UFC 131: Dos Santos vs Carwin
Vancouver, Canada
11 Jun 2011
Featherweight
VS
87%
Poirier
13%
Young
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Poirier
Poirier is a strong favourite at 87% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 53 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Poirier has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 25 points.
Poirier has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.
Risk flags
Poirier's chin rating of 0 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Poirier
Young
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'9"
Height
5'9"
72"
Reach
+73"
37+
Age
39
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
Poirier
Young
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
61.4
8.9
58.2
Performance Avg
25.0
50
Quality of Victory
25
100
Momentum Score
17
Poirier
Young
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.7
0.7
54%
Strike Accuracy
33%
6.0
Striking Style Score (/10)
0.5
10 KOs
KO Finishes
0 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
6
Head
5
0
Body
7
2
Leg
1
RangeRange
7Distance4
1Clinch4
0Ground5
Poirier
Young
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
2.2
/ 10
2.4
/ 10
1.6
Wrestling Style (/10)
1.7
1.8
Submission Style (/10)
0.0
4
Submission wins
0
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Poirier
Young
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
0
74
KO risk
Verdict
Moderate
3
KO/TKO Losses
1
4
Sub Losses
0
Avg R1.3 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.0 stoppage
3 fights ago
Last KO loss
Most recent fight
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
32/40 fights
Chin rating based on
4/15 fights
Poirier
Young
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
100
17
2-fight 📉 slide
Current form
L · Dec · R5
L · Sub · R5
W · KO · R2
L · KO · R2
W · Sub · R3
Last 5
L · KO · R1
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
Poirier
Young
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
64%
0%
10
KO / TKO Wins
0
4
Submission Wins
0
8
Decision Wins
1
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Poirier
Young
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
6.0
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
0.5
2.2
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
2.4
1.6
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.7
1.8
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
6.6
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
0.8
4.0
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
8.5
PoirierYoung
Strike Zones
Poirier
Attacking
8 landedAbsorbing
13 absorbedYoung
Attacking
13 landedAbsorbing
8 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Poirier targets the head (75% of attacks) — Young absorbs 75% of strikes there
🎯Young targets the body (54% of attacks) — Poirier absorbs 54% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Poirier
RND
Young
0/0R00/0
Poirier · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.1WinLossTrend
Young · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.6WinLossTrend
Poirier · Last 5
L · Dec · R5
Max HollowayRating 6.6Decision
UFC 318: Holloway vs. Poirier 3 · 2025-07
L · Sub · R5
Islam MakhachevRating 6Submission
UFC 302: Makhachev vs. Poirier · 2024-06
W · KO · R2
Benoit Saint DenisRating 6.9KO/TKO
UFC 299: O'Malley vs. Vera 2 · 2024-03
L · KO · R2
Justin GaethjeRating 3.7KO/TKO
UFC 291: Poirier vs. Gaethje 2 · 2023-07
W · Sub · R3
Michael ChandlerRating 6.3Submission
UFC 281: Adesanya vs. Pereira · 2022-11
Young · Last 4
L · KO · R1
Robert PeraltaRating 1.5KO/TKO
UFC on FUEL TV: Struve vs Miocic · 2012-09
W · Dec · R3
Eric WiselyRating 4.5Decision
UFC on FUEL TV: Gustafsson vs Silva · 2012-04
L · Dec · R3
Michihiro OmigawaRating 5.5Decision
UFC 138: Leben vs Munoz · 2011-11
L · Dec · R3
Dustin PoirierRating 6.8Decision
UFC 131: Dos Santos vs Carwin · 2011-06