UFC on FOX: Holm vs. Shevchenko
Chicago, USA
23 Jul 2016
Lightweight
VS
87%
Barboza
13%
Melendez
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
Edson
Edson Barboza
"Junior"
24 – 14
5'11"75" reachOrthodox40 yrs3-fight slideWell-Rounded
CFR 45
GM
Gilbert Melendez
"El Nino"
22 – 8
Well-Rounded5-fight slide44 yrsOrthodox73" reach5'9"
CFR 7

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Barboza

Barboza is a strong favourite at 87% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.

Key angles

The CFR gap of 38 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.

Barboza has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 15 points.

Barboza has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.

Risk flags

Barboza's chin rating of 0 flags durability concerns based on KO history.

Barboza
Melendez
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'11"+
Height
5'9"
75"+
Reach
73"
40+
Age
44
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Barboza
Melendez
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
44.9
7.0
46.3
Performance Avg
20.7
40
Quality of Victory
25
60
Momentum Score
0
Barboza
Melendez
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.3
0.9
46%
Strike Accuracy
30%
6.1
Striking Style Score (/10)
0.3
9 KOs
KO Finishes
0 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
5
Head
13
1
Body
1
12
Leg
0
RangeRange
18Distance14
0Clinch0
0Ground0
Barboza
Melendez
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.0
Sub Attempts / fight
—
1.2
Grappling Style Score (/10)
2.4
0.8
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
1.7
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Barboza
Melendez
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
0
78
KO risk
Verdict
Never stopped
4
KO/TKO Losses
0
2
Sub Losses
1
Avg R1.5 stoppage
KO round context
—
Most recent fight
Last KO loss
—
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
32/38 fights
Chin rating based on
7/30 fights
Barboza
Melendez
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
60
0
3-fight 📉 slide
Current form
5-fight 📉 slide
L · KO · R1
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R5
W · Dec · R5
W · KO · R1
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R2
Barboza
Melendez
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
50%
0%
9
KO / TKO Wins
0
0
Submission Wins
0
9
Decision Wins
1

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Barboza
Melendez
Striking6.1 / 0.3Volume5.1 / 8.3Grappling1.2 / 2.4Wrestling0.8 / 1.7Submission0.0 / 0.0Pressure5.2 / 0.4
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
6.1
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
0.3
1.2
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
2.4
0.8
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.7
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
5.2
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
0.4
5.1
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
8.3
Barboza
Strike Zones
Melendez
Barboza
Attacking
5HEAD1BODY12LEGS18 landed
Absorbing
13HEAD1BODY0LEGS14 absorbed
Melendez
Attacking
13HEAD1BODY0LEGS14 landed
Absorbing
5HEAD1BODY12LEGS18 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Barboza targets the legs (67% of attacks) — Melendez absorbs 67% of strikes there
🎯Melendez targets the head (93% of attacks) — Barboza absorbs 93% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Barboza
RND
Melendez
0/0R00/0

Barboza · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.9
0105.5W4.5W4.5W5.5W1.5L5.0W5.2W4.5W1.5L5.0W5.2W5.6L4.5W3.3L4.5W4.5W6.2W5.5L5.5L6.4W3.1L5.5L6.2L4.6W5.5W3.7L6.5L6.2W5.3W7.0L6.5L2.7L2010-112014-042017-032021-052025-12
WinLossTrend

Melendez · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.2
0105.5L4.5W2.1L5.5L6.0L6.0L6.9L2013-042014-122016-072019-07
WinLossTrend

Barboza · Last 5

L · KO · R1
Jalin TurnerRating 2.7
KO/TKO
UFC 323: Dvalishvili vs. Yan 2 · 2025-12
L · Dec · R3
Drakkar KloseRating 6.5
Decision
UFC 319: Du Plessis vs. Chimaev · 2025-08
L · Dec · R5
Lerone MurphyRating 7
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Barboza vs. Murphy · 2024-05
W · Dec · R5
Sodiq YusuffRating 5.3
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Yusuff vs. Barboza · 2023-10
W · KO · R1
Billy QuarantilloRating 6.2
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Holloway vs. Allen · 2023-04

Melendez · Last 5

L · Dec · R3
Arnold AllenRating 6.9
Decision
UFC 239: Jones vs. Santos · 2019-07
L · Dec · R3
Jeremy StephensRating 6
Decision
UFC 215: Nunes vs Shevchenko 2 · 2017-09
L · Dec · R3
Edson BarbozaRating 6
Decision
UFC on FOX: Holm vs. Shevchenko · 2016-07
L · Dec · R3
Eddie AlvarezRating 5.5
Decision
UFC 188: Velasquez vs Werdum · 2015-06
L · Sub · R2
Anthony PettisRating 2.1
Submission
UFC 181: Hendricks vs Lawler II · 2014-12

News & Media

Edson Barboza · Gilbert Melendez
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