UFC Fight Night: Barboza vs. Murphy
Las Vegas, USA
18 May 2024
Lightweight
VS
6%
Martinez
94%
Nolan
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 1 · 3:50
Victor
Victor Martinez
"The Brick"
13 – 6
5'8"70" reachOrthodox34 yrs2-fight slideWell-Rounded
CFR 4
Tom
Tom Nolan
"Big Train"
10 – 1
Well-Rounded4-fight win streak26 yrsSouthpaw73" reach6'3"
CFR 65

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Nolan

Nolan is a strong favourite at 94% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.

Key angles

The CFR gap of 61 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.

Nolan has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 41 points.

Striking split: Martinez throws more volume but Nolan connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.

Risk flags

Martinez's chin rating of 56 flags durability concerns based on KO history.

Martinez
Nolan
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'8"
Height
+6'3"
70"
Reach
+73"
34
Age
+26
Orthodox
Stance
Southpaw
Martinez
Nolan
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
4.0
65.0
0.0
Performance Avg
56.6
0
Quality of Victory
41
0
Momentum Score
100
Martinez
Nolan
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
5.0
2.2
46%
Strike Accuracy
48%
0.0
Striking Style Score (/10)
4.1
0 KOs
KO Finishes
1 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
6
Head
14
7
Body
13
5
Leg
6
RangeRange
16Distance29
1Clinch0
1Ground4
Martinez
Nolan
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
0.0
/ 10
3.2
/ 10
0.0
Wrestling Style (/10)
2.2
0.0
Submission Style (/10)
2.5
0
Submission wins
1
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Martinez
Nolan
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
56
78
2 consec. KOs
Verdict
Moderate
2
KO/TKO Losses
1
0
Sub Losses
0
Avg R1.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.0 stoppage
Most recent fight
Last KO loss
5 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
2/19 fights
Chin rating based on
6/11 fights
Martinez
Nolan
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
0
100
2-fight 📉 slide
Current form
4-fight 🔥 win streak
L · KO · R1
L · KO · R1
Last 5
Upcoming
W · Sub · R1
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
W · KO · R1
Martinez
Nolan
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
0%
50%
0
KO / TKO Wins
1
0
Submission Wins
1
0
Decision Wins
2

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Martinez
Nolan
Striking0.0 / 4.1Volume0.0 / 5.6Grappling0.0 / 3.2Wrestling0.0 / 2.2Submission0.0 / 2.5Pressure0.0 / 5.9
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
0.0
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
4.1
0.0
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
3.2
0.0
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
2.2
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
2.5
0.0
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
5.9
0.0
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
5.6
Martinez
Strike Zones
Nolan
Martinez
Attacking
6HEAD7BODY5LEGS18 landed
Absorbing
14HEAD13BODY6LEGS33 absorbed
Nolan
Attacking
14HEAD13BODY6LEGS33 landed
Absorbing
6HEAD7BODY5LEGS18 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Martinez targets the body (39% of attacks) — Nolan absorbs 39% of strikes there
🎯Nolan targets the head (42% of attacks) — Martinez absorbs 42% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Martinez
RND
Nolan
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0

Martinez · QOF Timeline

Avg: 3.0
0103.0L3.0L2023-022024-05
WinLossTrend

Nolan · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.5
0102.1L5.0W4.5W5.0W6.1W2024-012024-052024-082025-022025-09
WinLossTrend

Martinez · Last 2

L · KO · R1
Tom NolanRating 3
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Barboza vs. Murphy · 2024-05
L · KO · R1
Jordan LeavittRating 3
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Muniz vs. Allen · 2023-02

Nolan · Last 5

Upcoming
Fares Ziam
UFC Fight Night: Muhammad vs. Bonfim · 2026-06
W · Sub · R1
Charlie CampbellRating 6.1
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Ulberg vs. Reyes · 2025-09
W · Dec · R3
Viacheslav BorshchevRating 5
Decision
UFC 312: Du Plessis vs. Strickland 2 · 2025-02
W · Dec · R3
Alex ReyesRating 4.5
Decision
UFC 305: Du Plessis vs. Adesanya · 2024-08
W · KO · R1
Victor MartinezRating 5
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Barboza vs. Murphy · 2024-05

News & Media

Victor Martinez · Tom Nolan
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