Jake Matthews vs Kevin Lee — UFC Fight Analysis & Result

METRICS GUIDE

Every stat on this page, explained

All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.

The Ultimate Fighter: Team Joanna vs. Team Cláudia Finale

Las Vegas, USA

8 Jul 2016

Lightweight

61%

Matthews

39%

Lee

Win Probability

KO/TKO

Round 1 · 4:06

Jake Matthews

"The Celtic Kid"

22 – 8

5'11"73" reachOrthodox32 yrsWell-Rounded

CFR 55

Kevin Lee

"The Motown Phenom"

18 – 8

Well-Rounded3-fight slide34 yrsOrthodox77" reach5'9"

CFR 35

★ Official Result

Kevin LeewinsKO/TKOR1 · 4:06

def. Jake Matthews · The Ultimate Fighter: Team Joanna vs. Team Cláudia Finale

Fight Report

Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result

Prediction vs Result

We predicted

Matthews

→

Actual result

Lee wins

KO/TKO · R1

Pre-fight analysis

Matthews holds a meaningful edge at 61% per the CFR ratings — but Lee has real paths to victory.

Key angles

The CFR gap of 20 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.

Risk flags

Matthews's chin rating of 24 flags durability concerns based on KO history.

Lee has a chin rating of 24 — a potential KO vulnerability.

This Fight — Statistics

Actual stats from this bout

MatthewsLee

Sig. Strikes

0.0

Strikes / min (SLpM)

0.0

—

Strike Accuracy

—

Matthews

Lee

Physical Matchup

Height · Reach · Age · Stance

5'11"+

Height

5'9"

73"

Reach

+77"

32+

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

Matthews

Lee

Composite Fighter Rating

Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability

55.2

35.2

48.4

Performance Avg

48.3

Quality of Victory

100

Momentum Score

Matthews

Lee

Striking

Career averages · see This Fight stats above

2.0

/ 10

3.0

/ 10

5.1

Style: Pressure

5.6

5.3

Style: Volume

4.1

1 KO wins

Finish Rate (strikes)

2 KO wins

Per-minute strike stats will populate after live card results are scraped

Strike targetStrike target

Head

Body

Leg

RangeRange

4Distance2

1Clinch2

0Ground20

Matthews

Lee

Grappling

Career averages · see This Fight stats above

4.2

/ 10

3.8

/ 10

2.9

Wrestling Style (/10)

2.6

3.8

Submission Style (/10)

3.6

Submission wins

Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped

Matthews

Lee

Durability / Chin

Resilience against knockouts and stoppages

KO risk

Verdict

KO risk

KO/TKO Losses

Sub Losses

Avg R1.0 stoppage

KO round context

Avg R1.0 stoppage

18 fights ago

Last KO loss

13 fights ago

—

Strikes absorbed / min

—

24/30 fights

Chin rating based on

19/26 fights

Matthews

Lee

Form & Momentum

Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%

100

Current form

3-fight 📉 slide

W · Dec · R3

L · Sub · R3

W · Sub · R1

W · Dec · R3

Last 5

L · Sub · R1

L · Dec · R3

L · Sub · R3

W · KO · R1

L · Sub · R4

Matthews

Lee

Finish Rate

Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission

44%

55%

KO / TKO Wins

Submission Wins

Decision Wins

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Matthews

Lee

Fighter 1

Fighter 2

2.0

Striking

KO power & stand-up volume

3.0

4.2

Grappling

Ground control & clinch

3.8

2.9

Wrestling

Takedown threat & defence

2.6

3.8

Submission

Submission attack frequency

3.6

5.1

Pressure

Clinch/ground work rate

5.6

5.3

Volume

Decision-pace fighting

4.1

Matthews

Strike Zones

Lee

Matthews

Attacking

5 landed

Absorbing

24 absorbed

Lee

Attacking

24 landed

Absorbing

5 absorbed

Targeting Overlap

🎯Matthews targets the head (80% of attacks) — Lee absorbs 80% of strikes there

🎯Lee targets the head (88% of attacks) — Matthews absorbs 88% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Matthews

RND

Lee

0/0R00/0

Matthews · Last 5

W · Dec · R3

Carlston Harris

Decision

UFC Fight Night: Song vs. Figueiredo · 2026-05

L · Sub · R3

Neil Magny

Submission

UFC Fight Night: Ulberg vs. Reyes · 2025-09

W · Sub · R1

Chidi Njokuani

Submission

UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Teixeira · 2025-07

W · Dec · R3

Francisco Prado

Decision

UFC 312: Du Plessis vs. Strickland 2 · 2025-02

W · Dec · R3

Phil Rowe

Decision

UFC 302: Makhachev vs. Poirier · 2024-06

Lee · Last 5

L · Sub · R1

Rinat Fakhretdinov

Submission

UFC Fight Night: Strickland vs. Magomedov · 2023-07

L · Dec · R3

Daniel Rodriguez

Decision

UFC Fight Night: Barboza vs. Chikadze · 2021-08

L · Sub · R3

Charles Oliveira

Submission

UFC Fight Night: Lee vs. Oliveira · 2020-03

W · KO · R1

Gregor Gillespie

KO/TKO

UFC 244: Masvidal vs. Diaz · 2019-11

L · Sub · R4

Rafael Dos Anjos

Submission

UFC Fight Night: Dos Anjos vs. Lee · 2019-05

News & Media

Jake Matthews · Kevin Lee

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