
0
Leg
0
RangeRange
11Distance4
0Clinch0
0Ground0
Simpson
Schafer
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
—
Sub Attempts / fight
0.6
1.7
Grappling Style Score (/10)
5.3
1.2
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
3.7
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Simpson
Schafer
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
52
28
KO risk
Verdict
2 consec. KOs
2
KO/TKO Losses
3
0
Sub Losses
0
Avg R2.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.7 stoppage
Most recent fight
Last KO loss
Most recent fight
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
11/17 fights
Chin rating based on
9/22 fights
Simpson
Schafer
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
76
33
Current form
4-fight 📉 slide
L · KO · R2
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · KO · R2
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · KO · R1
Simpson
Schafer
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
29%
100%
2
KO / TKO Wins
1
0
Submission Wins
2
5
Decision Wins
0
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Simpson
Schafer
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
4.1
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
4.0
1.7
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
5.3
1.2
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
3.7
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
6.7
3.9
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
8.0
7.0
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
0.7
SimpsonSchafer
Strike Zones
Simpson
Attacking
11 landedAbsorbing
4 absorbedSchafer
Attacking
4 landedAbsorbing
11 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Simpson targets the head (73% of attacks) — Schafer absorbs 73% of strikes there
🎯Schafer targets the head (100% of attacks) — Simpson absorbs 100% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Simpson
RND
Schafer
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0
Simpson · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.5WinLossTrend
Schafer · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.3WinLossTrend
Simpson · Last 5
L · KO · R2
Mike PierceRating 2.8KO/TKO
UFC on FX: Browne vs Bigfoot · 2012-10
W · Dec · R3
Kenny RobertsonRating 4.5Decision
UFC on FUEL TV: Munoz vs Weidman · 2012-07
L · Dec · R3
Ronny MarkesRating 5.5Decision
UFC on FUEL TV: Sanchez vs Ellenberger · 2012-02
W · Dec · R3
Eric SchaferRating 4.5Decision
UFC 136: Edgar vs Maynard 3 · 2011-10
W · Dec · R3
Brad TavaresRating 4.5Decision
UFC 132: Cruz vs Faber · 2011-07
Schafer · Last 5
L · KO · R2
Jorge RiveraRating 2.8KO/TKO
UFC on FX: Guillard vs Miller · 2012-01
L · Dec · R3
Aaron SimpsonRating 5.5Decision
UFC 136: Edgar vs Maynard 3 · 2011-10
L · Dec · R3
Jason BrilzRating 5.5Decision
UFC Live: Vera vs Jones · 2010-03
L · Dec · R3
Ryan BaderRating 5.5Decision
UFC 104: Machida vs Shogun · 2009-10
W · KO · R1
Antonio MendesRating 5KO/TKO
UFC 93: Franklin vs Henderson · 2009-01