METRICS GUIDE
Every stat on this page, explained
All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.
UFC 188: Velasquez vs Werdum
Mexico City, Mexico
13 Jun 2015
Lightweight
VS
36%
Trevino
64%
Case
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
★ Official Result
Johnny CasewinsDecisionR3 · 5:00
def. Francisco Trevino · UFC 188: Velasquez vs Werdum
Fight Report
Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result
Prediction vs Result
We predicted
Case
→
Actual result
Case wins
Decision · R3
Pre-fight analysis
Case holds a meaningful edge at 64% per the CFR ratings — but Trevino has real paths to victory.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 8 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Case has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 12 points.
This Fight — Statistics
Actual stats from this bout
TrevinoCase
0
Sig. Strikes
0
0.0
Strikes / min (SLpM)
0.0
—
Strike Accuracy
—
Trevino
Case
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'9"
Height
+5'10"
70"
Reach
+72"
44
Age
+37
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Trevino
Case
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
10.3
18.5
28.3
Performance Avg
49.1
25
Quality of Victory
37
27
Momentum Score
58
Trevino
Case
Striking
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
0.7
/ 10
3.8
/ 10
1.0
Style: Pressure
5.5
8.7
Style: Volume
5.3
0 KO wins
Finish Rate (strikes)
1 KO wins
Per-minute strike stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Strike targetStrike target
5
Head
9
0
Body
1
6
Leg
0
RangeRange
7Distance7
3Clinch1
1Ground2
Trevino
Case
Grappling
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
2.4
/ 10
3.2
/ 10
1.7
Wrestling Style (/10)
2.2
0.0
Submission Style (/10)
2.5
0
Submission wins
1
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Trevino
Case
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
76
86
Moderate
Verdict
Never stopped
1
KO/TKO Losses
0
0
Sub Losses
1
Avg R1.0 stoppage
KO round context
—
Most recent fight
Last KO loss
—
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
3/16 fights
Chin rating based on
6/28 fights
Trevino
Case
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
27
58
2-fight 📉 slide
Current form
2-fight 📉 slide
L · KO · R1
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R3
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
W · KO · R3
Trevino
Case
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
0%
50%
0
KO / TKO Wins
1
0
Submission Wins
1
1
Decision Wins
2
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Trevino
Case
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
0.7
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
3.8
2.4
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
3.2
1.7
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
2.2
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
2.5
1.0
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
5.5
8.7
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
5.3
TrevinoCase
Strike Zones
Trevino
Attacking
11 landedAbsorbing
10 absorbedCase
Attacking
10 landedAbsorbing
11 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Trevino targets the legs (55% of attacks) — Case absorbs 55% of strikes there
🎯Case targets the head (90% of attacks) — Trevino absorbs 90% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Trevino
RND
Case
0/0R00/0
Trevino · Last 3
L · KO · R1
Sage NorthcuttKO/TKO
UFC 192: Cormier vs Gustafsson · 2015-10
L · Dec · R3
Johnny CaseDecision
UFC 188: Velasquez vs Werdum · 2015-06
W · Dec · R3
Renee ForteDecision
UFC 171: Hendricks vs Lawler · 2014-03
Case · Last 5
L · Dec · R3
Anthony Rocco MartinDecision
UFC Fight Night: Chiesa vs. Lee · 2017-06
L · Sub · R3
Jake MatthewsSubmission
UFC Fight Night: Hunt vs Mir · 2016-03
W · Dec · R3
Yan CabralDecision
UFC Fight Night: Belfort vs Henderson 3 · 2015-11
W · Dec · R3
Francisco TrevinoDecision
UFC 188: Velasquez vs Werdum · 2015-06
W · KO · R3
Frankie PerezKO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: McGregor vs Siver · 2015-01