UFC 104: Machida vs Shogun
Los Angeles, USA
24 Oct 2009
Heavyweight
VS
49%
Velasquez
51%
Rothwell
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 2 · 0:58
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Rothwell
This is a genuine toss-up — Velasquez at 49% vs Rothwell at 51% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.
Key angles
Velasquez has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 15 points.
Velasquez has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.
Risk flags
Velasquez's chin rating of 44 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Rothwell has a chin rating of 34 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Velasquez
Rothwell
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'1"
Height
+6'4"
77"
Reach
+78"
43+
Age
44
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Velasquez
Rothwell
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
25.8
27.0
69.4
Performance Avg
49.7
62
Quality of Victory
48
100
Momentum Score
45
Velasquez
Rothwell
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
2.6
1.5
59%
Strike Accuracy
46%
9.9
Striking Style Score (/10)
5.5
10 KOs
KO Finishes
4 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
11
Head
0
0
Body
0
0
Leg
0
RangeRange
1Distance0
0Clinch0
10Ground0
Velasquez
Rothwell
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
0.4
/ 10
3.2
/ 10
0.3
Wrestling Style (/10)
2.2
0.0
Submission Style (/10)
3.3
0
Submission wins
3
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Velasquez
Rothwell
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
44
34
KO risk
Verdict
KO risk
2
KO/TKO Losses
2
1
Sub Losses
1
Avg R1.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.5 stoppage
Most recent fight
Last KO loss
Most recent fight
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
15/17 fights
Chin rating based on
17/53 fights
Velasquez
Rothwell
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
100
45
L · KO · R1
W · KO · R1
L · Sub · R3
W · KO · R5
W · KO · R1
Last 5
L · KO · R1
W · Sub · R2
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
W · KO · R2
Velasquez
Rothwell
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
83%
78%
10
KO / TKO Wins
4
0
Submission Wins
3
2
Decision Wins
2
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Velasquez
Rothwell
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
9.9
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
5.5
0.4
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
3.2
0.3
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
2.2
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
3.3
8.2
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
7.0
2.9
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
2.8
VelasquezRothwell
Strike Zones
Velasquez
Attacking
11 landedAbsorbing
0 absorbedRothwell
Attacking
0 landedAbsorbing
11 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Velasquez targets the head (100% of attacks) — Rothwell absorbs 100% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Velasquez
RND
Rothwell
0/0R00/0
Velasquez · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.4WinLossTrend
Rothwell · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.9WinLossTrend
Velasquez · Last 5
L · KO · R1
Francis NgannouRating 1.9KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Ngannou vs. Velasquez · 2019-02
W · KO · R1
Travis BrowneRating 5KO/TKO
UFC 200: Tate vs Nunes · 2016-07
L · Sub · R3
Fabricio WerdumRating 2.8Submission
UFC 188: Velasquez vs Werdum · 2015-06
W · KO · R5
Junior Dos SantosRating 5.5KO/TKO
UFC 166: Velasquez vs Dos Santos 3 · 2013-10
W · KO · R1
Antonio SilvaRating 5KO/TKO
UFC 160: Velasquez vs Silva 2 · 2013-05
Rothwell · Last 5
L · KO · R1
Marcos Rogerio de LimaRating 2.1KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Holloway vs. Rodriguez · 2021-11
W · Sub · R2
Chris BarnettRating 6.3Submission
UFC Fight Night: Font vs. Garbrandt · 2021-05
L · Dec · R3
Marcin TyburaRating 5.9Decision
UFC Fight Night: Moraes vs. Sandhagen · 2020-10
W · Dec · R3
Ovince Saint PreuxRating 5.1Decision
UFC Fight Night: Smith vs. Teixeira · 2020-05
W · KO · R2
Stefan StruveRating 5.2KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Overeem vs. Rozenstruik · 2019-12