UFC 110: Nogueira vs Velasquez
Sydney, Australia
20 Feb 2010
Lightweight
VS
48%
Sotiropoulos
52%
Stevenson
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Stevenson
This is a genuine toss-up — Sotiropoulos at 48% vs Stevenson at 52% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.
Key angles
Striking split: Sotiropoulos throws more volume but Stevenson connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.
Risk flags
Sotiropoulos's chin rating of 52 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Stevenson has a chin rating of 44 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Sotiropoulos
Stevenson
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'10"+
Height
5'7"
71"+
Reach
70"
48
Age
+43
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Sotiropoulos
Stevenson
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
18.3
19.6
51.8
Performance Avg
49.2
44
Quality of Victory
49
51
Momentum Score
86
Sotiropoulos
Stevenson
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.0
1.0
28%
Strike Accuracy
45%
2.7
Striking Style Score (/10)
2.3
1 KOs
KO Finishes
1 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
6
Head
1
0
Body
0
0
Leg
1
RangeRange
5Distance2
1Clinch0
0Ground0
Sotiropoulos
Stevenson
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
—
Sub Attempts / fight
0.1
5.3
Grappling Style Score (/10)
3.9
3.7
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
2.7
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Sotiropoulos
Stevenson
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
52
44
2 consec. KOs
Verdict
KO risk
2
KO/TKO Losses
1
0
Sub Losses
2
Avg R2.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.0 stoppage
1 fight ago
Last KO loss
2 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
11/21 fights
Chin rating based on
16/49 fights
Sotiropoulos
Stevenson
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
51
86
4-fight 📉 slide
Current form
4-fight 📉 slide
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R3
L · KO · R1
L · Dec · R3
W · Sub · R2
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R1
L · Dec · R3
W · KO · R2
Sotiropoulos
Stevenson
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
71%
50%
1
KO / TKO Wins
1
4
Submission Wins
3
2
Decision Wins
4
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Sotiropoulos
Stevenson
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
2.7
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
2.3
5.3
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
3.9
3.7
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
2.7
5.7
Submission
Submission attack frequency
3.8
6.9
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
5.0
3.6
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
4.0
SotiropoulosStevenson
Strike Zones
Sotiropoulos
Attacking
6 landedAbsorbing
2 absorbedStevenson
Attacking
2 landedAbsorbing
6 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Sotiropoulos targets the head (100% of attacks) — Stevenson absorbs 100% of strikes there
🎯Stevenson targets the head (50% of attacks) — Sotiropoulos absorbs 50% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Sotiropoulos
RND
Stevenson
0/0R00/0
Sotiropoulos · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.6WinLossTrend
Stevenson · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.4WinLossTrend
Sotiropoulos · Last 5
L · Dec · R3
KJ NoonsRating 5.5Decision
UFC 166: Velasquez vs Dos Santos 3 · 2013-10
L · KO · R3
Ross PearsonRating 2.8KO/TKO
UFC on FX: Sotiropoulos vs Pearson · 2012-12
L · KO · R1
Rafael Dos AnjosRating 1.7KO/TKO
UFC 132: Cruz vs Faber · 2011-07
L · Dec · R3
Dennis SiverRating 5.5Decision
UFC 127: Penn vs Fitch · 2011-02
W · Sub · R2
Joe LauzonRating 5.2Submission
UFC 123: Rampage vs Machida · 2010-11
Stevenson · Last 5
L · Dec · R3
Javier VazquezRating 5.5Decision
UFC Live: Kongo vs Barry · 2011-06
L · Dec · R3
Danny CastilloRating 5.5Decision
UFC Live: Sanchez vs Kampmann · 2011-03
L · KO · R1
Mac DanzigRating 1.5KO/TKO
UFC 124: St-Pierre vs Koscheck 2 · 2010-12
L · Dec · R3
George SotiropoulosRating 5.5Decision
UFC 110: Nogueira vs Velasquez · 2010-02
W · KO · R2
Spencer FisherRating 5.2KO/TKO
UFC 104: Machida vs Shogun · 2009-10