UFC Fight Night: Dern vs. Ribas 2
Las Vegas, USA
11 Jan 2025
Women's Flyweight
VS
42%
Kareckaite
58%
Caliari
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
Ernesta
Ernesta Kareckaite
"Heavy-Handed"
6 – 2
5'9"71" reachOrthodox27 yrsWell-Rounded
CFR 34
Nicolle
Nicolle Caliari
9 – 4
Submission Hunter29 yrsOrthodox62" reach5'3"
CFR 47

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Caliari

This is a genuine toss-up — Kareckaite at 42% vs Caliari at 58% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.

Key angles

The CFR gap of 13 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.

Caliari has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 20 points.

Striking split: Kareckaite throws more volume but Caliari connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.

Kareckaite
Caliari
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'9"+
Height
5'3"
71"+
Reach
62"
27+
Age
29
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Kareckaite
Caliari
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
33.8
46.7
28.3
Performance Avg
40.3
25
Quality of Victory
45
40
Momentum Score
35
Kareckaite
Caliari
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
2.4
0.9
40%
Strike Accuracy
42%
0.7
Striking Style Score (/10)
0.7
0 KOs
KO Finishes
0 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
27
Head
9
5
Body
11
0
Leg
2
RangeRange
31Distance21
1Clinch0
0Ground1
Kareckaite
Caliari
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
2.4
/ 10
8.0
/ 10
1.7
Wrestling Style (/10)
5.6
0.0
Submission Style (/10)
10.0
0
Submission wins
1
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Kareckaite
Caliari
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
96
76
Never stopped
Verdict
Moderate
0
KO/TKO Losses
1
0
Sub Losses
0
—
KO round context
Avg R3.0 stoppage
—
Last KO loss
1 fight ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
3/8 fights
Chin rating based on
3/13 fights
Kareckaite
Caliari
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
40
35
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
Last 5
W · Sub · R3
L · KO · R3
L · Dec · R3
Kareckaite
Caliari
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
0%
100%
0
KO / TKO Wins
0
0
Submission Wins
1
1
Decision Wins
0

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Kareckaite
Caliari
Striking0.7 / 0.7Volume8.7 / 0.7Grappling2.4 / 8.0Wrestling1.7 / 5.6Submission0.0 / 10.0Pressure1.0 / 8.0
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
0.7
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
0.7
2.4
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
8.0
1.7
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
5.6
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
10.0
1.0
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
8.0
8.7
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
0.7
Kareckaite
Strike Zones
Caliari
Kareckaite
Attacking
27HEAD5BODY0LEGS32 landed
Absorbing
9HEAD11BODY2LEGS22 absorbed
Caliari
Attacking
9HEAD11BODY2LEGS22 landed
Absorbing
27HEAD5BODY0LEGS32 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Kareckaite targets the head (84% of attacks) — Caliari absorbs 84% of strikes there
🎯Caliari targets the body (50% of attacks) — Kareckaite absorbs 50% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Kareckaite
RND
Caliari
0/0R00/0

Kareckaite · QOF Timeline

Avg: 6.0
0106.2L5.1W6.8L2024-052025-012026-02
WinLossTrend

Caliari · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.7
0105.5L5.7L6.0W2025-012025-072026-05
WinLossTrend

Kareckaite · Last 3

L · Dec · R3
Regina TarinRating 6.8
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Kavanagh · 2026-02
W · Dec · R3
Nicolle CaliariRating 5.1
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Dern vs. Ribas 2 · 2025-01
L · Dec · R3
Dione BarbosaRating 6.2
Decision
UFC 301: Pantoja vs. Erceg · 2024-05

Caliari · Last 3

W · Sub · R3
Shauna BannonRating 6
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Costa · 2026-05
L · KO · R3
Carli JudiceRating 5.7
KO/TKO
UFC 318: Holloway vs. Poirier 3 · 2025-07
L · Dec · R3
Ernesta KareckaiteRating 5.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Dern vs. Ribas 2 · 2025-01

News & Media

Ernesta Kareckaite · Nicolle Caliari
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