★ Championship Bout · Heavyweight
UFC 309: Jones vs. Miocic
New York City, USA
16 Nov 2024
Heavyweight
VS
56%
Jones
44%
Miocic
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 3 · 4:29
Jon
Jon Jones
"Bones"
28 – 1
6'4"84" reachOrthodox38 yrs19-fight win streakWell-Rounded
CFR 71
Stipe
Stipe Miocic
20 – 5
Striker2-fight slide43 yrsOrthodox80" reach6'4"
CFR 56

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Jones

This is a genuine toss-up — Jones at 56% vs Miocic at 44% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.

Key angles

The CFR gap of 15 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.

Striking split: Miocic throws more volume but Jones connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.

Risk flags

Miocic has a chin rating of 10 — a potential KO vulnerability.

Jones
Miocic
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'4"
Height
6'4"
84"+
Reach
80"
38+
Age
43
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Jones
Miocic
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
70.9
56.3
74.6
Performance Avg
64.9
61
Quality of Victory
59
100
Momentum Score
78
Jones
Miocic
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.2
1.7
58%
Strike Accuracy
53%
4.6
Striking Style Score (/10)
7.9
6 KOs
KO Finishes
9 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
25
Head
12
5
Body
2
4
Leg
1
RangeRange
30Distance11
1Clinch4
3Ground0
Jones
Miocic
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
3.3
/ 10
0.9
/ 10
2.3
Wrestling Style (/10)
0.6
2.7
Submission Style (/10)
0.0
6
Submission wins
0
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Jones
Miocic
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
98
10
Never stopped
Verdict
2 consec. KOs
0
KO/TKO Losses
4
0
Sub Losses
0
—
KO round context
Avg R2.0 stoppage
—
Last KO loss
Most recent fight
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
24/29 fights
Chin rating based on
19/25 fights
Jones
Miocic
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
100
78
19-fight 🔥 win streak
Current form
2-fight 📉 slide
W · KO · R3
W · Sub · R1
W · Dec · R5
W · Dec · R5
W · Dec · R5
Last 5
L · KO · R3
L · KO · R2
W · Dec · R5
W · KO · R4
L · KO · R1
Jones
Miocic
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
55%
64%
6
KO / TKO Wins
9
6
Submission Wins
0
10
Decision Wins
5

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Jones
Miocic
Striking4.6 / 7.9Volume5.5 / 4.3Grappling3.3 / 0.9Wrestling2.3 / 0.6Submission2.7 / 0.0Pressure6.7 / 6.7
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
4.6
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
7.9
3.3
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
0.9
2.3
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.6
2.7
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
6.7
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
6.7
5.5
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
4.3
Jones
Strike Zones
Miocic
Jones
Attacking
25HEAD5BODY4LEGS34 landed
Absorbing
12HEAD2BODY1LEGS15 absorbed
Miocic
Attacking
12HEAD2BODY1LEGS15 landed
Absorbing
25HEAD5BODY4LEGS34 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Jones targets the head (74% of attacks) — Miocic absorbs 74% of strikes there
🎯Miocic targets the head (80% of attacks) — Jones absorbs 80% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Jones
RND
Miocic
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0

Jones · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.1
0104.5W4.5W5.2W4.0L5.0W5.0W5.2W5.2W5.4W5.1W4.5W5.4W5.0W4.5W4.9W4.5W5.1W5.2W5.7W4.5W5.5W6.8W6.3W2008-082011-022013-042019-032024-11
WinLossTrend

Miocic · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.5
0104.5W5.0W5.2W2.1L4.5W4.5W5.0W5.5L5.5W5.7W5.0W5.0W5.0W4.9W1.5L5.4W4.5W2.5L4.5L2011-102014-012016-052019-082024-11
WinLossTrend

Jones · Last 5

W · KO · R3
Stipe MiocicRating 6.3
KO/TKO
UFC 309: Jones vs. Miocic · 2024-11
W · Sub · R1
Ciryl GaneRating 6.8
Submission
UFC 285: Jones vs. Gane · 2023-03
W · Dec · R5
Dominick ReyesRating 5.5
Decision
UFC 247: Jones vs. Reyes · 2020-02
W · Dec · R5
Thiago SantosRating 4.5
Decision
UFC 239: Jones vs. Santos · 2019-07
W · Dec · R5
Anthony SmithRating 5.7
Decision
UFC 235: Jones vs. Smith · 2019-03

Miocic · Last 5

L · KO · R3
Jon JonesRating 4.5
KO/TKO
UFC 309: Jones vs. Miocic · 2024-11
L · KO · R2
Francis NgannouRating 2.5
KO/TKO
UFC 260: Miocic vs. Ngannou · 2021-03
W · Dec · R5
Daniel CormierRating 4.5
Decision
UFC 252: Miocic vs. Cormier 3 · 2020-08
W · KO · R4
Daniel CormierRating 5.4
KO/TKO
UFC 241: Cormier vs. Miocic 2 · 2019-08
L · KO · R1
Daniel CormierRating 1.5
KO/TKO
UFC 226: Miocic vs. Cormier · 2018-07

News & Media

Jon Jones · Stipe Miocic
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