UFC 85: Bedlam
London, United Kingdom
7 Jun 2008
Welterweight
VS
42%
Alves
58%
Hughes
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 2 · 1:02
TA
Thiago Alves
"Pitbull"
23 – 15
5'9"70" reachOrthodox42 yrs2-fight slideWell-Rounded
CFR 17
MH
Matt Hughes
45 – 9
Well-Rounded2-fight slide52 yrsSwitch73" reach5'9"
CFR 23

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Hughes

This is a genuine toss-up — Alves at 42% vs Hughes at 58% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.

Key angles

Hughes has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 18 points.

Striking split: Alves throws more volume but Hughes connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.

Risk flags

Alves's chin rating of 6 flags durability concerns based on KO history.

Hughes has a chin rating of 0 — a potential KO vulnerability.

Alves
Hughes
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'9"
Height
5'9"
70"
Reach
+73"
42+
Age
52
Orthodox
Stance
Switch
Alves
Hughes
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
16.5
23.0
47.3
Performance Avg
64.6
42
Quality of Victory
60
63
Momentum Score
100
Alves
Hughes
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.6
1.3
45%
Strike Accuracy
56%
5.8
Striking Style Score (/10)
4.8
7 KOs
KO Finishes
6 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
4
Head
0
0
Body
0
0
Leg
0
RangeRange
2Distance0
0Clinch0
2Ground0
Alves
Hughes
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.1
Sub Attempts / fight
0.1
1.5
Grappling Style Score (/10)
2.9
1.0
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
2.0
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Alves
Hughes
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
6
0
KO risk
Verdict
2 consec. KOs
2
KO/TKO Losses
4
3
Sub Losses
3
Avg R2.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.5 stoppage
4 fights ago
Last KO loss
Most recent fight
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
27/38 fights
Chin rating based on
25/54 fights
Alves
Hughes
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
63
100
2-fight 📉 slide
Current form
2-fight 📉 slide
L · Sub · R1
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R2
Last 5
L · KO · R1
L · KO · R1
W · Sub · R1
W · KO · R3
W · Dec · R3
Alves
Hughes
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
53%
61%
7
KO / TKO Wins
6
1
Submission Wins
5
7
Decision Wins
7

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Alves
Hughes
Striking5.8 / 4.8Volume4.3 / 3.7Grappling1.5 / 2.9Wrestling1.0 / 2.0Submission0.7 / 2.8Pressure5.4 / 6.4
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
5.8
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
4.8
1.5
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
2.9
1.0
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
2.0
0.7
Submission
Submission attack frequency
2.8
5.4
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
6.4
4.3
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
3.7
Alves
Strike Zones
Hughes
Alves
Attacking
4HEAD0BODY0LEGS4 landed
Absorbing
0HEAD0BODY0LEGS0 absorbed
Hughes
Attacking
0HEAD0BODY0LEGS0 landed
Absorbing
4HEAD0BODY0LEGS4 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Alves targets the head (100% of attacks) — Hughes absorbs 100% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Alves
RND
Hughes
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0

Alves · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.6
0102.8L5.0W5.0W2.8L4.5W5.2W5.2W4.2W5.2W5.2W4.5W5.5L5.5L4.5W5.5L5.0W4.0L4.5W5.2W4.4L5.9L4.5W2.8L5.5L5.1W5.5L1.6L2005-102007-112011-052017-042019-12
WinLossTrend

Hughes · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.0
0104.5W4.0W1.5L5.1W5.4W5.4W4.0W4.5W5.0W1.5L4.5W5.0W5.0W5.0W5.0W5.2W2.1L4.5W2.1L2.8L4.5W5.5W5.0W1.5L1.5L1999-092003-042006-052010-042011-09
WinLossTrend

Alves · Last 5

L · Sub · R1
Tim MeansRating 1.6
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Overeem vs. Rozenstruik · 2019-12
L · Dec · R3
Laureano StaropoliRating 5.5
Decision
UFC 237: Namajunas vs. Andrade · 2019-05
W · Dec · R3
Max GriffinRating 5.1
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Assuncao vs. Moraes 2 · 2019-02
L · Dec · R3
Aleksei KunchenkoRating 5.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Hunt vs. Oleinik · 2018-09
L · KO · R2
Curtis MillenderRating 2.8
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Cerrone vs. Medeiros · 2018-02

Hughes · Last 5

L · KO · R1
Josh KoscheckRating 1.5
KO/TKO
UFC 135: Jones vs Rampage · 2011-09
L · KO · R1
BJ PennRating 1.5
KO/TKO
UFC 123: Rampage vs Machida · 2010-11
W · Sub · R1
Ricardo AlmeidaRating 5
Submission
UFC 117: Silva vs Sonnen · 2010-08
W · KO · R3
Renzo GracieRating 5.5
KO/TKO
UFC 112: Invincible · 2010-04
W · Dec · R3
Matt SerraRating 4.5
Decision
UFC 98: Evans vs Machida · 2009-05

News & Media

Thiago Alves · Matt Hughes
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