UFC 182: Jones vs Cormier
Las Vegas, USA
3 Jan 2015
Middleweight
VS
68%
Tavares
32%
Marquardt
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Tavares
Tavares holds a meaningful edge at 68% per the CFR ratings — but Marquardt has real paths to victory.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 19 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Marquardt has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 17 points.
Striking split: Tavares throws more volume but Marquardt connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.
Risk flags
Tavares's chin rating of 0 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Marquardt has a chin rating of 0 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Tavares
Marquardt
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'1"+
Height
6'0"
74"
Reach
74"
38+
Age
47
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Tavares
Marquardt
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
35.6
16.8
40.1
Performance Avg
48.6
29
Quality of Victory
46
49
Momentum Score
59
Tavares
Marquardt
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.1
1.1
45%
Strike Accuracy
52%
2.4
Striking Style Score (/10)
5.7
2 KOs
KO Finishes
6 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
16
Head
7
3
Body
5
5
Leg
2
RangeRange
20Distance11
4Clinch3
0Ground0
Tavares
Marquardt
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.0
Sub Attempts / fight
0.1
2.1
Grappling Style Score (/10)
2.6
1.5
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
1.8
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Tavares
Marquardt
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
0
0
KO risk
Verdict
2 consec. KOs
6
KO/TKO Losses
5
0
Sub Losses
0
Avg R1.8 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.2 stoppage
2 fights ago
Last KO loss
4 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
29/34 fights
Chin rating based on
25/54 fights
Tavares
Marquardt
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
49
59
2-fight 📉 slide
Current form
3-fight 📉 slide
Upcoming
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · KO · R2
L · KO · R1
Tavares
Marquardt
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
13%
69%
2
KO / TKO Wins
6
0
Submission Wins
3
14
Decision Wins
4
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Tavares
Marquardt
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
2.4
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
5.7
2.1
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
2.6
1.5
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.8
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
2.3
2.6
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
6.4
8.1
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
3.5
TavaresMarquardt
Strike Zones
Tavares
Attacking
24 landedAbsorbing
14 absorbedMarquardt
Attacking
14 landedAbsorbing
24 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Tavares targets the head (67% of attacks) — Marquardt absorbs 67% of strikes there
🎯Marquardt targets the head (50% of attacks) — Tavares absorbs 50% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Tavares
RND
Marquardt
0/0R00/0
Tavares · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.8WinLossTrend
Marquardt · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.5WinLossTrend
Tavares · Last 5
Upcoming
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