UFC 230: Cormier vs. Lewis
New York City, USA
3 Nov 2018
Middleweight
VS
18%
Branch
82%
Cannonier
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 2 · 0:39
DB
David Branch
22 – 6
6'1"78" reachOrthodox44 yrs2-fight slideWell-Rounded
CFR 12
Jared
Jared Cannonier
"The Killa Gorilla"
18 – 9
Striker42 yrsSwitch77" reach5'11"
CFR 54

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Cannonier

Cannonier is a strong favourite at 82% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.

Key angles

The CFR gap of 42 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.

Cannonier has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 12 points.

Cannonier has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.

Risk flags

Branch's chin rating of 10 flags durability concerns based on KO history.

Cannonier has a chin rating of 22 — a potential KO vulnerability.

Branch
Cannonier
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'1"+
Height
5'11"
78"+
Reach
77"
44
Age
+42
Orthodox
Stance
Switch
Branch
Cannonier
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
11.9
54.3
38.0
Performance Avg
49.3
34
Quality of Victory
46
36
Momentum Score
82
Branch
Cannonier
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
0.5
1.3
38%
Strike Accuracy
56%
3.4
Striking Style Score (/10)
7.5
1 KOs
KO Finishes
7 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
1
Head
12
0
Body
0
0
Leg
1
RangeRange
0Distance3
1Clinch0
0Ground10
Branch
Cannonier
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
1.8
/ 10
0.9
/ 10
1.3
Wrestling Style (/10)
0.6
0.0
Submission Style (/10)
0.0
0
Submission wins
0
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Branch
Cannonier
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
10
22
KO risk
Verdict
KO risk
3
KO/TKO Losses
3
2
Sub Losses
0
Avg R2.3 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R2.0 stoppage
1 fight ago
Last KO loss
3 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
9/28 fights
Chin rating based on
20/27 fights
Branch
Cannonier
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
36
82
2-fight 📉 slide
Current form
L · Sub · R1
L · KO · R2
W · KO · R1
L · KO · R2
W · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
W · KO · R4
L · Dec · R5
L · KO · R4
W · Dec · R5
Branch
Cannonier
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
25%
64%
1
KO / TKO Wins
7
0
Submission Wins
0
3
Decision Wins
4

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Branch
Cannonier
Striking3.4 / 7.5Volume6.9 / 4.0Grappling1.8 / 0.9Wrestling1.3 / 0.6Submission0.0 / 0.0Pressure3.1 / 6.1
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
3.4
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
7.5
1.8
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
0.9
1.3
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.6
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
3.1
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
6.1
6.9
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
4.0
Branch
Strike Zones
Cannonier
Branch
Attacking
1HEAD0BODY0LEGS1 landed
Absorbing
12HEAD0BODY1LEGS13 absorbed
Cannonier
Attacking
12HEAD0BODY1LEGS13 landed
Absorbing
1HEAD0BODY0LEGS1 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Branch targets the head (100% of attacks) — Cannonier absorbs 100% of strikes there
🎯Cannonier targets the head (92% of attacks) — Branch absorbs 92% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Branch
RND
Cannonier
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0

Branch · QOF Timeline

Avg: 3.7
0104.0L4.5W4.5W2.8L4.5W2.1L5.0W3.7L2.4L2010-072011-032018-042019-03
WinLossTrend

Cannonier · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.4
0101.5L5.0W4.8W5.9L5.5W6.1L2.5L5.2W5.0W6.1W6.4L4.8W5.5W6.9L5.6W5.3W4.8L6.9L7.0W6.3L2015-012017-122020-102023-062025-08
WinLossTrend

Branch · Last 5

L · Sub · R1
Jack HermanssonRating 2.4
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Barboza vs. Gaethje · 2019-03
L · KO · R2
Jared CannonierRating 3.7
KO/TKO
UFC 230: Cormier vs. Lewis · 2018-11
W · KO · R1
Thiago SantosRating 5
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Barboza vs. Lee · 2018-04
L · KO · R2
Luke RockholdRating 2.1
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Rockhold vs. Branch · 2017-09
W · Dec · R3
Krzysztof JotkoRating 4.5
Decision
UFC 211: Miocic vs. Dos Santos · 2017-05

Cannonier · Last 5

L · Dec · R3
Michael PageRating 6.3
Decision
UFC 319: Du Plessis vs. Chimaev · 2025-08
W · KO · R4
Gregory RodriguesRating 7
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Cannonier vs. Rodrigues · 2025-02
L · Dec · R5
Caio BorralhoRating 6.9
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Cannonier vs. Borralho · 2024-08
L · KO · R4
Nassourdine ImavovRating 4.8
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Cannonier vs. Imavov · 2024-06
W · Dec · R5
Marvin VettoriRating 5.3
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Vettori vs. Cannonier · 2023-06

News & Media

David Branch · Jared Cannonier
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