UFC 188: Velasquez vs Werdum
Mexico City, Mexico
13 Jun 2015
Lightweight
VS
36%
Trevino
64%
Case
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
FT
Francisco Trevino
"Sitkayan"
13 – 3
5'9"70" reachOrthodox44 yrs2-fight slideWell-Rounded
CFR 10
JC
Johnny Case
"Hollywood"
22 – 6
Well-Rounded2-fight slide36 yrsOrthodox72" reach5'10"
CFR 19

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Case

Case holds a meaningful edge at 64% per the CFR ratings — but Trevino has real paths to victory.

Key angles

The CFR gap of 8 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.

Case has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 12 points.

Trevino has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.

Trevino
Case
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'9"
Height
+5'10"
70"
Reach
+72"
44
Age
+36
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Trevino
Case
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
10.3
18.5
28.3
Performance Avg
49.1
25
Quality of Victory
37
27
Momentum Score
58
Trevino
Case
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.1
1.1
46%
Strike Accuracy
35%
0.7
Striking Style Score (/10)
3.8
0 KOs
KO Finishes
1 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
5
Head
9
0
Body
1
6
Leg
0
RangeRange
7Distance7
3Clinch1
1Ground2
Trevino
Case
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
—
Sub Attempts / fight
0.2
2.4
Grappling Style Score (/10)
3.2
1.7
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
2.2
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Trevino
Case
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
76
86
Moderate
Verdict
Never stopped
1
KO/TKO Losses
0
0
Sub Losses
1
Avg R1.0 stoppage
KO round context
—
Most recent fight
Last KO loss
—
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
3/16 fights
Chin rating based on
6/28 fights
Trevino
Case
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
27
58
2-fight 📉 slide
Current form
2-fight 📉 slide
L · KO · R1
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R3
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
W · KO · R3
Trevino
Case
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
0%
50%
0
KO / TKO Wins
1
0
Submission Wins
1
1
Decision Wins
2

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Trevino
Case
Striking0.7 / 3.8Volume8.7 / 5.3Grappling2.4 / 3.2Wrestling1.7 / 2.2Submission0.0 / 2.5Pressure1.0 / 5.5
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
0.7
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
3.8
2.4
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
3.2
1.7
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
2.2
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
2.5
1.0
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
5.5
8.7
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
5.3
Trevino
Strike Zones
Case
Trevino
Attacking
5HEAD0BODY6LEGS11 landed
Absorbing
9HEAD1BODY0LEGS10 absorbed
Case
Attacking
9HEAD1BODY0LEGS10 landed
Absorbing
5HEAD0BODY6LEGS11 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Trevino targets the legs (55% of attacks) — Case absorbs 55% of strikes there
🎯Case targets the head (90% of attacks) — Trevino absorbs 90% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Trevino
RND
Case
0/0R00/0

Trevino · QOF Timeline

Avg: 3.8
0104.5W5.5L1.5L2014-032015-062015-10
WinLossTrend

Case · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.0
0105.2W5.5W4.5W4.5W5.0L5.5L2014-092015-012015-062015-112016-032017-06
WinLossTrend

Trevino · Last 3

L · KO · R1
Sage NorthcuttRating 1.5
KO/TKO
UFC 192: Cormier vs Gustafsson · 2015-10
L · Dec · R3
Johnny CaseRating 5.5
Decision
UFC 188: Velasquez vs Werdum · 2015-06
W · Dec · R3
Renee ForteRating 4.5
Decision
UFC 171: Hendricks vs Lawler · 2014-03

Case · Last 5

L · Dec · R3
Anthony Rocco MartinRating 5.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Chiesa vs. Lee · 2017-06
L · Sub · R3
Jake MatthewsRating 5
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Hunt vs Mir · 2016-03
W · Dec · R3
Yan CabralRating 4.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Belfort vs Henderson 3 · 2015-11
W · Dec · R3
Francisco TrevinoRating 4.5
Decision
UFC 188: Velasquez vs Werdum · 2015-06
W · KO · R3
Frankie PerezRating 5.5
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: McGregor vs Siver · 2015-01

News & Media

Francisco Trevino · Johnny Case
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