★ Championship Bout · Light Heavyweight
UFC 295: Prochazka vs. Pereira
New York City, USA
11 Nov 2023
Light Heavyweight
VS
47%
Prochazka
53%
Pereira
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 2 · 4:08
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Pereira
This is a genuine toss-up — Prochazka at 47% vs Pereira at 53% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 8 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Pereira has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 15 points.
Striking split: Prochazka throws more volume but Pereira connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.
Risk flags
Prochazka's chin rating of 34 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Prochazka
Pereira
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'3"
Height
+6'4"
80"+
Reach
79"
33+
Age
38
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Prochazka
Pereira
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
68.4
76.5
60.9
Performance Avg
76.4
57
Quality of Victory
72
98
Momentum Score
78
Prochazka
Pereira
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
2.5
2.3
64%
Strike Accuracy
68%
9.7
Striking Style Score (/10)
9.7
5 KOs
KO Finishes
8 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
12
Head
17
5
Body
4
2
Leg
6
RangeRange
18Distance14
1Clinch1
0Ground12
Prochazka
Pereira
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.2
Sub Attempts / fight
—
1.3
Grappling Style Score (/10)
0.5
0.9
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
0.3
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Prochazka
Pereira
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
34
76
KO risk
Verdict
Moderate
3
KO/TKO Losses
1
0
Sub Losses
0
Avg R1.7 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R2.0 stoppage
Most recent fight
Last KO loss
8 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
9/38 fights
Chin rating based on
13/16 fights
Prochazka
Pereira
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
98
78
L · KO · R1
W · KO · R3
W · KO · R3
L · KO · R2
W · KO · R2
Last 5
Upcoming
W · KO · R1
L · Dec · R5
W · KO · R4
W · KO · R2
Prochazka
Pereira
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
100%
80%
5
KO / TKO Wins
8
1
Submission Wins
0
0
Decision Wins
2
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Prochazka
Pereira
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
9.7
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
9.7
1.3
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
0.5
0.9
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.3
1.7
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
9.0
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
8.1
1.3
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
3.3
ProchazkaPereira
Strike Zones
Prochazka
Attacking
19 landedAbsorbing
27 absorbedPereira
Attacking
27 landedAbsorbing
19 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Prochazka targets the head (63% of attacks) — Pereira absorbs 63% of strikes there
🎯Pereira targets the head (63% of attacks) — Prochazka absorbs 63% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Prochazka
RND
Pereira
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0
Prochazka · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.4WinLossTrend
Pereira · QOF Timeline
Avg: 6.0WinLossTrend
Prochazka · Last 5
L · KO · R1
Carlos UlbergRating 3.4KO/TKO
UFC 327: Prochazka vs. Ulberg · 2026-04
W · KO · R3
Khalil Rountree Jr.Rating 6.4KO/TKO
UFC 320: Ankalaev vs. Pereira 2 · 2025-10
W · KO · R3
Jamahal HillRating 6.8KO/TKO
UFC 311: Makhachev vs. Moicano · 2025-01
L · KO · R2
Alex PereiraRating 4.2KO/TKO
UFC 303: Pereira vs. Prochazka 2 · 2024-06
W · KO · R2
Aleksandar RakicRating 5.4KO/TKO
UFC 300: Pereira vs. Hill · 2024-04
Pereira · Last 5
Upcoming
Ciryl GaneUFC Freedom 250 · 2026-06
W · KO · R1
Magomed AnkalaevRating 6.5KO/TKO
UFC 320: Ankalaev vs. Pereira 2 · 2025-10
L · Dec · R5
Magomed AnkalaevRating 7Decision
UFC 313: Pereira vs. Ankalaev · 2025-03
W · KO · R4
Khalil Rountree Jr.Rating 6.3KO/TKO
UFC 307: Pereira vs. Rountree Jr. · 2024-10
W · KO · R2
Jiri ProchazkaRating 6.8KO/TKO
UFC 303: Pereira vs. Prochazka 2 · 2024-06