UFC Fight Night: Rodriguez vs. Stephens
Mexico City, Mexico
21 Sept 2019
Women's Strawweight
VS
41%
Esparza
59%
Grasso
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Grasso
This is a genuine toss-up — Esparza at 41% vs Grasso at 59% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 18 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Grasso has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 10 points.
Grasso has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.
Risk flags
Esparza's chin rating of 38 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Esparza
Grasso
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'1"
Height
+5'5"
63"
Reach
+66"
38
Age
+32
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Esparza
Grasso
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
40.7
59.1
45.9
Performance Avg
52.8
35
Quality of Victory
45
60
Momentum Score
84
Esparza
Grasso
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
0.8
1.4
40%
Strike Accuracy
41%
2.3
Striking Style Score (/10)
2.4
1 KOs
KO Finishes
1 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
9
Head
21
2
Body
1
2
Leg
0
RangeRange
12Distance15
1Clinch0
0Ground7
Esparza
Grasso
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.1
Sub Attempts / fight
—
2.7
Grappling Style Score (/10)
3.4
1.9
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
2.4
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Esparza
Grasso
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
38
80
KO risk
Verdict
Never stopped
2
KO/TKO Losses
0
1
Sub Losses
1
Avg R2.5 stoppage
KO round context
—
8 fights ago
Last KO loss
—
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
16/28 fights
Chin rating based on
15/22 fights
Esparza
Grasso
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
60
84
2-fight 📉 slide
Current form
L · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R2
W · Dec · R5
W · KO · R2
W · Dec · R3
Last 5
W · KO · R1
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R5
Upcoming
W · Sub · R4
Esparza
Grasso
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
20%
33%
1
KO / TKO Wins
1
1
Submission Wins
2
8
Decision Wins
6
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Esparza
Grasso
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
2.3
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
2.4
2.7
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
3.4
1.9
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
2.4
1.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
2.2
3.3
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
4.3
7.7
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
6.6
EsparzaGrasso
Strike Zones
Esparza
Attacking
13 landedAbsorbing
22 absorbedGrasso
Attacking
22 landedAbsorbing
13 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Esparza targets the head (69% of attacks) — Grasso absorbs 69% of strikes there
🎯Grasso targets the head (95% of attacks) — Esparza absorbs 95% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Esparza
RND
Grasso
0/0R00/0
Esparza · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.2WinLossTrend
Grasso · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.4WinLossTrend
Esparza · Last 5
L · Dec · R3
Tecia PenningtonRating 6.2Decision
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L · Sub · R2
Zhang WeiliRating 4Submission
UFC 281: Adesanya vs. Pereira · 2022-11
W · Dec · R5
Rose NamajunasRating 5.9Decision
UFC 274: Oliveira vs. Gaethje · 2022-05
W · KO · R2
Yan XiaonanRating 6.2KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Font vs. Garbrandt · 2021-05
W · Dec · R3
Marina RodriguezRating 5.2Decision
UFC Fight Night: Whittaker vs. Till · 2020-07
Grasso · Last 5
W · KO · R1
Maycee BarberRating 6KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Adesanya vs. Pyfer · 2026-03
L · Dec · R3
Natalia SilvaRating 7Decision
UFC 315: Muhammad vs. Della Maddalena · 2025-05
L · Dec · R5
Valentina ShevchenkoRating 6.9Decision
UFC 306: Riyadh Season Noche UFC · 2024-09
Upcoming
Valentina ShevchenkoDecision
UFC Fight Night: Grasso vs. Shevchenko 2 · 2023-09
W · Sub · R4
Valentina ShevchenkoRating 6.7Submission
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