UFC 321: Aspinall vs. Gane
Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates
25 Oct 2025
Heavyweight
VS
46%
Volkov
54%
Almeida
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Almeida
This is a genuine toss-up — Volkov at 46% vs Almeida at 54% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 11 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Almeida has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 11 points.
Striking split: Volkov throws more volume but Almeida connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.
Risk flags
Volkov's chin rating of 60 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Volkov
Almeida
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'7"+
Height
6'3"
80"+
Reach
79"
37
Age
+34
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Volkov
Almeida
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
60.2
70.9
54.7
Performance Avg
61.0
42
Quality of Victory
53
88
Momentum Score
100
Volkov
Almeida
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.8
1.7
58%
Strike Accuracy
64%
5.8
Striking Style Score (/10)
5.2
6 KOs
KO Finishes
3 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
2
Head
4
5
Body
1
0
Leg
0
RangeRange
1Distance0
6Clinch4
0Ground1
Volkov
Almeida
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
—
Sub Attempts / fight
0.2
1.8
Grappling Style Score (/10)
4.3
1.2
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
3.0
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Volkov
Almeida
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
60
74
Moderate
Verdict
Moderate
1
KO/TKO Losses
1
1
Sub Losses
0
Avg R3.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R2.0 stoppage
14 fights ago
Last KO loss
4 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
19/51 fights
Chin rating based on
11/27 fights
Volkov
Almeida
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
88
100
2-fight 🔥 win streak
Current form
2-fight 📉 slide
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
W · Sub · R2
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · KO · R1
W · Sub · R1
L · KO · R2
Volkov
Almeida
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
50%
88%
6
KO / TKO Wins
3
1
Submission Wins
4
7
Decision Wins
1
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Volkov
Almeida
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
5.8
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
5.2
1.8
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
4.3
1.2
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
3.0
0.7
Submission
Submission attack frequency
5.0
5.7
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
8.3
5.5
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
2.5
VolkovAlmeida
Strike Zones
Volkov
Attacking
7 landedAbsorbing
5 absorbedAlmeida
Attacking
5 landedAbsorbing
7 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Volkov targets the body (71% of attacks) — Almeida absorbs 71% of strikes there
🎯Almeida targets the head (80% of attacks) — Volkov absorbs 80% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Volkov
RND
Almeida
0/0R00/0
Volkov · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.5WinLossTrend
Almeida · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.4WinLossTrend
Volkov · Last 5
W · Dec · R3
Waldo Cortes AcostaRating 6Decision
UFC 328: Chimaev vs. Strickland · 2026-05
W · Dec · R3
Jailton AlmeidaRating 6.3Decision
UFC 321: Aspinall vs. Gane · 2025-10
L · Dec · R3
Ciryl GaneRating 7.2Decision
UFC 310: Pantoja vs. Asakura · 2024-12
W · Dec · R3
Sergei PavlovichRating 5.7Decision
UFC Fight Night: Whittaker vs. Aliskerov · 2024-06
W · Sub · R2
Tai TuivasaRating 5.7Submission
UFC 293: Adesanya vs. Strickland · 2023-09
Almeida · Last 5
L · Dec · R3
Rizvan KunievRating 5.8Decision
UFC Fight Night: Bautista vs. Oliveira · 2026-02
L · Dec · R3
Alexander VolkovRating 6.8Decision
UFC 321: Aspinall vs. Gane · 2025-10
W · KO · R1
Serghei SpivacRating 5.5KO/TKO
UFC 311: Makhachev vs. Moicano · 2025-01
W · Sub · R1
Alexandr RomanovRating 5.8Submission
UFC 302: Makhachev vs. Poirier · 2024-06
L · KO · R2
Curtis BlaydesRating 3.7KO/TKO
UFC 299: O'Malley vs. Vera 2 · 2024-03