The Ultimate Fighter: Undefeated Finale
Las Vegas, USA
6 Jul 2018
Women's Flyweight
VS
77%
Rosa
23%
Ostovich
Win Probability
Submission
Round 3 · 4:21
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Rosa
Rosa is a strong favourite at 77% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 39 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Ostovich has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 12 points.
Striking split: Rosa throws more volume but Ostovich connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.
Risk flags
Ostovich has a chin rating of 54 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Rosa
Ostovich
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'7"+
Height
5'3"
68"+
Reach
62"
31+
Age
35
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Rosa
Ostovich
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
55.1
16.5
47.2
Performance Avg
42.4
42
Quality of Victory
54
100
Momentum Score
36
Rosa
Ostovich
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.3
0.7
45%
Strike Accuracy
45%
2.8
Striking Style Score (/10)
0.5
1 KOs
KO Finishes
0 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
17
Head
4
1
Body
3
0
Leg
0
RangeRange
3Distance6
0Clinch1
15Ground0
Rosa
Ostovich
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
4.8
/ 10
8.0
/ 10
3.4
Wrestling Style (/10)
5.6
5.0
Submission Style (/10)
10.0
3
Submission wins
1
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Rosa
Ostovich
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
80
54
Never stopped
Verdict
KO risk
0
KO/TKO Losses
1
1
Sub Losses
2
—
KO round context
Avg R3.0 stoppage
—
Last KO loss
Most recent fight
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
12/22 fights
Chin rating based on
4/10 fights
Rosa
Ostovich
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
100
36
Current form
3-fight 📉 slide
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R2
L · Dec · R3
W · KO · R2
Last 5
L · KO · R3
L · Sub · R2
L · Sub · R3
W · Sub · R1
Rosa
Ostovich
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
67%
100%
1
KO / TKO Wins
0
3
Submission Wins
1
2
Decision Wins
0
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Rosa
Ostovich
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
2.8
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
0.5
4.8
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
8.0
3.4
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
5.6
5.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
10.0
6.3
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
7.8
3.8
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
0.5
RosaOstovich
Strike Zones
Rosa
Attacking
18 landedAbsorbing
7 absorbedOstovich
Attacking
7 landedAbsorbing
18 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Rosa targets the head (94% of attacks) — Ostovich absorbs 94% of strikes there
🎯Ostovich targets the head (57% of attacks) — Rosa absorbs 57% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Rosa
RND
Ostovich
0/0R00/0
Rosa · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.4WinLossTrend
Ostovich · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.2WinLossTrend
Rosa · Last 5
W · Dec · R3
Andrea LeeRating 4.9Decision
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L · Dec · R3
JJ AldrichRating 6.1Decision
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L · Sub · R2
Tatiana SuarezRating 4.6Submission
UFC Fight Night: Muniz vs. Allen · 2023-02
L · Dec · R3
Maycee BarberRating 6.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Lemos vs. Andrade · 2022-04
W · KO · R2
Ariane da SilvaRating 5.2KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Rozenstruik vs. Sakai · 2021-06
Ostovich · Last 4
L · KO · R3
Gina MazanyRating 4KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Smith vs. Clark · 2020-11
L · Sub · R2
Paige VanZantRating 2.8Submission
UFC Fight Night: Cejudo vs. Dillashaw · 2019-01
L · Sub · R3
Montana De La RosaRating 5Submission
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W · Sub · R1
Karine GevorgyanRating 5Submission
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