UFC Fight Night: Belfort vs Henderson 3
Sao Paulo, Brazil
7 Nov 2015
Featherweight
VS
71%
Guida
29%
Tavares
Win Probability
Submission
Round 1 · 0:39
Clay
Clay Guida
"The Carpenter"
38 – 22
5'7"70" reachOrthodox44 yrs3-fight slideWell-Rounded
CFR 44
TT
Thiago Tavares
21 – 7
Well-Rounded41 yrsOrthodox70" reach5'7"
CFR 18

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Guida

Guida is a strong favourite at 71% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.

Key angles

The CFR gap of 26 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.

Tavares has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.

Risk flags

Guida's chin rating of 0 flags durability concerns based on KO history.

Tavares has a chin rating of 0 — a potential KO vulnerability.

Guida
Tavares
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'7"
Height
5'7"
70"
Reach
70"
44
Age
+41
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Guida
Tavares
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
44.2
18.0
40.7
Performance Avg
48.8
35
Quality of Victory
42
78
Momentum Score
81
Guida
Tavares
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.0
1.1
36%
Strike Accuracy
44%
2.1
Striking Style Score (/10)
2.2
2 KOs
KO Finishes
1 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
2
Head
2
0
Body
0
1
Leg
0
RangeRange
3Distance2
0Clinch0
0Ground0
Guida
Tavares
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.1
Sub Attempts / fight
0.4
3.7
Grappling Style Score (/10)
5.0
2.6
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
3.5
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Guida
Tavares
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
0
0
KO risk
Verdict
KO risk
2
KO/TKO Losses
5
8
Sub Losses
0
Avg R3.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.8 stoppage
14 fights ago
Last KO loss
Most recent fight
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
37/60 fights
Chin rating based on
18/28 fights
Guida
Tavares
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
78
81
3-fight 📉 slide
Current form
L · Sub · R1
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R1
Last 5
L · KO · R1
W · Sub · R1
L · KO · R3
W · Sub · R1
W · Sub · R1
Guida
Tavares
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
39%
60%
2
KO / TKO Wins
1
5
Submission Wins
5
11
Decision Wins
4

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Guida
Tavares
Striking2.1 / 2.2Volume5.9 / 4.4Grappling3.7 / 5.0Wrestling2.6 / 3.5Submission2.8 / 5.0Pressure4.2 / 6.0
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
2.1
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
2.2
3.7
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
5.0
2.6
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
3.5
2.8
Submission
Submission attack frequency
5.0
4.2
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
6.0
5.9
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
4.4
Guida
Strike Zones
Tavares
Guida
Attacking
2HEAD0BODY1LEGS3 landed
Absorbing
2HEAD0BODY0LEGS2 absorbed
Tavares
Attacking
2HEAD0BODY0LEGS2 landed
Absorbing
2HEAD0BODY1LEGS3 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Guida targets the head (67% of attacks) — Tavares absorbs 67% of strikes there
🎯Tavares targets the head (100% of attacks) — Guida absorbs 100% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Guida
RND
Tavares
0/0R00/0

Guida · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.5
0105.2W5.5L5.5L4.5W4.0L5.0W4.5W4.5W5.5L2.8L5.2W5.7W5.2W4.5W5.5L5.5L4.5W4.0L4.5W2.8L4.5W1.5L5.4L4.5W5.0W2.9L4.5W1.9L6.2L4.6W5.7L5.3W2.4L4.5W6.3L6.1L2.3L2006-102010-032015-042021-082024-12
WinLossTrend

Tavares · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.5
0104.5W5.2W5.5L4.5W2.8L5.5L4.5W5.0W2.8L5.2W4.5W1.5L5.0W5.0W5.4L5.5W3.3L2007-042008-092012-012015-112016-07
WinLossTrend

Guida · Last 5

L · Sub · R1
Chase HooperRating 2.3
Submission
UFC 310: Pantoja vs. Asakura · 2024-12
L · Dec · R3
Joaquim SilvaRating 6.1
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Dariush vs. Tsarukyan · 2023-12
L · Dec · R3
Rafa GarciaRating 6.3
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Holloway vs. Allen · 2023-04
W · Dec · R3
Scott HoltzmanRating 4.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Thompson vs. Holland · 2022-12
L · Sub · R1
Claudio PuellesRating 2.4
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Lemos vs. Andrade · 2022-04

Tavares · Last 5

L · KO · R1
Dooho ChoiRating 3.3
KO/TKO
The Ultimate Fighter: Team Joanna vs. Team Cláudia Finale · 2016-07
W · Sub · R1
Clay GuidaRating 5.5
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Belfort vs Henderson 3 · 2015-11
L · KO · R3
Brian OrtegaRating 5.4
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Boetsch vs Henderson · 2015-06
W · Sub · R1
Robert PeraltaRating 5
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Bader vs Saint Preux · 2014-08
W · Sub · R1
Justin SalasRating 5
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Belfort vs Henderson 2 · 2013-11

News & Media

Clay Guida · Thiago Tavares
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