METRICS GUIDE
Every stat on this page, explained
All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.
UFC Fight Night: Dern vs. Ribas 2
Las Vegas, USA
11 Jan 2025
Women's Flyweight
VS
42%
Kareckaite
58%
Caliari
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
★ Official Result
Ernesta KareckaitewinsDecisionR3 · 5:00
def. Nicolle Caliari · UFC Fight Night: Dern vs. Ribas 2
Fight Report
Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result
Prediction vs Result
We predicted
Caliari
→
Actual result
Kareckaite wins
Decision · R3
Pre-fight analysis
This is a genuine toss-up — Kareckaite at 42% vs Caliari at 58% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 13 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Caliari has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 20 points.
Striking split: Kareckaite throws more volume but Caliari connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.
This Fight — Statistics
Actual stats from this bout
KareckaiteCaliari
0
Sig. Strikes
0
0.0
Strikes / min (SLpM)
0.0
—
Strike Accuracy
—
Kareckaite
Caliari
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'9"+
Height
5'3"
71"+
Reach
62"
28+
Age
29
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Kareckaite
Caliari
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
33.8
46.7
28.3
Performance Avg
40.3
25
Quality of Victory
45
40
Momentum Score
35
Kareckaite
Caliari
Striking
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
2.4
0.9
40%
Strike Accuracy
42%
0.7
Striking Style Score (/10)
0.7
0 KOs
KO Finishes
0 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
27
Head
9
5
Body
11
0
Leg
2
RangeRange
31Distance21
1Clinch0
0Ground1
Kareckaite
Caliari
Grappling
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
2.4
/ 10
8.0
/ 10
1.7
Wrestling Style (/10)
5.6
0.0
Submission Style (/10)
10.0
0
Submission wins
1
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Kareckaite
Caliari
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
96
76
Never stopped
Verdict
Moderate
0
KO/TKO Losses
1
0
Sub Losses
0
—
KO round context
Avg R3.0 stoppage
—
Last KO loss
1 fight ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
3/8 fights
Chin rating based on
3/13 fights
Kareckaite
Caliari
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
40
35
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
Last 5
W · Sub · R3
L · KO · R3
L · Dec · R3
Kareckaite
Caliari
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
0%
100%
0
KO / TKO Wins
0
0
Submission Wins
1
1
Decision Wins
0
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Kareckaite
Caliari
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
0.7
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
0.7
2.4
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
8.0
1.7
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
5.6
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
10.0
1.0
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
8.0
8.7
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
0.7
KareckaiteCaliari
Strike Zones
Kareckaite
Attacking
32 landedAbsorbing
22 absorbedCaliari
Attacking
22 landedAbsorbing
32 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Kareckaite targets the head (84% of attacks) — Caliari absorbs 84% of strikes there
🎯Caliari targets the body (50% of attacks) — Kareckaite absorbs 50% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Kareckaite
RND
Caliari
0/0R00/0
Kareckaite · QOF Timeline
Avg: 6.0WinLossTrend
Caliari · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.7WinLossTrend
Kareckaite · Last 3
L · Dec · R3
Regina TarinRating 6.8Decision
UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Kavanagh · 2026-02
W · Dec · R3
Nicolle CaliariRating 5.1Decision
UFC Fight Night: Dern vs. Ribas 2 · 2025-01
L · Dec · R3
Dione BarbosaRating 6.2Decision
UFC 301: Pantoja vs. Erceg · 2024-05
Caliari · Last 3
W · Sub · R3
Shauna BannonRating 6Submission
UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Costa · 2026-05
L · KO · R3
Carli JudiceRating 5.7KO/TKO
UFC 318: Holloway vs. Poirier 3 · 2025-07
L · Dec · R3
Ernesta KareckaiteRating 5.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Dern vs. Ribas 2 · 2025-01