UFC Fight Night: Almeida vs Garbrandt
Las Vegas, USA
29 May 2016
Featherweight
VS
26%
Barao
74%
Stephens
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Stephens
Stephens is a strong favourite at 74% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 29 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Barao has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 24 points.
Striking split: Barao throws more volume but Stephens connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.
Risk flags
Barao's chin rating of 24 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Stephens has a chin rating of 0 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Barao
Stephens
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'6"
Height
+5'9"
70"
Reach
+71"
39+
Age
40
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Barao
Stephens
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
15.7
45.0
59.4
Performance Avg
41.1
64
Quality of Victory
40
0
Momentum Score
76
Barao
Stephens
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.4
1.3
38%
Strike Accuracy
42%
3.3
Striking Style Score (/10)
5.5
2 KOs
KO Finishes
7 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
12
Head
16
3
Body
2
2
Leg
2
RangeRange
17Distance18
0Clinch2
0Ground0
Barao
Stephens
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
—
Sub Attempts / fight
0.1
3.7
Grappling Style Score (/10)
1.1
2.6
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
0.8
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Barao
Stephens
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
24
0
KO risk
Verdict
KO risk
3
KO/TKO Losses
3
0
Sub Losses
4
Avg R3.7 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.3 stoppage
1 fight ago
Last KO loss
3 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
17/43 fights
Chin rating based on
36/52 fights
Barao
Stephens
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
0
76
5-fight 📉 slide
Current form
7-fight 📉 slide
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R2
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · Sub · R1
L · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R1
L · KO · R2
L · Dec · R3
Barao
Stephens
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
56%
47%
2
KO / TKO Wins
7
3
Submission Wins
0
4
Decision Wins
8
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Barao
Stephens
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
3.3
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
5.5
3.7
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
1.1
2.6
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.8
3.3
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
5.5
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
4.5
4.6
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
4.6
BaraoStephens
Strike Zones
Barao
Attacking
17 landedAbsorbing
20 absorbedStephens
Attacking
20 landedAbsorbing
17 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Barao targets the head (71% of attacks) — Stephens absorbs 71% of strikes there
🎯Stephens targets the head (80% of attacks) — Barao absorbs 80% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Barao
RND
Stephens
0/0R00/0
Barao · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.9WinLossTrend
Stephens · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.9WinLossTrend
Barao · Last 5
L · Dec · R3
Douglas Silva de AndradeRating 5.7Decision
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L · KO · R2
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L · Dec · R3
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L · Dec · R3
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L · Dec · R3
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UFC 214: Cormier vs. Jones 2 · 2017-07
Stephens · Last 5
L · Sub · R1
King GreenRating 2.2Submission
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Calvin KattarRating 3.2KO/TKO
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