UFC Fight Night: Hunt vs Nelson
Saitama, Japan
20 Sept 2014
Bantamweight
VS
78%
Caceres
22%
Kanehara
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
Alex
Alex Caceres
"Bruce Leeroy"
21 – 15
5'10"73" reachSouthpaw37 yrs2-fight slideWell-Rounded
CFR 40
MK
Masanori Kanehara
26 – 12
Well-Rounded2-fight slide43 yrsOrthodox67" reach5'7"
CFR 12

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Caceres

Caceres is a strong favourite at 78% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.

Key angles

The CFR gap of 28 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.

Striking split: Caceres throws more volume but Kanehara connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.

Risk flags

Caceres's chin rating of 4 flags durability concerns based on KO history.

Caceres
Kanehara
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'10"+
Height
5'7"
73"+
Reach
67"
37+
Age
43
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
Caceres
Kanehara
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
39.7
11.5
42.2
Performance Avg
28.3
34
Quality of Victory
25
76
Momentum Score
40
Caceres
Kanehara
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.7
0.9
50%
Strike Accuracy
51%
1.7
Striking Style Score (/10)
0.7
1 KOs
KO Finishes
0 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
9
Head
10
2
Body
0
2
Leg
2
RangeRange
11Distance12
2Clinch0
0Ground0
Caceres
Kanehara
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.1
Sub Attempts / fight
—
3.5
Grappling Style Score (/10)
2.4
2.5
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
1.7
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Caceres
Kanehara
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
4
86
KO risk
Verdict
Never stopped
1
KO/TKO Losses
0
5
Sub Losses
1
Avg R1.0 stoppage
KO round context
—
18 fights ago
Last KO loss
—
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
30/36 fights
Chin rating based on
3/38 fights
Caceres
Kanehara
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
76
40
2-fight 📉 slide
Current form
2-fight 📉 slide
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
W · KO · R1
L · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · Sub · R2
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
Caceres
Kanehara
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
31%
0%
1
KO / TKO Wins
0
4
Submission Wins
0
11
Decision Wins
1

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Caceres
Kanehara
Striking1.7 / 0.7Volume6.1 / 8.7Grappling3.5 / 2.4Wrestling2.5 / 1.7Submission2.5 / 0.0Pressure3.8 / 1.0
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
1.7
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
0.7
3.5
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
2.4
2.5
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.7
2.5
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
3.8
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
1.0
6.1
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
8.7
Caceres
Strike Zones
Kanehara
Caceres
Attacking
9HEAD2BODY2LEGS13 landed
Absorbing
10HEAD0BODY2LEGS12 absorbed
Kanehara
Attacking
10HEAD0BODY2LEGS12 landed
Absorbing
9HEAD2BODY2LEGS13 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Caceres targets the head (69% of attacks) — Kanehara absorbs 69% of strikes there
🎯Kanehara targets the head (83% of attacks) — Caceres absorbs 83% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Caceres
RND
Kanehara
0/0R00/0

Caceres · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.7
0101.5L2.8L4.5W5.5L5.2W4.5W4.5W5.5W4.0L5.5L1.5L4.5W4.5W7.1L2.8L4.2W5.5L4.5W2.3L4.5W5.3W5.0W4.5W5.4W6.3L5.2W5.4W6.5L6.6L2011-032014-072017-112022-032024-05
WinLossTrend

Kanehara · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.5
0104.7W5.9L2.8L2014-092015-072016-01
WinLossTrend

Caceres · Last 5

L · Dec · R3
Sean WoodsonRating 6.6
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Nascimento · 2024-05
L · Dec · R3
Giga ChikadzeRating 6.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Holloway vs. The Korean Zombie · 2023-08
W · Dec · R3
Daniel PinedaRating 5.4
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Kara-France vs. Albazi · 2023-06
W · KO · R1
Julian ErosaRating 5.2
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Cannonier vs. Strickland · 2022-12
L · Dec · R3
Sodiq YusuffRating 6.3
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Santos vs. Ankalaev · 2022-03

Kanehara · Last 3

L · Sub · R2
Michael McDonaldRating 2.8
Submission
UFC 195: Lawler vs Condit · 2016-01
L · Dec · R3
Rani YahyaRating 5.9
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Mir vs Duffee · 2015-07
W · Dec · R3
Alex CaceresRating 4.7
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Hunt vs Nelson · 2014-09

News & Media

Alex Caceres · Masanori Kanehara
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