METRICS GUIDE
Every stat on this page, explained
All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.
UFC Fight Night: Lee vs. Oliveira
Brasilia, Brazil
14 Mar 2020
Flyweight
VS
22%
Formiga
78%
Moreno
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
★ Official Result
Brandon MorenowinsDecisionR3 · 5:00
def. Jussier Formiga · UFC Fight Night: Lee vs. Oliveira
Fight Report
Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result
Prediction vs Result
We predicted
Moreno
→
Actual result
Moreno wins
Decision · R3
Pre-fight analysis
Moreno is a strong favourite at 78% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 38 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Moreno has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 13 points.
Risk flags
Formiga's chin rating of 6 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Moreno has a chin rating of 66 — a potential KO vulnerability.
This Fight — Statistics
Actual stats from this bout
FormigaMoreno
0
Sig. Strikes
0
0.0
Strikes / min (SLpM)
0.0
—
Strike Accuracy
—
Formiga
Moreno
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'5"
Height
+5'7"
67"
Reach
+70"
41
Age
+32
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Formiga
Moreno
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
14.9
52.8
42.7
Performance Avg
52.5
34
Quality of Victory
47
64
Momentum Score
54
Formiga
Moreno
Striking
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
1.1
/ 10
3.0
/ 10
4.0
Style: Pressure
5.0
6.5
Style: Volume
4.9
0 KO wins
Finish Rate (strikes)
2 KO wins
Per-minute strike stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Strike targetStrike target
4
Head
10
2
Body
1
1
Leg
0
RangeRange
6Distance10
0Clinch1
1Ground0
Formiga
Moreno
Grappling
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
4.3
/ 10
3.3
/ 10
3.0
Wrestling Style (/10)
2.3
3.3
Submission Style (/10)
2.7
3
Submission wins
3
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Formiga
Moreno
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
6
66
KO risk
Verdict
Moderate
4
KO/TKO Losses
1
0
Sub Losses
0
Avg R1.5 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R2.0 stoppage
Most recent fight
Last KO loss
2 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
16/31 fights
Chin rating based on
21/33 fights
Formiga
Moreno
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
64
54
3-fight 📉 slide
Current form
2-fight 📉 slide
L · KO · R1
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R2
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
Last 5
Upcoming
L · Dec · R5
L · KO · R2
W · Dec · R5
W · Dec · R5
Formiga
Moreno
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
33%
46%
0
KO / TKO Wins
2
3
Submission Wins
3
6
Decision Wins
6
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Formiga
Moreno
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
1.1
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
3.0
4.3
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
3.3
3.0
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
2.3
3.3
Submission
Submission attack frequency
2.7
4.0
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
5.0
6.5
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
4.9
FormigaMoreno
Strike Zones
Formiga
Attacking
7 landedAbsorbing
11 absorbedMoreno
Attacking
11 landedAbsorbing
7 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Formiga targets the head (57% of attacks) — Moreno absorbs 57% of strikes there
🎯Moreno targets the head (91% of attacks) — Formiga absorbs 91% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Formiga
RND
Moreno
0/0R00/0
Formiga · Last 5
L · KO · R1
Alex PerezKO/TKO
UFC 250: Nunes vs. Spencer · 2020-06
L · Dec · R3
Brandon MorenoDecision
UFC Fight Night: Lee vs. Oliveira · 2020-03
L · KO · R2
Joseph BenavidezKO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Ngannou vs. Dos Santos · 2019-06
W · Dec · R3
Deiveson FigueiredoDecision
UFC Fight Night: Thompson vs. Pettis · 2019-03
W · Dec · R3
Sergio PettisDecision
UFC 229: Khabib vs. McGregor · 2018-10
Moreno · Last 5
Upcoming
Joseph MoralesNoche UFC: Silva vs. Delgado · 2026-09
L · Dec · R5
Lone'er KavanaghDecision
UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Kavanagh · 2026-02
L · KO · R2
Tatsuro TairaKO/TKO
UFC 323: Dvalishvili vs. Yan 2 · 2025-12
W · Dec · R5
Steve ErcegDecision
UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Erceg · 2025-03
W · Dec · R5
Amir AlbaziDecision
UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Albazi · 2024-11