UFC 116: Lesnar vs Carwin
Las Vegas, USA
3 Jul 2010
Lightweight
VS
50%
Sotiropoulos
50%
Pellegrino
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Sotiropoulos
This is a genuine toss-up — Sotiropoulos at 50% vs Pellegrino at 50% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.
Key angles
Striking split: Sotiropoulos throws more volume but Pellegrino connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.
Risk flags
Sotiropoulos's chin rating of 52 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Sotiropoulos
Pellegrino
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'10"+
Height
5'8"
71"+
Reach
70"
48
Age
+47
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Sotiropoulos
Pellegrino
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
18.3
18.2
51.8
Performance Avg
50.1
44
Quality of Victory
45
51
Momentum Score
48
Sotiropoulos
Pellegrino
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.0
0.7
28%
Strike Accuracy
42%
2.7
Striking Style Score (/10)
2.6
1 KOs
KO Finishes
1 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
16
Head
16
0
Body
1
0
Leg
0
RangeRange
14Distance9
0Clinch5
2Ground3
Sotiropoulos
Pellegrino
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
—
Sub Attempts / fight
0.2
5.3
Grappling Style Score (/10)
5.3
3.7
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
3.7
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Sotiropoulos
Pellegrino
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
52
70
2 consec. KOs
Verdict
Never stopped
2
KO/TKO Losses
0
0
Sub Losses
2
Avg R2.0 stoppage
KO round context
—
1 fight ago
Last KO loss
—
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
11/21 fights
Chin rating based on
12/23 fights
Sotiropoulos
Pellegrino
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
51
48
4-fight 📉 slide
Current form
2-fight 📉 slide
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R3
L · KO · R1
L · Dec · R3
W · Sub · R2
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · Sub · R2
W · Dec · R3
W · Sub · R2
Sotiropoulos
Pellegrino
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
71%
71%
1
KO / TKO Wins
1
4
Submission Wins
4
2
Decision Wins
2
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Sotiropoulos
Pellegrino
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
2.7
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
2.6
5.3
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
5.3
3.7
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
3.7
5.7
Submission
Submission attack frequency
5.7
6.9
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
6.8
3.6
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
3.5
SotiropoulosPellegrino
Strike Zones
Sotiropoulos
Attacking
16 landedAbsorbing
17 absorbedPellegrino
Attacking
17 landedAbsorbing
16 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Sotiropoulos targets the head (100% of attacks) — Pellegrino absorbs 100% of strikes there
🎯Pellegrino targets the head (94% of attacks) — Sotiropoulos absorbs 94% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Sotiropoulos
RND
Pellegrino
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0
Sotiropoulos · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.6WinLossTrend
Pellegrino · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.8WinLossTrend
Sotiropoulos · Last 5
L · Dec · R3
KJ NoonsRating 5.5Decision
UFC 166: Velasquez vs Dos Santos 3 · 2013-10
L · KO · R3
Ross PearsonRating 2.8KO/TKO
UFC on FX: Sotiropoulos vs Pearson · 2012-12
L · KO · R1
Rafael Dos AnjosRating 1.7KO/TKO
UFC 132: Cruz vs Faber · 2011-07
L · Dec · R3
Dennis SiverRating 5.5Decision
UFC 127: Penn vs Fitch · 2011-02
W · Sub · R2
Joe LauzonRating 5.2Submission
UFC 123: Rampage vs Machida · 2010-11
Pellegrino · Last 5
L · Dec · R3
Gleison TibauRating 5.5Decision
UFC 128: Shogun vs Jones · 2011-03
L · Dec · R3
George SotiropoulosRating 5.5Decision
UFC 116: Lesnar vs Carwin · 2010-07
W · Sub · R2
Fabricio CamoesRating 5.2Submission
UFC 111: St-Pierre vs Hardy · 2010-03
W · Dec · R3
Josh NeerRating 4.5Decision
UFC 101: Declaration · 2009-08
W · Sub · R2
Rob EmersonRating 5.2Submission
UFC Fight Night: Lauzon vs Stephens · 2009-02