UFC 195: Lawler vs Condit
Las Vegas, USA
2 Jan 2016
Bantamweight
VS
50%
Soto
50%
Tanaka
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
JS
Joe Soto
"One Bad Mofo"
18 – 7
5'6"65" reachOrthodox39 yrs2-fight slideWell-Rounded
CFR 13
MT
Michinori Tanaka
11 – 3
Well-Rounded2-fight slide35 yrsOrthodox67" reach5'5"
CFR 13

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Soto

This is a genuine toss-up — Soto at 50% vs Tanaka at 50% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.

Key angles

Soto has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 16 points.

Soto has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.

Risk flags

Soto's chin rating of 20 flags durability concerns based on KO history.

Soto
Tanaka
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'6"+
Height
5'5"
65"
Reach
+67"
39
Age
+35
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Soto
Tanaka
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
12.7
12.6
39.8
Performance Avg
31.0
41
Quality of Victory
25
20
Momentum Score
45
Soto
Tanaka
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.2
0.9
53%
Strike Accuracy
32%
0.8
Striking Style Score (/10)
0.8
0 KOs
KO Finishes
0 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
46
Head
27
4
Body
2
3
Leg
0
RangeRange
53Distance27
0Clinch0
0Ground2
Soto
Tanaka
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
—
Sub Attempts / fight
0.4
6.1
Grappling Style Score (/10)
2.4
4.3
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
1.7
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Soto
Tanaka
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
20
94
2 consec. KOs
Verdict
Never stopped
3
KO/TKO Losses
0
1
Sub Losses
0
Avg R2.3 stoppage
KO round context
—
Most recent fight
Last KO loss
—
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
8/25 fights
Chin rating based on
5/14 fights
Soto
Tanaka
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
20
45
2-fight 📉 slide
Current form
2-fight 📉 slide
L · KO · R1
L · Sub · R1
W · Dec · R3
W · Sub · R1
W · Sub · R3
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
Soto
Tanaka
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
67%
0%
0
KO / TKO Wins
0
2
Submission Wins
0
1
Decision Wins
2

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Soto
Tanaka
Striking0.8 / 0.8Volume3.4 / 8.8Grappling6.1 / 2.4Wrestling4.3 / 1.7Submission6.7 / 0.0Pressure5.8 / 1.2
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
0.8
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
0.8
6.1
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
2.4
4.3
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.7
6.7
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
5.8
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
1.2
3.4
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
8.8
Soto
Strike Zones
Tanaka
Soto
Attacking
46HEAD4BODY3LEGS53 landed
Absorbing
27HEAD2BODY0LEGS29 absorbed
Tanaka
Attacking
27HEAD2BODY0LEGS29 landed
Absorbing
46HEAD4BODY3LEGS53 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Soto targets the head (87% of attacks) — Tanaka absorbs 87% of strikes there
🎯Tanaka targets the head (93% of attacks) — Soto absorbs 93% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Soto
RND
Tanaka
0/0R00/0

Soto · QOF Timeline

Avg: 3.7
0104.1L1.5L5.5L5.5W5.0W4.9W1.5L1.5L2014-082016-012016-112017-122018-02
WinLossTrend

Tanaka · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.4
0104.5W6.4L4.5W5.9L5.6L2014-062014-092016-012016-092017-02
WinLossTrend

Soto · Last 5

L · KO · R1
Iuri AlcantaraRating 1.5
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Machida vs. Anders · 2018-02
L · Sub · R1
Brett JohnsRating 1.5
Submission
The Ultimate Fighter: A New World Champion Finale · 2017-12
W · Dec · R3
Rani YahyaRating 4.9
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Belfort vs. Gastelum · 2017-03
W · Sub · R1
Marco BeltranRating 5
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Dos Anjos vs. Ferguson · 2016-11
W · Sub · R3
Chris BealRating 5.5
Submission
UFC Fight Night: MacDonald vs Thompson · 2016-06

Tanaka · Last 5

L · Dec · R3
Ricardo RamosRating 5.6
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Bermudez vs. The Korean Zombie · 2017-02
L · Dec · R3
Rani YahyaRating 5.9
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Cyborg vs. Lansberg · 2016-09
W · Dec · R3
Joe SotoRating 4.5
Decision
UFC 195: Lawler vs Condit · 2016-01
L · Dec · R3
Kyung Ho KangRating 6.4
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Hunt vs Nelson · 2014-09
W · Dec · R3
Roland DelormeRating 4.5
Decision
UFC 174: Johnson vs Bagautinov · 2014-06

News & Media

Joe Soto · Michinori Tanaka
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