★ Championship Bout · Featherweight
UFC 194: Aldo vs McGregor
Las Vegas, USA
12 Dec 2015
Featherweight
VS
37%
Aldo
63%
McGregor
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 1 · 0:13
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: McGregor
McGregor holds a meaningful edge at 63% per the CFR ratings — but Aldo has real paths to victory.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 30 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
McGregor has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 18 points.
McGregor has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.
Risk flags
Aldo's chin rating of 2 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
McGregor has a chin rating of 52 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Aldo
McGregor
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'7"
Height
+5'9"
70"
Reach
+74"
39
Age
+37
Orthodox
Stance
Southpaw
Aldo
McGregor
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
44.5
74.4
53.6
Performance Avg
68.9
49
Quality of Victory
67
40
Momentum Score
100
Aldo
McGregor
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
0.9
2.0
48%
Strike Accuracy
56%
4.1
Striking Style Score (/10)
9.4
4 KOs
KO Finishes
8 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
1
Head
4
0
Body
0
0
Leg
1
RangeRange
1Distance3
0Clinch0
0Ground2
Aldo
McGregor
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
1.7
/ 10
0.5
/ 10
1.2
Wrestling Style (/10)
0.3
0.0
Submission Style (/10)
0.0
0
Submission wins
0
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Aldo
McGregor
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
2
52
2 consec. KOs
Verdict
KO risk
4
KO/TKO Losses
1
0
Sub Losses
2
Avg R3.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R2.0 stoppage
7 fights ago
Last KO loss
2 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
23/42 fights
Chin rating based on
15/28 fights
Aldo
McGregor
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
40
100
2-fight 📉 slide
Current form
2-fight 📉 slide
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R5
Last 5
Upcoming
L · R1
L · KO · R2
W · KO · R1
L · Sub · R4
Aldo
McGregor
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
29%
80%
4
KO / TKO Wins
8
0
Submission Wins
0
10
Decision Wins
2
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Aldo
McGregor
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
4.1
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
9.4
1.7
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
0.5
1.2
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.3
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
3.8
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
7.7
6.9
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
3.0
AldoMcGregor
Strike Zones
Aldo
Attacking
1 landedAbsorbing
5 absorbedMcGregor
Attacking
5 landedAbsorbing
1 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Aldo targets the head (100% of attacks) — McGregor absorbs 100% of strikes there
🎯McGregor targets the head (80% of attacks) — Aldo absorbs 80% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Aldo
RND
McGregor
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0
Aldo · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.2WinLossTrend
McGregor · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.7WinLossTrend
Aldo · Last 5
L · Dec · R3
Aiemann ZahabiRating 6.6Decision
UFC 315: Muhammad vs. Della Maddalena · 2025-05
L · Dec · R3
Mario BautistaRating 6.6Decision
UFC 307: Pereira vs. Rountree Jr. · 2024-10
W · Dec · R3
Jonathan MartinezRating 5Decision
UFC 301: Pantoja vs. Erceg · 2024-05
L · Dec · R3
Merab DvalishviliRating 6.8Decision
UFC 278: Usman vs. Edwards · 2022-08
W · Dec · R5
Rob FontRating 5.7Decision
UFC Fight Night: Font vs. Aldo · 2021-12
McGregor · Last 5
Upcoming
Max HollowayUFC 329: McGregor vs. Holloway 2 · 2026-07
L · R1
Dustin PoirierRating 5.3UFC 264: Poirier vs. McGregor 3 · 2021-07
L · KO · R2
Dustin PoirierRating 3.4KO/TKO
UFC 257: Poirier vs. McGregor · 2021-01
W · KO · R1
Donald CerroneRating 5KO/TKO
UFC 246: McGregor vs. Cowboy · 2020-01
L · Sub · R4
Khabib NurmagomedovRating 3.4Submission
UFC 229: Khabib vs. McGregor · 2018-10