UFC 323: Dvalishvili vs. Yan 2
Las Vegas, USA
6 Dec 2025
Lightweight
VS
52%
McKinney
48%
Duncan
Win Probability
Submission
Round 1 · 2:30
Terrance
Terrance McKinney
"T. Wrecks"
18 – 8
5'10"73" reachSwitch31 yrsKnockout Artist
CFR 66
Chris
Chris Duncan
"The Problem"
15 – 3
Well-Rounded33 yrsOrthodox71" reach5'10"
CFR 60

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: McKinney

This is a genuine toss-up — McKinney at 52% vs Duncan at 48% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.

Key angles

McKinney has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 19 points.

McKinney has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.

Risk flags

McKinney's chin rating of 10 flags durability concerns based on KO history.

McKinney
Duncan
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'10"
Height
5'10"
73"+
Reach
71"
31+
Age
33
Switch
Stance
Orthodox
McKinney
Duncan
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
65.7
60.4
59.3
Performance Avg
53.2
58
Quality of Victory
39
98
Momentum Score
89
McKinney
Duncan
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
5.1
2.5
56%
Strike Accuracy
50%
7.5
Striking Style Score (/10)
1.5
5 KOs
KO Finishes
0 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
26
Head
36
5
Body
2
0
Leg
0
RangeRange
24Distance10
6Clinch6
1Ground22
McKinney
Duncan
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.3
Sub Attempts / fight
—
3.0
Grappling Style Score (/10)
5.2
2.1
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
3.6
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
McKinney
Duncan
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
10
76
KO risk
Verdict
Never stopped
3
KO/TKO Losses
0
2
Sub Losses
2
Avg R1.3 stoppage
KO round context
—
4 fights ago
Last KO loss
—
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
13/26 fights
Chin rating based on
8/18 fights
McKinney
Duncan
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
98
89
W · KO · R1
L · Sub · R1
W · Sub · R1
W · KO · R1
L · KO · R1
Last 5
L · Sub · R2
W · Sub · R1
W · Dec · R3
W · Sub · R2
W · Sub · R1
McKinney
Duncan
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
100%
50%
5
KO / TKO Wins
0
3
Submission Wins
3
0
Decision Wins
3

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

McKinney
Duncan
Striking7.5 / 1.5Volume1.2 / 5.5Grappling3.0 / 5.2Wrestling2.1 / 3.6Submission3.8 / 5.0Pressure8.8 / 5.8
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
7.5
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
1.5
3.0
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
5.2
2.1
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
3.6
3.8
Submission
Submission attack frequency
5.0
8.8
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
5.8
1.2
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
5.5
McKinney
Strike Zones
Duncan
McKinney
Attacking
26HEAD5BODY0LEGS31 landed
Absorbing
36HEAD2BODY0LEGS38 absorbed
Duncan
Attacking
36HEAD2BODY0LEGS38 landed
Absorbing
26HEAD5BODY0LEGS31 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯McKinney targets the head (84% of attacks) — Duncan absorbs 84% of strikes there
🎯Duncan targets the head (95% of attacks) — McKinney absorbs 95% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

McKinney
RND
Duncan
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0

McKinney · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.4
0105.2W6.2W2.7L5.0W3.1L4.2L5.0W5.0W2.2L5.0W5.5W2.8L5.1W2021-062023-012024-052026-03
WinLossTrend

Duncan · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.8
0104.5W5.4W3.6L5.0W5.2W5.1W6.5W2.9L2023-032024-022025-032025-122026-04
WinLossTrend

McKinney · Last 5

W · KO · R1
Kyle NelsonRating 5.1
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Adesanya vs. Pyfer · 2026-03
L · Sub · R1
Chris DuncanRating 2.8
Submission
UFC 323: Dvalishvili vs. Yan 2 · 2025-12
W · Sub · R1
Viacheslav BorshchevRating 5.5
Submission
UFC 317: Topuria vs. Oliveira · 2025-06
W · KO · R1
Damir HadzovicRating 5
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Adesanya vs. Imavov · 2025-02
L · KO · R1
Esteban RibovicsRating 2.2
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Nascimento · 2024-05

Duncan · Last 5

L · Sub · R2
Renato MoicanoRating 2.9
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Moicano vs. Duncan · 2026-04
W · Sub · R1
Terrance McKinneyRating 6.5
Submission
UFC 323: Dvalishvili vs. Yan 2 · 2025-12
W · Dec · R3
Mateusz RebeckiRating 5.1
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Taira vs. Park · 2025-08
W · Sub · R2
Jordan VucenicRating 5.2
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Edwards vs. Brady · 2025-03
W · Sub · R1
Bolaji OkiRating 5
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Moicano vs. Saint Denis · 2024-09

News & Media

Terrance McKinney · Chris Duncan
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