The Ultimate Fighter: Team Carwin vs. Team Nelson Finale
Las Vegas, USA
15 Dec 2012
Flyweight
VS
6%
Papazian
94%
Elliott
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Elliott
Elliott is a strong favourite at 94% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 34 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Elliott has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 33 points.
Striking split: Papazian throws more volume but Elliott connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.
Risk flags
Elliott has a chin rating of 26 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Papazian
Elliott
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'8"+
Height
5'7"
67"+
Reach
66"
38+
Age
39
Southpaw
Stance
Southpaw
Papazian
Elliott
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
2.4
36.8
0.0
Performance Avg
37.9
0
Quality of Victory
33
0
Momentum Score
43
Papazian
Elliott
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.4
1.4
35%
Strike Accuracy
44%
0.0
Striking Style Score (/10)
0.9
0 KOs
KO Finishes
0 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
4
Head
7
0
Body
1
0
Leg
0
RangeRange
3Distance2
0Clinch4
1Ground2
Papazian
Elliott
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
—
Sub Attempts / fight
0.1
0.0
Grappling Style Score (/10)
4.1
0.0
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
2.9
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Papazian
Elliott
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
84
26
Never stopped
Verdict
Never stopped
0
KO/TKO Losses
0
1
Sub Losses
5
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
3/33 fights
Chin rating based on
22/36 fights
Papazian
Elliott
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
0
43
3-fight 📉 slide
Current form
L · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R1
L · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
W · Sub · R2
W · Sub · R1
L · Sub · R3
W · Dec · R3
Papazian
Elliott
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
0%
30%
0
KO / TKO Wins
0
0
Submission Wins
3
0
Decision Wins
7
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Papazian
Elliott
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
0.0
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
0.9
0.0
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
4.1
0.0
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
2.9
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
3.0
0.0
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
3.5
0.0
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
6.5
PapazianElliott
Strike Zones
Papazian
Attacking
4 landedAbsorbing
8 absorbedElliott
Attacking
8 landedAbsorbing
4 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Papazian targets the head (100% of attacks) — Elliott absorbs 100% of strikes there
🎯Elliott targets the head (88% of attacks) — Papazian absorbs 88% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Papazian
RND
Elliott
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0
Papazian · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.2WinLossTrend
Elliott · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.7WinLossTrend
Papazian · Last 3
L · Dec · R3
Tim ElliottRating 5.6Decision
The Ultimate Fighter: Team Carwin vs. Team Nelson Finale · 2012-12
L · Sub · R1
Dustin PagueRating 1.5Submission
UFC on FX: Johnson vs McCall · 2012-06
L · Dec · R3
Mike EastonRating 5.5Decision
UFC on FX: Guillard vs Miller · 2012-01
Elliott · Last 5
L · Dec · R3
Steve ErcegRating 6.1Decision
UFC Fight Night: Della Maddalena vs. Prates · 2026-05
W · Sub · R2
Kai AsakuraRating 5.2Submission
UFC 319: Du Plessis vs. Chimaev · 2025-08
W · Sub · R1
SumudaerjiRating 5.6Submission
UFC Fight Night: Song vs. Gutierrez · 2023-12
L · Sub · R3
Muhammad MokaevRating 5.4Submission
UFC 294: Makhachev vs. Volkanovski 2 · 2023-10
W · Dec · R3
Victor AltamiranoRating 4.6Decision
UFC Fight Night: Kara-France vs. Albazi · 2023-06