UFC Fight Night: Lineker vs. Dodson
Portland, USA
1 Oct 2016
Flyweight
VS
34%
Smolka
66%
Moreno
Win Probability
Submission
Round 1 · 2:23
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Moreno
Moreno holds a meaningful edge at 66% per the CFR ratings — but Smolka has real paths to victory.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 26 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Smolka has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.
Risk flags
Smolka's chin rating of 12 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Moreno has a chin rating of 66 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Smolka
Moreno
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'9"+
Height
5'7"
68"
Reach
+70"
34
Age
+32
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Smolka
Moreno
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
26.6
52.8
46.5
Performance Avg
52.5
46
Quality of Victory
47
60
Momentum Score
54
Smolka
Moreno
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
2.2
1.1
51%
Strike Accuracy
44%
5.9
Striking Style Score (/10)
3.0
4 KOs
KO Finishes
2 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
6
Head
7
1
Body
1
0
Leg
0
RangeRange
2Distance3
0Clinch1
5Ground4
Smolka
Moreno
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.5
Sub Attempts / fight
0.1
2.6
Grappling Style Score (/10)
3.3
1.8
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
2.3
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Smolka
Moreno
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
12
66
2 consec. KOs
Verdict
Moderate
2
KO/TKO Losses
1
3
Sub Losses
0
Avg R2.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R2.0 stoppage
Most recent fight
Last KO loss
1 fight ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
17/26 fights
Chin rating based on
20/33 fights
Smolka
Moreno
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
60
54
2-fight 📉 slide
Current form
2-fight 📉 slide
L · KO · R3
L · KO · R1
W · KO · R2
L · Sub · R1
W · KO · R1
Last 5
L · Dec · R5
L · KO · R2
W · Dec · R5
W · Dec · R5
L · Dec · R5
Smolka
Moreno
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
75%
46%
4
KO / TKO Wins
2
2
Submission Wins
3
2
Decision Wins
6
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Smolka
Moreno
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
5.9
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
3.0
2.6
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
3.3
1.8
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
2.3
2.5
Submission
Submission attack frequency
2.7
6.7
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
5.0
2.9
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
4.9
SmolkaMoreno
Strike Zones
Smolka
Attacking
7 landedAbsorbing
8 absorbedMoreno
Attacking
8 landedAbsorbing
7 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Smolka targets the head (86% of attacks) — Moreno absorbs 86% of strikes there
🎯Moreno targets the head (88% of attacks) — Smolka absorbs 88% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Smolka
RND
Moreno
0/0R00/0
Smolka · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.4WinLossTrend
Moreno · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.6WinLossTrend
Smolka · Last 5
L · KO · R3
Davey GrantRating 4.8KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Blachowicz vs. Rakic · 2022-05
L · KO · R1
Vince MoralesRating 1.5KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Font vs. Aldo · 2021-12
W · KO · R2
Jose QuinonezRating 5.2KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Hermansson vs. Vettori · 2020-12
L · Sub · R1
Casey KenneyRating 1.5Submission
UFC Fight Night: Woodley vs. Burns · 2020-05
W · KO · R1
Ryan MacDonaldRating 5KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Cowboy vs. Gaethje · 2019-09
Moreno · Last 5
L · Dec · R5
Lone'er KavanaghRating 6.2Decision
UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Kavanagh · 2026-02
L · KO · R2
Tatsuro TairaRating 4.5KO/TKO
UFC 323: Dvalishvili vs. Yan 2 · 2025-12
W · Dec · R5
Steve ErcegRating 5.1Decision
UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Erceg · 2025-03
W · Dec · R5
Amir AlbaziRating 5.8Decision
UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Albazi · 2024-11
L · Dec · R5
Brandon RoyvalRating 6.3Decision
UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Royval 2 · 2024-02