UFC Fight Night: MacDonald vs Thompson
Ottawa, Canada
18 Jun 2016
Middleweight
VS
47%
Theodorou
53%
Alvey
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
ET
Elias Theodorou
"The Spartan"
16 – 3
6'1"75" reachOrthodox37 yrsWell-Rounded
CFR 20
SA
Sam Alvey
"Smile'N"
33 – 18
Well-Rounded8-fight slide40 yrsSouthpaw75" reach6'2"
CFR 23

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Alvey

This is a genuine toss-up — Theodorou at 47% vs Alvey at 53% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.

Key angles

Alvey has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.

Risk flags

Alvey has a chin rating of 0 — a potential KO vulnerability.

Theodorou
Alvey
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'1"
Height
+6'2"
75"
Reach
75"
37+
Age
40
Orthodox
Stance
Southpaw
Theodorou
Alvey
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
20.2
22.9
52.0
Performance Avg
44.3
38
Quality of Victory
45
80
Momentum Score
43
Theodorou
Alvey
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.4
1.5
44%
Strike Accuracy
46%
4.0
Striking Style Score (/10)
5.9
2 KOs
KO Finishes
5 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
2
Head
2
6
Body
3
2
Leg
7
RangeRange
8Distance7
2Clinch5
0Ground0
Theodorou
Alvey
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.2
Sub Attempts / fight
—
1.8
Grappling Style Score (/10)
1.8
1.3
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
1.2
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Theodorou
Alvey
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
94
0
Never stopped
Verdict
2 consec. KOs
0
KO/TKO Losses
4
0
Sub Losses
2
—
KO round context
Avg R1.3 stoppage
—
Last KO loss
Most recent fight
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
11/19 fights
Chin rating based on
24/51 fights
Theodorou
Alvey
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
80
43
Current form
8-fight 📉 slide
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · KO · R1
L · Sub · R2
L · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R2
Upcoming
Theodorou
Alvey
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
25%
60%
2
KO / TKO Wins
5
0
Submission Wins
1
6
Decision Wins
4

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Theodorou
Alvey
Striking4.0 / 5.9Volume7.5 / 4.1Grappling1.8 / 1.8Wrestling1.3 / 1.2Submission0.0 / 1.0Pressure3.9 / 5.5
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
4.0
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
5.9
1.8
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
1.8
1.3
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.2
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
1.0
3.9
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
5.5
7.5
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
4.1
Theodorou
Strike Zones
Alvey
Theodorou
Attacking
2HEAD6BODY2LEGS10 landed
Absorbing
2HEAD3BODY7LEGS12 absorbed
Alvey
Attacking
2HEAD3BODY7LEGS12 landed
Absorbing
2HEAD6BODY2LEGS10 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Theodorou targets the body (60% of attacks) — Alvey absorbs 60% of strikes there
🎯Alvey targets the legs (58% of attacks) — Theodorou absorbs 58% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Theodorou
RND
Alvey
0/0R00/0

Theodorou · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.0
0105.2W4.5W5.2W5.5L4.5W4.5W5.5L4.5W4.5W5.3W5.8L2014-042015-122017-072018-122019-05
WinLossTrend

Alvey · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.6
0105.5L5.0W5.0W5.0W1.8L5.5L5.0W5.2W4.5W4.5W5.5L4.5W5.5L5.4W4.5W2.8L3.0L5.5L5.9L3.3L5.5L4.1L2.5L2014-082016-072017-102020-052022-08
WinLossTrend

Theodorou · Last 5

L · Dec · R3
Derek BrunsonRating 5.8
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Iaquinta vs. Cowboy · 2019-05
W · Dec · R3
Eryk AndersRating 5.3
Decision
UFC 231: Holloway vs. Ortega · 2018-12
W · Dec · R3
Trevor SmithRating 4.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Thompson vs. Till · 2018-05
W · Dec · R3
Daniel KellyRating 4.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Werdum vs. Tybura · 2017-11
L · Dec · R3
Brad TavaresRating 5.5
Decision
The Ultimate Fighter: Redemption Finale · 2017-07

Alvey · Last 5

L · KO · R1
Michal OleksiejczukRating 2.5
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Santos vs. Hill · 2022-08
L · Sub · R2
Brendan AllenRating 4.1
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Hermansson vs. Strickland · 2022-02
L · Dec · R3
Wellington TurmanRating 5.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Barboza vs. Chikadze · 2021-08
L · Sub · R2
Julian MarquezRating 3.3
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Vettori vs. Holland · 2021-04
Upcoming
Da Woon Jung
Decision
UFC 254: Khabib vs. Gaethje · 2020-10

News & Media

Elias Theodorou · Sam Alvey
← Back to fights