METRICS GUIDE
Every stat on this page, explained
All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.
UFC Fight Night: Rodriguez vs. Stephens
Mexico City, Mexico
21 Sept 2019
Women's Strawweight
VS
41%
Esparza
59%
Grasso
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
★ Official Result
Carla EsparzawinsDecisionR3 · 5:00
def. Alexa Grasso · UFC Fight Night: Rodriguez vs. Stephens
Fight Report
Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result
Prediction vs Result
We predicted
Grasso
→
Actual result
Esparza wins
Decision · R3
Pre-fight analysis
This is a genuine toss-up — Esparza at 41% vs Grasso at 59% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 18 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Grasso has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 10 points.
Risk flags
Esparza's chin rating of 38 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
This Fight — Statistics
Actual stats from this bout
EsparzaGrasso
0
Sig. Strikes
0
0.0
Strikes / min (SLpM)
0.0
—
Strike Accuracy
—
Esparza
Grasso
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'1"
Height
+5'5"
63"
Reach
+66"
38
Age
+33
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Esparza
Grasso
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
40.7
59.1
45.9
Performance Avg
52.8
35
Quality of Victory
45
60
Momentum Score
84
Esparza
Grasso
Striking
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
2.3
/ 10
2.4
/ 10
3.3
Style: Pressure
4.3
7.7
Style: Volume
6.6
1 KO wins
Finish Rate (strikes)
1 KO wins
Per-minute strike stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Strike targetStrike target
9
Head
21
2
Body
1
2
Leg
0
RangeRange
12Distance15
1Clinch0
0Ground7
Esparza
Grasso
Grappling
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
2.7
/ 10
3.4
/ 10
1.9
Wrestling Style (/10)
2.4
1.0
Submission Style (/10)
2.2
1
Submission wins
2
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Esparza
Grasso
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
38
80
KO risk
Verdict
Never stopped
2
KO/TKO Losses
0
1
Sub Losses
1
Avg R2.5 stoppage
KO round context
—
8 fights ago
Last KO loss
—
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
16/28 fights
Chin rating based on
16/22 fights
Esparza
Grasso
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
60
84
2-fight 📉 slide
Current form
L · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R2
W · Dec · R5
W · KO · R2
W · Dec · R3
Last 5
Upcoming
W · KO · R1
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R5
Upcoming
Esparza
Grasso
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
20%
33%
1
KO / TKO Wins
1
1
Submission Wins
2
8
Decision Wins
6
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Esparza
Grasso
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
2.3
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
2.4
2.7
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
3.4
1.9
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
2.4
1.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
2.2
3.3
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
4.3
7.7
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
6.6
EsparzaGrasso
Strike Zones
Esparza
Attacking
13 landedAbsorbing
22 absorbedGrasso
Attacking
22 landedAbsorbing
13 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Esparza targets the head (69% of attacks) — Grasso absorbs 69% of strikes there
🎯Grasso targets the head (95% of attacks) — Esparza absorbs 95% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Esparza
RND
Grasso
0/0R00/0
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Grasso · Last 5
Upcoming
Manon FiorotNoche UFC: Silva vs. Delgado · 2026-09
W · KO · R1
Maycee BarberKO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Adesanya vs. Pyfer · 2026-03
L · Dec · R3
Natalia SilvaDecision
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L · Dec · R5
Valentina ShevchenkoDecision
UFC 306: Riyadh Season Noche UFC · 2024-09
Upcoming
Valentina ShevchenkoDecision
Noche UFC: Grasso vs. Shevchenko 2 · 2023-09