METRICS GUIDE
Every stat on this page, explained
All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.
UFC Fight Night: Hunt vs Mir
Brisbane, Australia
19 Mar 2016
Middleweight
VS
46%
Kelly
54%
Junior
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 3 · 1:36
AC
Antonio Carlos Junior
"Cara de Sapato"
11 – 5
Submission Hunter3-fight slide36 yrsOrthodox79" reach6'2"
CFR 19
★ Official Result
Daniel KellywinsKO/TKOR3 · 1:36
def. Antonio Carlos Junior · UFC Fight Night: Hunt vs Mir
Fight Report
Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result
Prediction vs Result
We predicted
Junior
→
Actual result
Kelly wins
KO/TKO · R3
Pre-fight analysis
This is a genuine toss-up — Kelly at 46% vs Junior at 54% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.
Key angles
Junior has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 19 points.
Striking split: Kelly throws more volume but Junior connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.
Risk flags
Kelly's chin rating of 32 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
This Fight — Statistics
Actual stats from this bout
KellyJunior
0
Sig. Strikes
0
0.0
Strikes / min (SLpM)
0.0
—
Strike Accuracy
—
Kelly
Junior
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'0"
Height
+6'2"
70"
Reach
+79"
48
Age
+36
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
Kelly
Junior
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
16.0
19.1
44.4
Performance Avg
55.3
34
Quality of Victory
53
65
Momentum Score
41
Kelly
Junior
Striking
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
1.8
0.6
41%
Strike Accuracy
43%
2.9
Striking Style Score (/10)
1.2
1 KOs
KO Finishes
0 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
21
Head
2
2
Body
2
0
Leg
0
RangeRange
2Distance3
0Clinch1
21Ground0
Kelly
Junior
Grappling
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
—
—
—
Sub Attempts / fight
0.1
2.9
Grappling Style Score (/10)
6.4
2.0
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
4.5
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Kelly
Junior
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
32
70
KO risk
Verdict
Moderate
3
KO/TKO Losses
1
0
Sub Losses
0
Avg R1.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R3.0 stoppage
Most recent fight
Last KO loss
8 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
10/17 fights
Chin rating based on
13/16 fights
Kelly
Junior
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
65
41
3-fight 📉 slide
Current form
3-fight 📉 slide
L · KO · R1
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R1
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · Sub · R1
W · Sub · R1
Kelly
Junior
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
33%
71%
1
KO / TKO Wins
0
1
Submission Wins
5
4
Decision Wins
2
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Kelly
Junior
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
2.9
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
1.2
2.9
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
6.4
2.0
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
4.5
1.7
Submission
Submission attack frequency
7.1
4.1
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
6.8
6.5
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
3.5
KellyJunior
Strike Zones
Kelly
Attacking
23 landedAbsorbing
4 absorbedJunior
Attacking
4 landedAbsorbing
23 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Kelly targets the head (91% of attacks) — Junior absorbs 91% of strikes there
🎯Junior targets the head (50% of attacks) — Kelly absorbs 50% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Kelly
RND
Junior
0/0R00/0
Kelly · QOF Timeline
Avg: 3.9WinLossTrend
Junior · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.2WinLossTrend
Kelly · Last 5
L · KO · R1
Tom BreeseRating 1.5KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Thompson vs. Till · 2018-05
L · Dec · R3
Elias TheodorouRating 5.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Werdum vs. Tybura · 2017-11
L · KO · R1
Derek BrunsonRating 1.8KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Hunt · 2017-06
W · Dec · R3
Rashad EvansRating 4.5Decision
UFC 209: Woodley vs. Thompson 2 · 2017-03
W · Dec · R3
Chris CamozziRating 4.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Whittaker vs. Brunson · 2016-11
Junior · Last 5
L · Dec · R3
Brad TavaresRating 5.5Decision
UFC 257: Poirier vs. McGregor · 2021-01
L · Dec · R3
Uriah HallRating 5.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Cowboy vs. Gaethje · 2019-09
L · Dec · R3
Ian HeinischRating 5.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Dos Anjos vs. Lee · 2019-05
W · Sub · R1
Tim BoetschRating 5Submission
UFC Fight Night: Poirier vs. Gaethje · 2018-04
W · Sub · R1
Jack MarshmanRating 5Submission
UFC Fight Night: Brunson vs. Machida · 2017-10