★ Championship Bout · Lightweight
UFC 269: Oliveira vs. Poirier
Las Vegas, USA
11 Dec 2021
Lightweight
VS
51%
Oliveira
49%
Poirier
Win Probability
Submission
Round 3 · 1:02
Charles
Charles Oliveira
"Do Bronxs"
37 – 11
5'10"74" reachOrthodox36 yrs2-fight win streakPressure Fighter
CFR 63
Dustin
Dustin Poirier
"The Diamond"
30 – 10
Well-Rounded2-fight slide37 yrsSouthpaw72" reach5'9"
CFR 61

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Oliveira

This is a genuine toss-up — Oliveira at 51% vs Poirier at 49% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.

Key angles

Poirier has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.

Risk flags

Oliveira's chin rating of 0 flags durability concerns based on KO history.

Poirier has a chin rating of 0 — a potential KO vulnerability.

Oliveira
Poirier
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'10"+
Height
5'9"
74"+
Reach
72"
36+
Age
37
Orthodox
Stance
Southpaw
Oliveira
Poirier
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
63.3
61.4
58.6
Performance Avg
58.2
51
Quality of Victory
50
100
Momentum Score
100
Oliveira
Poirier
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.1
1.7
53%
Strike Accuracy
54%
3.0
Striking Style Score (/10)
6.0
4 KOs
KO Finishes
10 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
1
Head
1
1
Body
0
0
Leg
0
RangeRange
1Distance1
1Clinch0
0Ground0
Oliveira
Poirier
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.3
Sub Attempts / fight
—
5.8
Grappling Style Score (/10)
2.2
4.1
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
1.6
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Oliveira
Poirier
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
0
0
KO risk
Verdict
KO risk
5
KO/TKO Losses
3
4
Sub Losses
4
Avg R1.2 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.3 stoppage
2 fights ago
Last KO loss
3 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
37/48 fights
Chin rating based on
32/40 fights
Oliveira
Poirier
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
100
100
2-fight 🔥 win streak
Current form
2-fight 📉 slide
W · Dec · R5
W · Sub · R2
L · KO · R1
W · Dec · R5
L · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · Dec · R5
L · Sub · R5
W · KO · R2
L · KO · R2
W · Sub · R3
Oliveira
Poirier
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
84%
64%
4
KO / TKO Wins
10
17
Submission Wins
4
4
Decision Wins
8

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Oliveira
Poirier
Striking3.0 / 6.0Volume2.7 / 4.0Grappling5.8 / 2.2Wrestling4.1 / 1.6Submission6.8 / 1.8Pressure8.0 / 6.6
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
3.0
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
6.0
5.8
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
2.2
4.1
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.6
6.8
Submission
Submission attack frequency
1.8
8.0
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
6.6
2.7
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
4.0
Oliveira
Strike Zones
Poirier
Oliveira
Attacking
1HEAD1BODY0LEGS2 landed
Absorbing
1HEAD0BODY0LEGS1 absorbed
Poirier
Attacking
1HEAD0BODY0LEGS1 landed
Absorbing
1HEAD1BODY0LEGS2 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Oliveira targets the head (50% of attacks) — Poirier absorbs 50% of strikes there
🎯Poirier targets the head (100% of attacks) — Oliveira absorbs 100% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Oliveira
RND
Poirier
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0

Oliveira · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.9
0105.5W5.5W1.9L1.5L5.0W5.2W2.0L5.5L5.5W5.2W5.0W5.5W2.6L5.0W4.0L2.8L5.0W2.8L5.5W5.4W5.4W5.2W5.2W5.4W5.3W5.0W5.9W6.6W6.6W4.1L6.0W7.1L5.3W3.9L6.2W5.6W2010-082014-062018-062021-122026-03
WinLossTrend

Poirier · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.1
0104.5W4.5W5.2W6.1W3.9L5.0W6.0L4.5W5.0W5.2W3.5L6.0W5.0W4.5W5.7W1.6L4.9W5.2W6.9W5.1W5.6W2.8L5.4W7.1W6.0W4.2L6.3W3.7L6.9W6.0L6.6L2011-012013-122017-022021-072025-07
WinLossTrend

Oliveira · Last 5

W · Dec · R5
Max HollowayRating 5.6
Decision
UFC 326: Holloway vs. Oliveira 2 · 2026-03
W · Sub · R2
Mateusz GamrotRating 6.2
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Oliveira vs. Gamrot · 2025-10
L · KO · R1
Ilia TopuriaRating 3.9
KO/TKO
UFC 317: Topuria vs. Oliveira · 2025-06
W · Dec · R5
Michael ChandlerRating 5.3
Decision
UFC 309: Jones vs. Miocic · 2024-11
L · Dec · R3
Arman TsarukyanRating 7.1
Decision
UFC 300: Pereira vs. Hill · 2024-04

Poirier · Last 5

L · Dec · R5
Max HollowayRating 6.6
Decision
UFC 318: Holloway vs. Poirier 3 · 2025-07
L · Sub · R5
Islam MakhachevRating 6
Submission
UFC 302: Makhachev vs. Poirier · 2024-06
W · KO · R2
Benoit Saint DenisRating 6.9
KO/TKO
UFC 299: O'Malley vs. Vera 2 · 2024-03
L · KO · R2
Justin GaethjeRating 3.7
KO/TKO
UFC 291: Poirier vs. Gaethje 2 · 2023-07
W · Sub · R3
Michael ChandlerRating 6.3
Submission
UFC 281: Adesanya vs. Pereira · 2022-11

News & Media

Charles Oliveira · Dustin Poirier
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