The Ultimate Fighter: Team Bisping vs Team Miller Finale
Las Vegas, USA
3 Dec 2011
Featherweight
VS
89%
Caraway
11%
Neace
Win Probability
Submission
Round 2 · 3:38
BC
Bryan Caraway
"Kid Lightning"
21 – 9
5'8"68" reachOrthodox41 yrs2-fight slideWell-Rounded
CFR 20
DN
Dustin Neace
"The Beast"
25 – 21
Well-Rounded39 yrs69" reach5'9"
CFR 3

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Caraway

Caraway is a strong favourite at 89% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.

Key angles

The CFR gap of 18 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.

Caraway has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 40 points.

Caraway has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.

Caraway
Neace
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'8"
Height
+5'9"
68"
Reach
+69"
41
Age
+39
Orthodox
Stance
—
Caraway
Neace
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
20.0
2.5
47.9
Performance Avg
0.0
40
Quality of Victory
0
82
Momentum Score
0
Caraway
Neace
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.1
0.8
37%
Strike Accuracy
24%
1.2
Striking Style Score (/10)
0.0
0 KOs
KO Finishes
0 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
4
Head
2
1
Body
2
8
Leg
2
RangeRange
13Distance4
0Clinch0
0Ground2
Caraway
Neace
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.1
Sub Attempts / fight
—
6.1
Grappling Style Score (/10)
0.0
4.3
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
0.0
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Caraway
Neace
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
72
88
Moderate
Verdict
Never stopped
1
KO/TKO Losses
0
0
Sub Losses
1
Avg R1.0 stoppage
KO round context
—
Most recent fight
Last KO loss
—
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
10/30 fights
Chin rating based on
1/46 fights
Caraway
Neace
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
82
0
2-fight 📉 slide
Current form
L · KO · R1
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · Sub · R2
Caraway
Neace
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
67%
0%
0
KO / TKO Wins
0
4
Submission Wins
0
2
Decision Wins
0

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Caraway
Neace
Striking1.2 / 0.0Volume3.9 / 0.0Grappling6.1 / 0.0Wrestling4.3 / 0.0Submission6.7 / 0.0Pressure6.5 / 0.0
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
1.2
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
0.0
6.1
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
0.0
4.3
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.0
6.7
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
6.5
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
0.0
3.9
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
0.0
Caraway
Strike Zones
Neace
Caraway
Attacking
4HEAD1BODY8LEGS13 landed
Absorbing
2HEAD2BODY2LEGS6 absorbed
Neace
Attacking
2HEAD2BODY2LEGS6 landed
Absorbing
4HEAD1BODY8LEGS13 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Caraway targets the legs (62% of attacks) — Neace absorbs 62% of strikes there
🎯Neace targets the head (33% of attacks) — Caraway absorbs 33% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Caraway
RND
Neace
0/0R00/0

Caraway · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.0
0105.2W5.5W5.5L5.5W5.2W5.5L4.5W5.5W5.5L2.0L2011-122013-042015-072018-11
WinLossTrend

Caraway · Last 5

L · KO · R1
Pedro MunhozRating 2
KO/TKO
The Ultimate Fighter: Heavy Hitters Finale · 2018-11
L · Dec · R3
Cody StamannRating 5.5
Decision
UFC 222: Cyborg vs. Kunitskaya · 2018-03
W · Dec · R3
Aljamain SterlingRating 5.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Almeida vs Garbrandt · 2016-05
W · Dec · R3
Eddie WinelandRating 4.5
Decision
UFC on FOX: Dillashaw vs. Barao II · 2015-07
L · Dec · R3
Raphael AssuncaoRating 5.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: MacDonald vs Saffiedine · 2014-10

Neace · Last 1

L · Sub · R2
Bryan CarawayRating 2.8
Submission
The Ultimate Fighter: Team Bisping vs Team Miller Finale · 2011-12

News & Media

Bryan Caraway · Dustin Neace
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