★ Championship Bout · Heavyweight
UFC 15: Collision Course
Bay St. Louis, USA
17 Oct 1997
Heavyweight
VS
58%
Smith
42%
Abbott
Win Probability
Submission
Round 1 · 8:08
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Smith
This is a genuine toss-up — Smith at 58% vs Abbott at 42% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.
Key angles
Striking split: Abbott throws more volume but Smith connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.
Risk flags
Abbott has a chin rating of 0 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Smith
Abbott
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'2"+
Height
6'0"
64
Age
+61
Orthodox
Stance
Switch
Smith
Abbott
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
21.2
15.6
53.4
Performance Avg
50.4
51
Quality of Victory
54
76
Momentum Score
26
Smith
Abbott
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
0.8
1.6
75%
Strike Accuracy
45%
3.6
Striking Style Score (/10)
7.1
1 KOs
KO Finishes
5 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
7
Head
5
0
Body
0
5
Leg
0
RangeRange
5Distance1
1Clinch2
6Ground2
Smith
Abbott
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
—
Sub Attempts / fight
0.2
3.2
Grappling Style Score (/10)
2.3
2.2
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
1.6
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Smith
Abbott
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
94
0
Never stopped
Verdict
KO risk
0
KO/TKO Losses
2
0
Sub Losses
5
—
KO round context
Avg R1.0 stoppage
—
Last KO loss
3 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
7/26 fights
Chin rating based on
18/25 fights
Smith
Abbott
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
76
26
Current form
4-fight 📉 slide
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
W · KO · R1
L · Dec · R2
L · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · R1
L · Sub · R1
L · Sub · R1
L · KO · R1
W · KO · R1
Smith
Abbott
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
50%
88%
1
KO / TKO Wins
5
1
Submission Wins
2
2
Decision Wins
1
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Smith
Abbott
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
3.6
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
7.1
3.2
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
2.3
2.2
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.6
2.5
Submission
Submission attack frequency
2.5
5.2
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
7.5
5.1
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
1.9
SmithAbbott
Strike Zones
Smith
Attacking
12 landedAbsorbing
5 absorbedAbbott
Attacking
5 landedAbsorbing
12 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Smith targets the head (58% of attacks) — Abbott absorbs 58% of strikes there
🎯Abbott targets the head (100% of attacks) — Smith absorbs 100% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Smith
RND
Abbott
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0
Smith · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.0WinLossTrend
Abbott · QOF Timeline
Avg: 3.5WinLossTrend
Smith · Last 5
L · Dec · R3
Renato SobralRating 5.5Decision
UFC 28: High Stakes · 2000-11
W · Dec · R3
Bobby HoffmanRating 4.5Decision
UFC 27: Ultimate Bad Boyz · 2000-09
W · KO · R1
Marco RuasRating 5KO/TKO
UFC 21: Return of the Champions · 1999-07
L · Dec · R2
Kevin RandlemanRating 4.8Decision
UFC 19: Ultimate Young Guns · 1999-03
L · Dec · R3
Randy CoutureRating 5.5Decision
UFC - Ultimate Japan · 1997-12
Abbott · Last 5
L · R1
Wesley CorreiraRating 4UFC 45: Revolution · 2003-11
L · Sub · R1
Kimo LeopoldoRating 1.5Submission
UFC 43: Meltdown · 2003-06
L · Sub · R1
Frank MirRating 1.5Submission
UFC 41: Onslaught · 2003-02
L · KO · R1
Pedro RizzoRating 1.5KO/TKO
UFC - Ultimate Brazil · 1998-10
W · KO · R1
Hugo DuarteRating 5KO/TKO
UFC 17: Redemption · 1998-05