UFC 157: Rousey vs Carmouche
Anaheim, USA
23 Feb 2013
Welterweight
VS
29%
Koscheck
71%
Lawler
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 1 · 3:57
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Lawler
Lawler is a strong favourite at 71% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 24 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Lawler has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.
Risk flags
Koscheck's chin rating of 0 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Lawler has a chin rating of 0 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Koscheck
Lawler
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'10"
Height
+5'11"
73"
Reach
+74"
48
Age
+44
Orthodox
Stance
Southpaw
Koscheck
Lawler
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
16.9
40.7
50.5
Performance Avg
51.0
44
Quality of Victory
45
59
Momentum Score
90
Koscheck
Lawler
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
0.9
1.3
39%
Strike Accuracy
50%
5.2
Striking Style Score (/10)
6.5
6 KOs
KO Finishes
8 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
1
Head
7
1
Body
2
0
Leg
0
RangeRange
0Distance0
0Clinch2
2Ground7
Koscheck
Lawler
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
—
Sub Attempts / fight
0.1
2.6
Grappling Style Score (/10)
1.1
1.8
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
0.8
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Koscheck
Lawler
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
0
0
2 consec. KOs
Verdict
KO risk
3
KO/TKO Losses
3
3
Sub Losses
3
Avg R1.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.7 stoppage
2 fights ago
Last KO loss
1 fight ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
25/28 fights
Chin rating based on
25/46 fights
Koscheck
Lawler
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
59
90
5-fight 📉 slide
Current form
L · Sub · R1
L · Sub · R2
L · KO · R1
L · KO · R1
L · Dec · R3
Last 5
W · KO · R1
L · KO · R2
W · KO · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R5
Koscheck
Lawler
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
60%
53%
6
KO / TKO Wins
8
3
Submission Wins
0
6
Decision Wins
7
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Koscheck
Lawler
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
5.2
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
6.5
2.6
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
1.1
1.8
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.8
2.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
6.0
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
5.5
4.4
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
4.9
KoscheckLawler
Strike Zones
Koscheck
Attacking
2 landedAbsorbing
9 absorbedLawler
Attacking
9 landedAbsorbing
2 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Koscheck targets the head (50% of attacks) — Lawler absorbs 50% of strikes there
🎯Lawler targets the head (78% of attacks) — Koscheck absorbs 78% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Koscheck
RND
Lawler
0/0R00/0
Koscheck · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.3WinLossTrend
Lawler · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.5WinLossTrend
Koscheck · Last 5
L · Sub · R1
Erick SilvaRating 1.5Submission
UFC Fight Night: Maia vs LaFlare · 2015-03
L · Sub · R2
Jake EllenbergerRating 2.8Submission
UFC 184: Rousey vs Zingano · 2015-02
L · KO · R1
Tyron WoodleyRating 1.5KO/TKO
UFC 167: St-Pierre vs Hendricks · 2013-11
L · KO · R1
Robbie LawlerRating 1.8KO/TKO
UFC 157: Rousey vs Carmouche · 2013-02
L · Dec · R3
Johny HendricksRating 5.5Decision
UFC on FOX: Diaz vs Miller · 2012-05
Lawler · Last 5
W · KO · R1
Niko PriceRating 5.7KO/TKO
UFC 290: Volkanovski vs. Rodriguez · 2023-07
L · KO · R2
Bryan BarberenaRating 3.2KO/TKO
UFC 276: Adesanya vs. Cannonier · 2022-07
W · KO · R3
Nick DiazRating 5.2KO/TKO
UFC 266: Volkanovski vs. Ortega · 2021-09
L · Dec · R3
Neil MagnyRating 6.1Decision
UFC Fight Night: Smith vs. Rakic · 2020-08
L · Dec · R5
Colby CovingtonRating 6.8Decision
UFC Fight Night: Covington vs. Lawler · 2019-08