UFC Fight Night: Grasso vs. Araujo
Las Vegas, USA
15 Oct 2022
Featherweight
VS
72%
Brito
28%
Alexander
Win Probability
Submission
Round 1 · 2:02
Joanderson
Joanderson Brito
"Tubarao"
18 – 5
5'8"72" reachOrthodox31 yrsWell-Rounded
CFR 66
Lucas
Lucas Alexander
"The Lion"
8 – 5
Well-Rounded2-fight slide30 yrsOrthodox73" reach5'11"
CFR 25

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Brito

Brito is a strong favourite at 72% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.

Key angles

The CFR gap of 41 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.

Brito has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 21 points.

Alexander has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.

Risk flags

Alexander has a chin rating of 44 — a potential KO vulnerability.

Brito
Alexander
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'8"
Height
+5'11"
72"
Reach
+73"
31
Age
+30
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Brito
Alexander
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
66.1
25.3
54.3
Performance Avg
25.0
46
Quality of Victory
25
98
Momentum Score
28
Brito
Alexander
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.1
2.4
54%
Strike Accuracy
59%
4.7
Striking Style Score (/10)
0.5
2 KOs
KO Finishes
0 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
2
Head
0
0
Body
0
2
Leg
1
RangeRange
0Distance1
4Clinch0
0Ground0
Brito
Alexander
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
3.1
/ 10
2.4
/ 10
2.1
Wrestling Style (/10)
1.7
3.3
Submission Style (/10)
0.0
2
Submission wins
0
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Brito
Alexander
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
94
44
Never stopped
Verdict
2 consec. KOs
0
KO/TKO Losses
2
0
Sub Losses
1
—
KO round context
Avg R1.5 stoppage
—
Last KO loss
Most recent fight
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
10/23 fights
Chin rating based on
4/13 fights
Brito
Alexander
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
98
28
Current form
2-fight 📉 slide
Upcoming
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · R2
Last 5
L · KO · R2
L · KO · R1
W · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R1
Brito
Alexander
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
67%
0%
2
KO / TKO Wins
0
2
Submission Wins
0
2
Decision Wins
1

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Brito
Alexander
Striking4.7 / 0.5Volume2.7 / 8.5Grappling3.1 / 2.4Wrestling2.1 / 1.7Submission3.3 / 0.0Pressure6.7 / 0.8
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
4.7
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
0.5
3.1
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
2.4
2.1
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.7
3.3
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
6.7
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
0.8
2.7
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
8.5
Brito
Strike Zones
Alexander
Brito
Attacking
2HEAD0BODY2LEGS4 landed
Absorbing
0HEAD0BODY1LEGS1 absorbed
Alexander
Attacking
0HEAD0BODY1LEGS1 landed
Absorbing
2HEAD0BODY2LEGS4 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Brito targets the head (50% of attacks) — Alexander absorbs 50% of strikes there
🎯Alexander targets the legs (100% of attacks) — Brito absorbs 100% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Brito
RND
Alexander
0/0R00/0

Brito · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.6
0105.7L5.7W5.0W5.5W5.7W5.0W6.5L6.5L4.5W2022-012023-072024-092025-12
WinLossTrend

Alexander · QOF Timeline

Avg: 3.4
0103.1L4.5W2.3L3.7L2022-102023-032023-112025-02
WinLossTrend

Brito · Last 5

Upcoming
Jordan Leavitt
UFC Fight Night: Muhammad vs. Bonfim · 2026-06
W · Dec · R3
Isaac ThomsonRating 4.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Royval vs. Kape · 2025-12
L · Dec · R3
Pat SabatiniRating 6.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Emmett vs. Murphy · 2025-04
L · Dec · R3
William GomisRating 6.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Moicano vs. Saint Denis · 2024-09
W · R2
Jack ShoreRating 5
UFC 301: Pantoja vs. Erceg · 2024-05

Alexander · Last 4

L · KO · R2
Bogdan GradRating 3.7
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Adesanya vs. Imavov · 2025-02
L · KO · R1
Jeka SaragihRating 2.3
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Craig · 2023-11
W · Dec · R3
Steven PetersonRating 4.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Vera vs. Sandhagen · 2023-03
L · Sub · R1
Joanderson BritoRating 3.1
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Grasso vs. Araujo · 2022-10

News & Media

Joanderson Brito · Lucas Alexander
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