UFC Fight Night: Santos vs. Hill
Las Vegas, USA
6 Aug 2022
Lightweight
VS
96%
McKinney
4%
Gonzalez
Win Probability
Submission
Round 1 · 2:17
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: McKinney
McKinney is a strong favourite at 96% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 63 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
McKinney has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 58 points.
McKinney has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.
Risk flags
McKinney's chin rating of 10 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Gonzalez has a chin rating of 44 — a potential KO vulnerability.
McKinney
Gonzalez
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'10"
Height
+5'11"
73"
Reach
+75"
31+
Age
34
Switch
Stance
Orthodox
McKinney
Gonzalez
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
65.7
2.6
59.3
Performance Avg
0.0
58
Quality of Victory
0
98
Momentum Score
0
McKinney
Gonzalez
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
5.1
1.4
56%
Strike Accuracy
35%
7.5
Striking Style Score (/10)
0.0
5 KOs
KO Finishes
0 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
15
Head
6
3
Body
1
0
Leg
2
RangeRange
14Distance9
3Clinch0
1Ground0
McKinney
Gonzalez
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.3
Sub Attempts / fight
—
3.0
Grappling Style Score (/10)
0.0
2.1
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
0.0
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
McKinney
Gonzalez
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
10
44
KO risk
Verdict
KO risk
3
KO/TKO Losses
2
2
Sub Losses
1
Avg R1.3 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.5 stoppage
4 fights ago
Last KO loss
Most recent fight
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
13/26 fights
Chin rating based on
3/22 fights
McKinney
Gonzalez
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
98
0
Current form
3-fight 📉 slide
W · KO · R1
L · Sub · R1
W · Sub · R1
W · KO · R1
L · KO · R1
Last 5
L · KO · R1
L · Sub · R1
L · KO · R2
McKinney
Gonzalez
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
100%
0%
5
KO / TKO Wins
0
3
Submission Wins
0
0
Decision Wins
0
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
McKinney
Gonzalez
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
7.5
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
0.0
3.0
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
0.0
2.1
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.0
3.8
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
8.8
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
0.0
1.2
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
0.0
McKinneyGonzalez
Strike Zones
McKinney
Attacking
18 landedAbsorbing
9 absorbedGonzalez
Attacking
9 landedAbsorbing
18 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯McKinney targets the head (83% of attacks) — Gonzalez absorbs 83% of strikes there
🎯Gonzalez targets the head (67% of attacks) — McKinney absorbs 67% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
McKinney
RND
Gonzalez
0/0R00/0
McKinney · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.4WinLossTrend
Gonzalez · QOF Timeline
Avg: 2.7WinLossTrend
McKinney · Last 5
W · KO · R1
Kyle NelsonRating 5.1KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Adesanya vs. Pyfer · 2026-03
L · Sub · R1
Chris DuncanRating 2.8Submission
UFC 323: Dvalishvili vs. Yan 2 · 2025-12
W · Sub · R1
Viacheslav BorshchevRating 5.5Submission
UFC 317: Topuria vs. Oliveira · 2025-06
W · KO · R1
Damir HadzovicRating 5KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Adesanya vs. Imavov · 2025-02
L · KO · R1
Esteban RibovicsRating 2.2KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Nascimento · 2024-05
Gonzalez · Last 3
L · KO · R1
Trevor PeekRating 1.8KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Muniz vs. Allen · 2023-02
L · Sub · R1
Terrance McKinneyRating 3Submission
UFC Fight Night: Santos vs. Hill · 2022-08
L · KO · R2
Jim MillerRating 3.2KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Ladd vs. Dumont · 2021-10