METRICS GUIDE
Every stat on this page, explained
All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.
UFC 104: Machida vs Shogun
Los Angeles, USA
24 Oct 2009
Heavyweight
VS
49%
Velasquez
51%
Rothwell
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 2 · 0:58
★ Official Result
Cain VelasquezwinsKO/TKOR2 · 0:58
def. Ben Rothwell · UFC 104: Machida vs Shogun
Fight Report
Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result
Prediction vs Result
We predicted
Rothwell
→
Actual result
Velasquez wins
KO/TKO · R2
Pre-fight analysis
This is a genuine toss-up — Velasquez at 49% vs Rothwell at 51% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.
Key angles
Velasquez has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 15 points.
Risk flags
Velasquez's chin rating of 44 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Rothwell has a chin rating of 34 — a potential KO vulnerability.
This Fight — Statistics
Actual stats from this bout
VelasquezRothwell
0
Sig. Strikes
0
0.0
Strikes / min (SLpM)
0.0
—
Strike Accuracy
—
Velasquez
Rothwell
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'1"
Height
+6'4"
77"
Reach
+78"
44
Age
44
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Velasquez
Rothwell
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
25.8
27.0
69.4
Performance Avg
49.7
62
Quality of Victory
48
100
Momentum Score
45
Velasquez
Rothwell
Striking
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
9.9
/ 10
5.5
/ 10
8.2
Style: Pressure
7.0
2.9
Style: Volume
2.8
10 KO wins
Finish Rate (strikes)
4 KO wins
Per-minute strike stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Strike targetStrike target
11
Head
0
0
Body
0
0
Leg
0
RangeRange
1Distance0
0Clinch0
10Ground0
Velasquez
Rothwell
Grappling
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
0.4
/ 10
3.2
/ 10
0.3
Wrestling Style (/10)
2.2
0.0
Submission Style (/10)
3.3
0
Submission wins
3
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Velasquez
Rothwell
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
44
34
KO risk
Verdict
KO risk
2
KO/TKO Losses
2
1
Sub Losses
1
Avg R1.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.5 stoppage
Most recent fight
Last KO loss
Most recent fight
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
15/17 fights
Chin rating based on
17/53 fights
Velasquez
Rothwell
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
100
45
L · KO · R1
W · KO · R1
L · Sub · R3
W · KO · R5
W · KO · R1
Last 5
L · KO · R1
W · Sub · R2
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
W · KO · R2
Velasquez
Rothwell
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
83%
78%
10
KO / TKO Wins
4
0
Submission Wins
3
2
Decision Wins
2
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Velasquez
Rothwell
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
9.9
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
5.5
0.4
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
3.2
0.3
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
2.2
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
3.3
8.2
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
7.0
2.9
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
2.8
VelasquezRothwell
Strike Zones
Velasquez
Attacking
11 landedAbsorbing
0 absorbedRothwell
Attacking
0 landedAbsorbing
11 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Velasquez targets the head (100% of attacks) — Rothwell absorbs 100% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Velasquez
RND
Rothwell
0/0R00/0
Velasquez · Last 5
L · KO · R1
Francis NgannouKO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Ngannou vs. Velasquez · 2019-02
W · KO · R1
Travis BrowneKO/TKO
UFC 200: Tate vs Nunes · 2016-07
L · Sub · R3
Fabricio WerdumSubmission
UFC 188: Velasquez vs Werdum · 2015-06
W · KO · R5
Junior Dos SantosKO/TKO
UFC 166: Velasquez vs Dos Santos 3 · 2013-10
W · KO · R1
Antonio SilvaKO/TKO
UFC 160: Velasquez vs Silva 2 · 2013-05
Rothwell · Last 5
L · KO · R1
Marcos Rogerio de LimaKO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Holloway vs. Rodriguez · 2021-11
W · Sub · R2
Chris BarnettSubmission
UFC Fight Night: Font vs. Garbrandt · 2021-05
L · Dec · R3
Marcin TyburaDecision
UFC Fight Night: Moraes vs. Sandhagen · 2020-10
W · Dec · R3
Ovince Saint PreuxDecision
UFC Fight Night: Smith vs. Teixeira · 2020-05
W · KO · R2
Stefan StruveKO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Overeem vs. Rozenstruik · 2019-12