UFC Fight Night: Gonzaga vs Cro Cop 2
Krakow, Poland
11 Apr 2015
Light Heavyweight
VS
25%
Manuwa
75%
Blachowicz
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Blachowicz
Blachowicz is a strong favourite at 75% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 31 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Manuwa has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.
Risk flags
Manuwa's chin rating of 0 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Blachowicz has a chin rating of 54 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Manuwa
Blachowicz
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'1"
Height
+6'2"
79"+
Reach
78"
46
Age
+43
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Manuwa
Blachowicz
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
15.1
46.4
45.2
Performance Avg
53.0
42
Quality of Victory
48
53
Momentum Score
20
Manuwa
Blachowicz
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.4
1.3
53%
Strike Accuracy
51%
6.0
Striking Style Score (/10)
5.4
3 KOs
KO Finishes
5 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
13
Head
11
4
Body
4
4
Leg
1
RangeRange
16Distance13
5Clinch3
0Ground0
Manuwa
Blachowicz
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
0.4
/ 10
2.3
/ 10
0.3
Wrestling Style (/10)
1.6
0.0
Submission Style (/10)
1.7
0
Submission wins
2
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Manuwa
Blachowicz
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
0
54
2 consec. KOs
Verdict
KO risk
5
KO/TKO Losses
1
0
Sub Losses
1
Avg R1.6 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R3.0 stoppage
Most recent fight
Last KO loss
11 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
12/23 fights
Chin rating based on
22/40 fights
Manuwa
Blachowicz
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
53
20
4-fight 📉 slide
Current form
2-fight 📉 slide
L · KO · R1
L · KO · R2
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R1
W · KO · R1
Last 5
Upcoming
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
Upcoming
W · KO · R3
Manuwa
Blachowicz
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
50%
58%
3
KO / TKO Wins
5
0
Submission Wins
2
3
Decision Wins
5
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Manuwa
Blachowicz
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
6.0
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
5.4
0.4
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
2.3
0.3
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.6
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
1.7
5.0
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
5.9
2.3
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
4.5
ManuwaBlachowicz
Strike Zones
Manuwa
Attacking
21 landedAbsorbing
16 absorbedBlachowicz
Attacking
16 landedAbsorbing
21 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Manuwa targets the head (62% of attacks) — Blachowicz absorbs 62% of strikes there
🎯Blachowicz targets the head (69% of attacks) — Manuwa absorbs 69% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Manuwa
RND
Blachowicz
0/0R00/0
Manuwa · QOF Timeline
Avg: 3.9WinLossTrend
Blachowicz · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.3WinLossTrend
Manuwa · Last 5
L · KO · R1
Aleksandar RakicRating 1.6KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Gustafsson vs. Smith · 2019-06
L · KO · R2
Thiago SantosRating 2.8KO/TKO
UFC 231: Holloway vs. Ortega · 2018-12
L · Dec · R3
Jan BlachowiczRating 6.1Decision
UFC Fight Night: Werdum vs. Volkov · 2018-03
L · KO · R1
Volkan OezdemirRating 2.3KO/TKO
UFC 214: Cormier vs. Jones 2 · 2017-07
W · KO · R1
Corey AndersonRating 5KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Manuwa vs. Anderson · 2017-03
Blachowicz · Last 5
Upcoming
Bogdan GuskovDecision
UFC 323: Dvalishvili vs. Yan 2 · 2025-12
L · Dec · R3
Carlos UlbergRating 7.4Decision
UFC Fight Night: Edwards vs. Brady · 2025-03
L · Dec · R3
Alex PereiraRating 7.6Decision
UFC 291: Poirier vs. Gaethje 2 · 2023-07
Upcoming
Magomed AnkalaevDecision
UFC 282: Blachowicz vs. Ankalaev · 2022-12
W · KO · R3
Aleksandar RakicRating 5.4KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Blachowicz vs. Rakic · 2022-05