UFC Fight Night: Shields vs Ellenberger
New Orleans, USA
17 Sept 2011
Featherweight
VS
53%
Brookins
47%
Koch
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
JB
Jonathan Brookins
16 – 10
6'0"74" reachSouthpaw40 yrs2-fight slideWell-Rounded
CFR 22
EK
Erik Koch
"Phoenix"
16 – 6
Well-Rounded37 yrsSouthpaw71" reach5'10"
CFR 19

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Brookins

This is a genuine toss-up — Brookins at 53% vs Koch at 47% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.

Key angles

Brookins has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 36 points.

Brookins has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.

Risk flags

Koch has a chin rating of 50 — a potential KO vulnerability.

Brookins
Koch
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'0"+
Height
5'10"
74"+
Reach
71"
40
Age
+37
Southpaw
Stance
Southpaw
Brookins
Koch
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
21.5
19.2
64.0
Performance Avg
46.3
80
Quality of Victory
44
45
Momentum Score
84
Brookins
Koch
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.6
0.9
44%
Strike Accuracy
42%
5.8
Striking Style Score (/10)
5.0
1 KOs
KO Finishes
2 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
4
Head
8
2
Body
0
0
Leg
3
RangeRange
1Distance9
5Clinch2
0Ground0
Brookins
Koch
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
—
Sub Attempts / fight
0.1
1.2
Grappling Style Score (/10)
2.6
0.8
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
1.8
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Brookins
Koch
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
74
50
Never stopped
Verdict
KO risk
0
KO/TKO Losses
2
2
Sub Losses
0
—
KO round context
Avg R1.5 stoppage
—
Last KO loss
4 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
5/26 fights
Chin rating based on
10/22 fights
Brookins
Koch
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
45
84
2-fight 📉 slide
Current form
L · Sub · R1
L · Sub · R2
W · KO · R1
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
Last 5
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · Sub · R2
L · KO · R1
Brookins
Koch
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
50%
60%
1
KO / TKO Wins
2
0
Submission Wins
1
1
Decision Wins
2

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Brookins
Koch
Striking5.8 / 5.0Volume4.8 / 4.2Grappling1.2 / 2.6Wrestling0.8 / 1.8Submission0.0 / 2.0Pressure4.7 / 5.7
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
5.8
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
5.0
1.2
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
2.6
0.8
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.8
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
2.0
4.7
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
5.7
4.8
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
4.2
Brookins
Strike Zones
Koch
Brookins
Attacking
4HEAD2BODY0LEGS6 landed
Absorbing
8HEAD0BODY3LEGS11 absorbed
Koch
Attacking
8HEAD0BODY3LEGS11 landed
Absorbing
4HEAD2BODY0LEGS6 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Brookins targets the head (67% of attacks) — Koch absorbs 67% of strikes there
🎯Koch targets the head (73% of attacks) — Brookins absorbs 73% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Brookins
RND
Koch
0/0R00/0

Brookins · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.4
0104.6W5.5L5.0W4.2L2.8L2010-122011-092012-022012-062012-12
WinLossTrend

Koch · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.8
0105.0W4.5W2.8L6.8L5.0W1.5L5.2W6.0L6.2L4.5W2011-032013-082016-052019-07
WinLossTrend

Brookins · Last 5

L · Sub · R1
Dustin PoirierRating 2.8
Submission
The Ultimate Fighter: Team Carwin vs. Team Nelson Finale · 2012-12
L · Sub · R2
Charles OliveiraRating 4.2
Submission
The Ultimate Fighter: Live Finale · 2012-06
W · KO · R1
Vagner RochaRating 5
KO/TKO
UFC on FUEL TV: Sanchez vs Ellenberger · 2012-02
L · Dec · R3
Erik KochRating 5.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Shields vs Ellenberger · 2011-09
W · Dec · R3
Michael JohnsonRating 4.6
Decision
The Ultimate Fighter: Team GSP vs Team Koscheck Finale · 2010-12

Koch · Last 5

W · Dec · R3
Kyle StewartRating 4.5
Decision
UFC 240: Holloway vs. Edgar · 2019-07
L · Dec · R3
King GreenRating 6.2
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Jacare vs. Brunson 2 · 2018-01
L · Dec · R3
Clay GuidaRating 6
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Chiesa vs. Lee · 2017-06
W · Sub · R2
Shane CampbellRating 5.2
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Almeida vs Garbrandt · 2016-05
L · KO · R1
Daron CruickshankRating 1.5
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Brown vs Silva · 2014-05

News & Media

Jonathan Brookins · Erik Koch
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