METRICS GUIDE
Every stat on this page, explained
All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.
UFC Fight Night: Belfort vs Henderson 3
Sao Paulo, Brazil
7 Nov 2015
Featherweight
VS
71%
Guida
29%
Tavares
Win Probability
Submission
Round 1 · 0:39
★ Official Result
Thiago TavareswinsSubmissionR1 · 0:39
def. Clay Guida · UFC Fight Night: Belfort vs Henderson 3
Fight Report
Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result
Prediction vs Result
We predicted
Guida
→
Actual result
Tavares wins
Submission · R1
Pre-fight analysis
Guida is a strong favourite at 71% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 26 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Tavares has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.
Risk flags
Guida's chin rating of 0 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Tavares has a chin rating of 0 — a potential KO vulnerability.
This Fight — Statistics
Actual stats from this bout
GuidaTavares
0
Sig. Strikes
0
0.0
Strikes / min (SLpM)
0.0
—
Strike Accuracy
—
Guida
Tavares
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'7"
Height
5'7"
70"
Reach
70"
44
Age
+41
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Guida
Tavares
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
44.2
18.0
40.7
Performance Avg
48.8
35
Quality of Victory
42
78
Momentum Score
81
Guida
Tavares
Striking
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
1.0
1.1
36%
Strike Accuracy
44%
2.1
Striking Style Score (/10)
2.2
2 KOs
KO Finishes
1 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
2
Head
2
0
Body
0
1
Leg
0
RangeRange
3Distance2
0Clinch0
0Ground0
Guida
Tavares
Grappling
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
—
—
0.1
Sub Attempts / fight
0.4
3.7
Grappling Style Score (/10)
5.0
2.6
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
3.5
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Guida
Tavares
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
0
0
KO risk
Verdict
KO risk
2
KO/TKO Losses
5
8
Sub Losses
0
Avg R3.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.8 stoppage
14 fights ago
Last KO loss
Most recent fight
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
37/60 fights
Chin rating based on
18/28 fights
Guida
Tavares
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
78
81
3-fight 📉 slide
Current form
L · Sub · R1
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R1
Last 5
L · KO · R1
W · Sub · R1
L · KO · R3
W · Sub · R1
W · Sub · R1
Guida
Tavares
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
39%
60%
2
KO / TKO Wins
1
5
Submission Wins
5
11
Decision Wins
4
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Guida
Tavares
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
2.1
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
2.2
3.7
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
5.0
2.6
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
3.5
2.8
Submission
Submission attack frequency
5.0
4.2
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
6.0
5.9
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
4.4
GuidaTavares
Strike Zones
Guida
Attacking
3 landedAbsorbing
2 absorbedTavares
Attacking
2 landedAbsorbing
3 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Guida targets the head (67% of attacks) — Tavares absorbs 67% of strikes there
🎯Tavares targets the head (100% of attacks) — Guida absorbs 100% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Guida
RND
Tavares
0/0R00/0
Guida · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.5WinLossTrend
Tavares · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.5WinLossTrend
Guida · Last 5
L · Sub · R1
Chase HooperRating 2.3Submission
UFC 310: Pantoja vs. Asakura · 2024-12
L · Dec · R3
Joaquim SilvaRating 6.1Decision
UFC Fight Night: Dariush vs. Tsarukyan · 2023-12
L · Dec · R3
Rafa GarciaRating 6.3Decision
UFC Fight Night: Holloway vs. Allen · 2023-04
W · Dec · R3
Scott HoltzmanRating 4.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Thompson vs. Holland · 2022-12
L · Sub · R1
Claudio PuellesRating 2.4Submission
UFC Fight Night: Lemos vs. Andrade · 2022-04
Tavares · Last 5
L · KO · R1
Dooho ChoiRating 3.3KO/TKO
The Ultimate Fighter: Team Joanna vs. Team Cláudia Finale · 2016-07
W · Sub · R1
Clay GuidaRating 5.5Submission
UFC Fight Night: Belfort vs Henderson 3 · 2015-11
L · KO · R3
Brian OrtegaRating 5.4KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Boetsch vs Henderson · 2015-06
W · Sub · R1
Robert PeraltaRating 5Submission
UFC Fight Night: Bader vs Saint Preux · 2014-08
W · Sub · R1
Justin SalasRating 5Submission
UFC Fight Night: Belfort vs Henderson 2 · 2013-11