UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Costa
Las Vegas, USA
16 May 2026
Flyweight
VS
48%
Barez
52%
Gurule
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
Daniel
Daniel Barez
17 – 8
5'6"66" reachOrthodox37 yrs2-fight slideWell-Rounded
CFR 26
Luis
Luis Gurule
"Grim"
11 – 3
Well-Rounded32 yrsOrthodox64" reach5'5"
CFR 28

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Gurule

This is a genuine toss-up — Barez at 48% vs Gurule at 52% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.

Key angles

Gurule has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.

Barez
Gurule
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'6"+
Height
5'5"
66"+
Reach
64"
37
Age
+32
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Barez
Gurule
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
25.5
27.7
25.0
Performance Avg
25.0
25
Quality of Victory
25
17
Momentum Score
28
Barez
Gurule
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
2.0
2.6
42%
Strike Accuracy
45%
0.5
Striking Style Score (/10)
0.5
0 KOs
KO Finishes
0 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
41
Head
63
8
Body
5
2
Leg
5
RangeRange
51Distance62
0Clinch11
0Ground0
Barez
Gurule
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
2.4
/ 10
2.4
/ 10
1.7
Wrestling Style (/10)
1.7
0.0
Submission Style (/10)
0.0
0
Submission wins
0
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Barez
Gurule
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
74
74
Never stopped
Verdict
Moderate
0
KO/TKO Losses
1
2
Sub Losses
0
—
KO round context
Avg R2.0 stoppage
—
Last KO loss
3 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
4/25 fights
Chin rating based on
4/14 fights
Barez
Gurule
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
17
28
2-fight 📉 slide
Current form
L · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R1
Last 5
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R2
Barez
Gurule
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
0%
0%
0
KO / TKO Wins
0
0
Submission Wins
0
1
Decision Wins
1

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Barez
Gurule
Striking0.5 / 0.5Volume8.5 / 8.5Grappling2.4 / 2.4Wrestling1.7 / 1.7Submission0.0 / 0.0Pressure0.8 / 0.8
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
0.5
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
0.5
2.4
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
2.4
1.7
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.7
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
0.8
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
0.8
8.5
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
8.5
Barez
Strike Zones
Gurule
Barez
Attacking
41HEAD8BODY2LEGS51 landed
Absorbing
63HEAD5BODY5LEGS73 absorbed
Gurule
Attacking
63HEAD5BODY5LEGS73 landed
Absorbing
41HEAD8BODY2LEGS51 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Barez targets the head (80% of attacks) — Gurule absorbs 80% of strikes there
🎯Gurule targets the head (86% of attacks) — Barez absorbs 86% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Barez
RND
Gurule
0/0R00/0

Barez · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.5
0102.6L4.6W5.5L5.5L2023-072024-092025-032026-05
WinLossTrend

Gurule · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.4
0103.6L6.4L7.2L4.5W2025-042025-092026-022026-05
WinLossTrend

Barez · Last 4

L · Dec · R3
Luis GuruleRating 5.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Costa · 2026-05
L · Sub · R3
Andre LimaRating 5.5
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Vettori vs. Dolidze 2 · 2025-03
W · Dec · R3
Victor AltamiranoRating 4.6
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Moicano vs. Saint Denis · 2024-09
L · Sub · R1
Jafel FilhoRating 2.6
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Aspinall vs. Tybura · 2023-07

Gurule · Last 4

W · Dec · R3
Daniel BarezRating 4.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Costa · 2026-05
L · Dec · R3
Alden CoriaRating 7.2
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Strickland vs. Hernandez · 2026-02
L · Dec · R3
Jesus AguilarRating 6.4
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Lopes vs. Silva · 2025-09
L · KO · R2
Ode OsbourneRating 3.6
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Emmett vs. Murphy · 2025-04

News & Media

Daniel Barez · Luis Gurule
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