UFC 271: Adesanya vs. Whittaker 2
Houston, USA
12 Feb 2022
Women's Flyweight
VS
24%
Modafferi
76%
O'Neill
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
RM
Roxanne Modafferi
"The Happy Warrior"
25 – 21
5'7"69" reachOrthodox43 yrs3-fight slideWell-Rounded
CFR 19
Casey
Casey O'Neill
"King"
11 – 2
Striker2-fight win streak28 yrsOrthodox69" reach5'6"
CFR 59

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: O'Neill

O'Neill is a strong favourite at 76% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.

Key angles

The CFR gap of 40 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.

O'Neill has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.

Modafferi
O'Neill
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'7"+
Height
5'6"
69"
Reach
69"
43
Age
+28
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Modafferi
O'Neill
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
18.8
58.5
34.7
Performance Avg
56.5
36
Quality of Victory
44
15
Momentum Score
58
Modafferi
O'Neill
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.1
3.0
31%
Strike Accuracy
52%
3.2
Striking Style Score (/10)
6.5
1 KOs
KO Finishes
3 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
30
Head
59
11
Body
8
0
Leg
4
RangeRange
34Distance69
7Clinch2
0Ground0
Modafferi
O'Neill
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.3
Sub Attempts / fight
—
1.8
Grappling Style Score (/10)
2.1
1.3
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
1.5
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Modafferi
O'Neill
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
84
86
Never stopped
Verdict
Never stopped
0
KO/TKO Losses
0
0
Sub Losses
1
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
12/46 fights
Chin rating based on
8/13 fights
Modafferi
O'Neill
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
15
58
3-fight 📉 slide
Current form
2-fight 🔥 win streak
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
Last 5
W · KO · R1
W · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R2
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
Modafferi
O'Neill
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
25%
67%
1
KO / TKO Wins
3
0
Submission Wins
1
3
Decision Wins
2

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Modafferi
O'Neill
Striking3.2 / 6.5Volume6.7 / 4.2Grappling1.8 / 2.1Wrestling1.3 / 1.5Submission0.0 / 1.7Pressure2.8 / 6.9
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
3.2
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
6.5
1.8
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
2.1
1.3
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.5
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
1.7
2.8
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
6.9
6.7
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
4.2
Modafferi
Strike Zones
O'Neill
Modafferi
Attacking
30HEAD11BODY0LEGS41 landed
Absorbing
59HEAD8BODY4LEGS71 absorbed
O'Neill
Attacking
59HEAD8BODY4LEGS71 landed
Absorbing
30HEAD11BODY0LEGS41 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Modafferi targets the head (73% of attacks) — O'Neill absorbs 73% of strikes there
🎯O'Neill targets the head (83% of attacks) — Modafferi absorbs 83% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Modafferi
RND
O'Neill
0/0R00/0

Modafferi · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.6
0106.1L5.5L5.2W5.5L4.5W5.5L5.5W6.3L4.9W6.2L5.7L6.7L2013-112018-112020-012021-012022-02
WinLossTrend

O'Neill · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.0
0105.2W5.5W5.2W4.5W5.5L2.8L6.2W5.4W2021-022021-102023-032024-082026-03
WinLossTrend

Modafferi · Last 5

L · Dec · R3
Casey O'NeillRating 6.7
Decision
UFC 271: Adesanya vs. Whittaker 2 · 2022-02
L · Dec · R3
Taila SantosRating 5.7
Decision
UFC 266: Volkanovski vs. Ortega · 2021-09
L · Dec · R3
Viviane AraujoRating 6.2
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Chiesa vs. Magny · 2021-01
W · Dec · R3
Andrea LeeRating 4.9
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Waterson vs. Hill · 2020-09
L · Dec · R3
Lauren MurphyRating 6.3
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. Volkov · 2020-06

O'Neill · Last 5

W · KO · R1
Gabriella FernandesRating 5.4
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Adesanya vs. Pyfer · 2026-03
W · Dec · R3
Luana SantosRating 6.2
Decision
UFC 305: Du Plessis vs. Adesanya · 2024-08
L · Sub · R2
Ariane da SilvaRating 2.8
Submission
UFC 296: Edwards vs. Covington · 2023-12
L · Dec · R3
Jennifer MaiaRating 5.5
Decision
UFC 286: Edwards vs. Usman 3 · 2023-03
W · Dec · R3
Roxanne ModafferiRating 4.5
Decision
UFC 271: Adesanya vs. Whittaker 2 · 2022-02

News & Media

Roxanne Modafferi · Casey O'Neill
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