METRICS GUIDE
Every stat on this page, explained
All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.
UFC Fight Night: Lineker vs. Dodson
Portland, USA
1 Oct 2016
Flyweight
VS
34%
Smolka
66%
Moreno
Win Probability
Submission
Round 1 · 2:23
★ Official Result
Brandon MorenowinsSubmissionR1 · 2:23
def. Louis Smolka · UFC Fight Night: Lineker vs. Dodson
Fight Report
Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result
Prediction vs Result
We predicted
Moreno
→
Actual result
Moreno wins
Submission · R1
Pre-fight analysis
Moreno holds a meaningful edge at 66% per the CFR ratings — but Smolka has real paths to victory.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 26 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Risk flags
Smolka's chin rating of 12 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Moreno has a chin rating of 66 — a potential KO vulnerability.
This Fight — Statistics
Actual stats from this bout
SmolkaMoreno
0
Sig. Strikes
0
0.0
Strikes / min (SLpM)
0.0
—
Strike Accuracy
—
Smolka
Moreno
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'9"+
Height
5'7"
68"
Reach
+70"
35
Age
+32
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Smolka
Moreno
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
26.6
52.8
46.5
Performance Avg
52.5
46
Quality of Victory
47
60
Momentum Score
54
Smolka
Moreno
Striking
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
5.9
/ 10
3.0
/ 10
6.7
Style: Pressure
5.0
2.9
Style: Volume
4.9
4 KO wins
Finish Rate (strikes)
2 KO wins
Per-minute strike stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Strike targetStrike target
6
Head
7
1
Body
1
0
Leg
0
RangeRange
2Distance3
0Clinch1
5Ground4
Smolka
Moreno
Grappling
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
2.6
/ 10
3.3
/ 10
1.8
Wrestling Style (/10)
2.3
2.5
Submission Style (/10)
2.7
2
Submission wins
3
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Smolka
Moreno
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
12
66
2 consec. KOs
Verdict
Moderate
2
KO/TKO Losses
1
3
Sub Losses
0
Avg R2.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R2.0 stoppage
Most recent fight
Last KO loss
2 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
17/26 fights
Chin rating based on
21/33 fights
Smolka
Moreno
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
60
54
2-fight 📉 slide
Current form
2-fight 📉 slide
L · KO · R3
L · KO · R1
W · KO · R2
L · Sub · R1
W · KO · R1
Last 5
Upcoming
L · Dec · R5
L · KO · R2
W · Dec · R5
W · Dec · R5
Smolka
Moreno
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
75%
46%
4
KO / TKO Wins
2
2
Submission Wins
3
2
Decision Wins
6
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Smolka
Moreno
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
5.9
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
3.0
2.6
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
3.3
1.8
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
2.3
2.5
Submission
Submission attack frequency
2.7
6.7
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
5.0
2.9
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
4.9
SmolkaMoreno
Strike Zones
Smolka
Attacking
7 landedAbsorbing
8 absorbedMoreno
Attacking
8 landedAbsorbing
7 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Smolka targets the head (86% of attacks) — Moreno absorbs 86% of strikes there
🎯Moreno targets the head (88% of attacks) — Smolka absorbs 88% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Smolka
RND
Moreno
0/0R00/0
Smolka · Last 5
L · KO · R3
Davey GrantKO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Blachowicz vs. Rakic · 2022-05
L · KO · R1
Vince MoralesKO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Font vs. Aldo · 2021-12
W · KO · R2
Jose QuinonezKO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Hermansson vs. Vettori · 2020-12
L · Sub · R1
Casey KenneySubmission
UFC Fight Night: Woodley vs. Burns · 2020-05
W · KO · R1
Ryan MacDonaldKO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Cowboy vs. Gaethje · 2019-09
Moreno · Last 5
Upcoming
Joseph MoralesNoche UFC: Silva vs. Delgado · 2026-09
L · Dec · R5
Lone'er KavanaghDecision
UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Kavanagh · 2026-02
L · KO · R2
Tatsuro TairaKO/TKO
UFC 323: Dvalishvili vs. Yan 2 · 2025-12
W · Dec · R5
Steve ErcegDecision
UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Erceg · 2025-03
W · Dec · R5
Amir AlbaziDecision
UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Albazi · 2024-11