UFC Fight Night: Holm vs. Bueno Silva
Las Vegas, USA
15 Jul 2023
Featherweight
VS
28%
Lingo
72%
Costa
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Costa
Costa is a strong favourite at 72% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 36 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Costa has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 17 points.
Costa has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.
Risk flags
Costa has a chin rating of 64 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Lingo
Costa
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'10"
Height
5'10"
70"
Reach
+71"
31
Age
+29
Orthodox
Stance
Southpaw
Lingo
Costa
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
23.5
59.4
31.0
Performance Avg
53.2
25
Quality of Victory
42
25
Momentum Score
84
Lingo
Costa
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.1
1.4
36%
Strike Accuracy
47%
0.8
Striking Style Score (/10)
4.3
0 KOs
KO Finishes
2 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
6
Head
8
2
Body
10
0
Leg
2
RangeRange
8Distance15
0Clinch4
0Ground1
Lingo
Costa
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
—
Sub Attempts / fight
0.1
2.4
Grappling Style Score (/10)
3.3
1.7
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
2.3
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Lingo
Costa
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
84
64
Never stopped
Verdict
Moderate
0
KO/TKO Losses
1
1
Sub Losses
1
—
KO round context
Avg R2.0 stoppage
—
Last KO loss
7 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
5/12 fights
Chin rating based on
10/34 fights
Lingo
Costa
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
25
84
2-fight 📉 slide
Current form
L · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R2
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · Dec · R5
W · KO · R1
W · KO · R1
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
Lingo
Costa
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
0%
57%
0
KO / TKO Wins
2
0
Submission Wins
2
2
Decision Wins
3
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Lingo
Costa
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
0.8
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
4.3
2.4
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
3.3
1.7
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
2.3
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
2.9
1.2
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
6.1
8.8
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
4.8
LingoCosta
Strike Zones
Lingo
Attacking
8 landedAbsorbing
20 absorbedCosta
Attacking
20 landedAbsorbing
8 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Lingo targets the head (75% of attacks) — Costa absorbs 75% of strikes there
🎯Costa targets the body (50% of attacks) — Lingo absorbs 50% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Lingo
RND
Costa
0/0R00/0
Lingo · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.1WinLossTrend
Costa · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.2WinLossTrend
Lingo · Last 5
L · Dec · R3
Melquizael CostaRating 6.7Decision
UFC Fight Night: Holm vs. Bueno Silva · 2023-07
L · Sub · R2
Nate LandwehrRating 3.5Submission
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W · Dec · R3
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UFC 247: Jones vs. Reyes · 2020-02
Costa · Last 5
L · Dec · R5
Arnold AllenRating 6.9Decision
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W · KO · R1
Dan IgeRating 5.7KO/TKO
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Morgan CharriereRating 6.2KO/TKO
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