UFC Fight Night: Barboza vs. Gaethje
Philadelphia, USA
30 Mar 2019
Lightweight
VS
40%
Barboza
60%
Gaethje
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 1 · 2:30
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Gaethje
Gaethje holds a meaningful edge at 60% per the CFR ratings — but Barboza has real paths to victory.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 21 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Gaethje has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 22 points.
Gaethje has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.
Risk flags
Barboza's chin rating of 0 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Gaethje has a chin rating of 10 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Barboza
Gaethje
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'11"
Height
5'11"
75"+
Reach
70"
40
Age
+37
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Barboza
Gaethje
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
44.9
66.1
46.3
Performance Avg
63.6
40
Quality of Victory
62
60
Momentum Score
100
Barboza
Gaethje
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.3
2.1
46%
Strike Accuracy
62%
6.1
Striking Style Score (/10)
7.3
9 KOs
KO Finishes
6 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
6
Head
13
3
Body
2
4
Leg
5
RangeRange
11Distance12
2Clinch8
0Ground0
Barboza
Gaethje
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.0
Sub Attempts / fight
—
1.2
Grappling Style Score (/10)
1.0
0.8
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
0.7
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Barboza
Gaethje
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
0
10
KO risk
Verdict
2 consec. KOs
4
KO/TKO Losses
3
2
Sub Losses
2
Avg R1.5 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R4.0 stoppage
Most recent fight
Last KO loss
3 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
32/38 fights
Chin rating based on
16/32 fights
Barboza
Gaethje
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
60
100
3-fight 📉 slide
Current form
2-fight 🔥 win streak
L · KO · R1
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R5
W · Dec · R5
W · KO · R1
Last 5
Upcoming
W · Dec · R5
W · Dec · R3
L · KO · R5
W · KO · R2
Barboza
Gaethje
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
50%
60%
9
KO / TKO Wins
6
0
Submission Wins
0
9
Decision Wins
4
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Barboza
Gaethje
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
6.1
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
7.3
1.2
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
1.0
0.8
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.7
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
5.2
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
6.2
5.1
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
4.5
BarbozaGaethje
Strike Zones
Barboza
Attacking
13 landedAbsorbing
20 absorbedGaethje
Attacking
20 landedAbsorbing
13 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Barboza targets the head (46% of attacks) — Gaethje absorbs 46% of strikes there
🎯Gaethje targets the head (65% of attacks) — Barboza absorbs 65% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Barboza
RND
Gaethje
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0
Barboza · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.9WinLossTrend
Gaethje · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.0WinLossTrend
Barboza · Last 5
L · KO · R1
Jalin TurnerRating 2.7KO/TKO
UFC 323: Dvalishvili vs. Yan 2 · 2025-12
L · Dec · R3
Drakkar KloseRating 6.5Decision
UFC 319: Du Plessis vs. Chimaev · 2025-08
L · Dec · R5
Lerone MurphyRating 7Decision
UFC Fight Night: Barboza vs. Murphy · 2024-05
W · Dec · R5
Sodiq YusuffRating 5.3Decision
UFC Fight Night: Yusuff vs. Barboza · 2023-10
W · KO · R1
Billy QuarantilloRating 6.2KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Holloway vs. Allen · 2023-04
Gaethje · Last 5
Upcoming
Ilia TopuriaUFC Freedom 250 · 2026-06
W · Dec · R5
Paddy PimblettRating 6.2Decision
UFC 324: Gaethje vs. Pimblett · 2026-01
W · Dec · R3
Rafael FizievRating 5.5Decision
UFC 313: Pereira vs. Ankalaev · 2025-03
L · KO · R5
Max HollowayRating 5.1KO/TKO
UFC 300: Pereira vs. Hill · 2024-04
W · KO · R2
Dustin PoirierRating 6.4KO/TKO
UFC 291: Poirier vs. Gaethje 2 · 2023-07