UFC 301: Pantoja vs. Erceg
Rio de Janeiro, Brazil
4 May 2024
Bantamweight
VS
49%
Aldo
51%
Martinez
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
Jose
Jose Aldo
32 – 10
5'7"70" reachOrthodox39 yrs2-fight slideWell-Rounded
CFR 45
Jonathan
Jonathan Martinez
"Dragon"
19 – 6
Well-Rounded2-fight slide32 yrsSouthpaw70" reach5'8"
CFR 46

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Martinez

This is a genuine toss-up — Aldo at 49% vs Martinez at 51% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.

Key angles

Aldo has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 13 points.

Martinez has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.

Risk flags

Aldo's chin rating of 2 flags durability concerns based on KO history.

Aldo
Martinez
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'7"
Height
+5'8"
70"
Reach
70"
39
Age
+32
Orthodox
Stance
Southpaw
Aldo
Martinez
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
44.5
46.0
53.6
Performance Avg
48.3
49
Quality of Victory
36
40
Momentum Score
63
Aldo
Martinez
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
0.9
1.6
48%
Strike Accuracy
51%
4.1
Striking Style Score (/10)
5.3
4 KOs
KO Finishes
4 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
21
Head
16
9
Body
6
0
Leg
1
RangeRange
23Distance21
5Clinch1
2Ground1
Aldo
Martinez
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
1.7
/ 10
1.4
/ 10
1.2
Wrestling Style (/10)
1.0
0.0
Submission Style (/10)
0.0
0
Submission wins
0
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Aldo
Martinez
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
2
70
2 consec. KOs
Verdict
Moderate
4
KO/TKO Losses
1
0
Sub Losses
0
Avg R3.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R2.0 stoppage
7 fights ago
Last KO loss
8 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
23/42 fights
Chin rating based on
15/25 fights
Aldo
Martinez
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
40
63
2-fight 📉 slide
Current form
2-fight 📉 slide
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R5
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · KO · R2
W · Dec · R3
W · KO · R2
Aldo
Martinez
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
29%
40%
4
KO / TKO Wins
4
0
Submission Wins
0
10
Decision Wins
6

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Aldo
Martinez
Striking4.1 / 5.3Volume6.9 / 6.1Grappling1.7 / 1.4Wrestling1.2 / 1.0Submission0.0 / 0.0Pressure3.8 / 4.8
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
4.1
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
5.3
1.7
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
1.4
1.2
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.0
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
3.8
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
4.8
6.9
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
6.1
Aldo
Strike Zones
Martinez
Aldo
Attacking
21HEAD9BODY0LEGS30 landed
Absorbing
16HEAD6BODY1LEGS23 absorbed
Martinez
Attacking
16HEAD6BODY1LEGS23 landed
Absorbing
21HEAD9BODY0LEGS30 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Aldo targets the head (70% of attacks) — Martinez absorbs 70% of strikes there
🎯Martinez targets the head (70% of attacks) — Aldo absorbs 70% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Aldo
RND
Martinez
0/0R00/0

Aldo · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.2
0104.5W4.5W5.0W4.5W5.9W4.5W4.5W3.5L4.5W3.8L3.8L5.5W6.0W7.0L5.5L5.5L5.3W5.0W5.7W6.8L5.0W6.6L6.6L2011-042014-102019-022021-122025-05
WinLossTrend

Martinez · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.3
0105.5L4.5W5.5W5.5L5.5W4.5W3.6L4.5W4.5W4.5W5.8W5.9W6.7W6.0L7.2L2018-102020-082022-022023-102024-11
WinLossTrend

Aldo · Last 5

L · Dec · R3
Aiemann ZahabiRating 6.6
Decision
UFC 315: Muhammad vs. Della Maddalena · 2025-05
L · Dec · R3
Mario BautistaRating 6.6
Decision
UFC 307: Pereira vs. Rountree Jr. · 2024-10
W · Dec · R3
Jonathan MartinezRating 5
Decision
UFC 301: Pantoja vs. Erceg · 2024-05
L · Dec · R3
Merab DvalishviliRating 6.8
Decision
UFC 278: Usman vs. Edwards · 2022-08
W · Dec · R5
Rob FontRating 5.7
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Font vs. Aldo · 2021-12

Martinez · Last 5

L · Dec · R3
Marcus McGheeRating 7.2
Decision
UFC 309: Jones vs. Miocic · 2024-11
L · Dec · R3
Jose AldoRating 6
Decision
UFC 301: Pantoja vs. Erceg · 2024-05
W · KO · R2
Adrian YanezRating 6.7
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Yusuff vs. Barboza · 2023-10
W · Dec · R3
Said NurmagomedovRating 5.9
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Yan vs. Dvalishvili · 2023-03
W · KO · R2
Cub SwansonRating 5.8
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Grasso vs. Araujo · 2022-10

News & Media

Jose Aldo · Jonathan Martinez
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