UFC Fight Night 1
Las Vegas, USA
6 Aug 2005
Middleweight
VS
93%
Swick
7%
Ray
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 1 · 0:22
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Swick
Swick is a strong favourite at 93% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 21 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Swick has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 47 points.
Ray has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.
Risk flags
Swick's chin rating of 60 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Ray has a chin rating of 64 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Swick
Ray
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'1"+
Height
5'10"
77"
Reach
46+
Age
52
Orthodox
Stance
Southpaw
Swick
Ray
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
22.6
1.8
55.0
Performance Avg
0.0
47
Quality of Victory
0
100
Momentum Score
0
Swick
Ray
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
0.9
2.8
36%
Strike Accuracy
40%
6.3
Striking Style Score (/10)
0.0
5 KOs
KO Finishes
0 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
6
Head
0
0
Body
0
1
Leg
1
RangeRange
4Distance1
0Clinch0
3Ground0
Swick
Ray
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.1
Sub Attempts / fight
—
2.3
Grappling Style Score (/10)
0.0
1.6
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
0.0
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Swick
Ray
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
60
64
Moderate
Verdict
Moderate
1
KO/TKO Losses
1
1
Sub Losses
1
Avg R2.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.0 stoppage
1 fight ago
Last KO loss
1 fight ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
15/21 fights
Chin rating based on
3/32 fights
Swick
Ray
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
100
0
2-fight 📉 slide
Current form
3-fight 📉 slide
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R2
W · KO · R2
L · Sub · R2
L · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · Sub · R1
L · KO · R1
L · R1
Swick
Ray
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
70%
0%
5
KO / TKO Wins
0
2
Submission Wins
0
3
Decision Wins
0
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Swick
Ray
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
6.3
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
0.0
2.3
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
0.0
1.6
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.0
2.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
6.9
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
0.0
3.7
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
0.0
SwickRay
Strike Zones
Swick
Attacking
7 landedAbsorbing
1 absorbedRay
Attacking
1 landedAbsorbing
7 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Swick targets the head (86% of attacks) — Ray absorbs 86% of strikes there
🎯Ray targets the legs (100% of attacks) — Swick absorbs 100% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Swick
RND
Ray
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0
Swick · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.8WinLossTrend
Ray · QOF Timeline
Avg: 2.3WinLossTrend
Swick · Last 5
L · Dec · R3
Alex GarciaRating 5.5Decision
UFC 189: Mendes vs McGregor · 2015-07
L · KO · R2
Matt BrownRating 3.1KO/TKO
UFC on FOX: Henderson vs Diaz · 2012-12
W · KO · R2
DaMarques JohnsonRating 5.2KO/TKO
UFC on FOX: Shogun vs Vera · 2012-08
L · Sub · R2
Paulo ThiagoRating 2.8Submission
UFC 109: Relentless · 2010-02
L · Dec · R3
Dan HardyRating 5.5Decision
UFC 105: Couture vs Vera · 2009-11
Ray · Last 3
L · Sub · R1
Charles McCarthyRating 1.5Submission
The Ultimate Fighter: The Comeback Finale · 2006-11
L · KO · R1
Mike SwickRating 1.5KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night 1 · 2005-08
L · R1
David LoiseauRating 4UFC 51: Super Saturday · 2005-02