METRICS GUIDE
Every stat on this page, explained
All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.
UFC 323: Dvalishvili vs. Yan 2
Las Vegas, USA
6 Dec 2025
Lightweight
VS
51%
McKinney
49%
Duncan
Win Probability
Submission
Round 1 · 2:30
★ Official Result
Chris DuncanwinsSubmissionR1 · 2:30
def. Terrance McKinney · UFC 323: Dvalishvili vs. Yan 2
Fight Report
Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result
Prediction vs Result
We predicted
McKinney
→
Actual result
Duncan wins
Submission · R1
Pre-fight analysis
This is a genuine toss-up — McKinney at 51% vs Duncan at 49% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.
Key angles
McKinney has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 19 points.
Risk flags
McKinney's chin rating of 0 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
This Fight — Statistics
Actual stats from this bout
McKinneyDuncan
0
Sig. Strikes
0
0.0
Strikes / min (SLpM)
0.0
—
Strike Accuracy
—
McKinney
Duncan
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'10"
Height
5'10"
73"+
Reach
71"
31+
Age
33
Switch
Stance
Orthodox
McKinney
Duncan
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
63.9
60.4
57.5
Performance Avg
53.2
58
Quality of Victory
39
98
Momentum Score
89
McKinney
Duncan
Striking
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
7.4
/ 10
1.5
/ 10
8.7
Style: Pressure
5.8
1.1
Style: Volume
5.5
5 KO wins
Finish Rate (strikes)
0 KO wins
Per-minute strike stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Strike targetStrike target
26
Head
36
5
Body
2
0
Leg
0
RangeRange
24Distance10
6Clinch6
1Ground22
McKinney
Duncan
Grappling
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
3.0
/ 10
5.2
/ 10
2.1
Wrestling Style (/10)
3.6
3.8
Submission Style (/10)
5.0
3
Submission wins
3
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
McKinney
Duncan
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
0
76
KO risk
Verdict
Never stopped
4
KO/TKO Losses
0
2
Sub Losses
2
Avg R1.3 stoppage
KO round context
—
Most recent fight
Last KO loss
—
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
14/26 fights
Chin rating based on
8/18 fights
McKinney
Duncan
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
98
89
L · KO · R1
W · KO · R1
L · Sub · R1
W · Sub · R1
W · KO · R1
Last 5
L · Sub · R2
W · Sub · R1
W · Dec · R3
W · Sub · R2
W · Sub · R1
McKinney
Duncan
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
100%
50%
5
KO / TKO Wins
0
3
Submission Wins
3
0
Decision Wins
3
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
McKinney
Duncan
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
7.4
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
1.5
3.0
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
5.2
2.1
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
3.6
3.8
Submission
Submission attack frequency
5.0
8.7
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
5.8
1.1
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
5.5
McKinneyDuncan
Strike Zones
McKinney
Attacking
31 landedAbsorbing
38 absorbedDuncan
Attacking
38 landedAbsorbing
31 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯McKinney targets the head (84% of attacks) — Duncan absorbs 84% of strikes there
🎯Duncan targets the head (95% of attacks) — McKinney absorbs 95% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
McKinney
RND
Duncan
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0
McKinney · Last 5
L · KO · R1
King GreenKO/TKO
UFC 329: McGregor vs. Holloway 2 · 2026-07
W · KO · R1
Kyle NelsonKO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Adesanya vs. Pyfer · 2026-03
L · Sub · R1
Chris DuncanSubmission
UFC 323: Dvalishvili vs. Yan 2 · 2025-12
W · Sub · R1
Viacheslav BorshchevSubmission
UFC 317: Topuria vs. Oliveira · 2025-06
W · KO · R1
Damir HadzovicKO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Adesanya vs. Imavov · 2025-02
Duncan · Last 5
L · Sub · R2
Renato MoicanoSubmission
UFC Fight Night: Moicano vs. Duncan · 2026-04
W · Sub · R1
Terrance McKinneySubmission
UFC 323: Dvalishvili vs. Yan 2 · 2025-12
W · Dec · R3
Mateusz RebeckiDecision
UFC Fight Night: Taira vs. Park · 2025-08
W · Sub · R2
Jordan VucenicSubmission
UFC Fight Night: Edwards vs. Brady · 2025-03
W · Sub · R1
Bolaji OkiSubmission
UFC Fight Night: Moicano vs. Saint Denis · 2024-09