The Ultimate Fighter: American Top Team vs. Blackzilians Finale
Las Vegas, USA
12 Jul 2015
Welterweight
VS
88%
Sullivan
12%
Waters
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Sullivan
Sullivan is a strong favourite at 88% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 14 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Sullivan has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 35 points.
Striking split: Sullivan throws more volume but Waters connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.
Risk flags
Sullivan's chin rating of 42 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Sullivan
Waters
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'0"
Height
+6'1"
73"
Reach
+79"
45
Age
+37
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Sullivan
Waters
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
16.1
2.1
38.1
Performance Avg
0.0
35
Quality of Victory
0
79
Momentum Score
0
Sullivan
Waters
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.3
0.2
46%
Strike Accuracy
55%
4.2
Striking Style Score (/10)
0.0
1 KOs
KO Finishes
0 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
3
Head
3
1
Body
0
0
Leg
0
RangeRange
0Distance0
0Clinch1
4Ground2
Sullivan
Waters
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.2
Sub Attempts / fight
—
1.6
Grappling Style Score (/10)
0.0
1.1
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
0.0
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Sullivan
Waters
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
42
74
KO risk
Verdict
Moderate
1
KO/TKO Losses
1
3
Sub Losses
0
Avg R1.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.0 stoppage
2 fights ago
Last KO loss
1 fight ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
7/24 fights
Chin rating based on
3/14 fights
Sullivan
Waters
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
79
0
3-fight 📉 slide
Current form
3-fight 📉 slide
L · Sub · R1
L · Sub · R2
L · KO · R1
W · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R3
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R1
L · Dec · R3
Sullivan
Waters
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
33%
0%
1
KO / TKO Wins
0
0
Submission Wins
0
2
Decision Wins
0
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Sullivan
Waters
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
4.2
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
0.0
1.6
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
0.0
1.1
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.0
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
3.6
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
0.0
6.2
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
0.0
SullivanWaters
Strike Zones
Sullivan
Attacking
4 landedAbsorbing
3 absorbedWaters
Attacking
3 landedAbsorbing
4 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Sullivan targets the head (75% of attacks) — Waters absorbs 75% of strikes there
🎯Waters targets the head (100% of attacks) — Sullivan absorbs 100% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Sullivan
RND
Waters
0/0R00/0
Sullivan · QOF Timeline
Avg: 3.6WinLossTrend
Waters · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.5WinLossTrend
Sullivan · Last 5
L · Sub · R1
Mickey GallRating 2Submission
UFC Fight Night: Gaethje vs. Vick · 2018-08
L · Sub · R2
Niko PriceRating 3.4Submission
UFC Fight Night: Jacare vs. Brunson 2 · 2018-01
L · KO · R1
Alexander YakovlevRating 1.5KO/TKO
UFC on FOX: Johnson vs. Bader · 2016-01
W · Dec · R3
Dominic WatersRating 4.5Decision
The Ultimate Fighter: American Top Team vs. Blackzilians Finale · 2015-07
L · Sub · R3
Tim MeansRating 4.1Submission
UFC on FOX: Machida vs Rockhold · 2015-04
Waters · Last 3
L · Dec · R3
Leon EdwardsRating 6.6Decision
UFC Fight Night: Overeem vs Arlovski · 2016-05
L · KO · R1
Dong Hyun KimRating 1.5KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Henderson vs Masvidal · 2015-11
L · Dec · R3
George SullivanRating 5.5Decision
The Ultimate Fighter: American Top Team vs. Blackzilians Finale · 2015-07